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Using Andrew McCutchen as a window into the Pirates' payroll situation

Peter Diana/Post-Gazette

Using Andrew McCutchen as a window into the Pirates' payroll situation

OXON HILL, Md. — “Our market size dictates our revenue stream,” Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said this morning on the radio with MLB on TuneIn Live hosts Ned Colletti, a former executive, and Holden Kushner. Huntington was discussing why the Pirates have had discussions with other teams about Andrew McCutchen, and that issue can be good window into the Pirates’ finances.

This entire thing is predicated upon the assumption that the Pirates won’t re-sign McCutchen when his contract expires after the 2018 season. Part of this is based in prudence — long-term extensions for players into their mid-to-late 30s don’t usually end well — but it is also based in the budget Huntington has to work with. The Pirates increased their payroll each year from 2011-15 and we should know within the next couple of weeks where their ‘16 payroll finish.

I’ve learned never to say never, but it would represent a drastic departure for chairman Bob Nutting and Huntington to agree to the type of contract McCutchen can earn on the open market. Jacoby Ellsbury got seven years and $153 million, and Yoenis Cespedes just got four years and $110 million.

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“Our situation is simple,” Huntington said. “We're a small market. We need to do some things that the large markets and medium markets don't need to do, and that's entertain trading players as great as Andrew McCutchen is as they near free agency. He's two years out, and if our most impactful move is something with Andrew this offseason, than so be it. If it's next July, if it's next offseason, or if our most impactful move is to allow him to continue to be a great player in the outfield for the Pittsburgh Pirates.”

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Here’s a look at the Pirates’ current payroll commitments for 2017.

PLAYERS UNDER CONTRACT

McCutchen: $14 million
Francisco Cervelli: $9 million
Josh Harrison: $7.5 million
Antonio Bastardo: $6.5 million
David Freese: $6.25 million
Starling Marte: $5 million
John Jaso: $4 million
Jung Ho Kang: $2.75 million
Chris Stewart: $1.4 million
Gregory Polanco: $1 million
Wade LeBlanc: $750,000
Lisalverto Bonilla: $575,000

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Total: $58,725,000

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE (with MLB Trade Rumors salary projections)

Tony Watson: $5.9 million
Juan Nicasio: $4.6 million
Jared Hughes: $2.5 million
Jordy Mercer: $4.0 million
Drew Hutchison: $2.2 million
Gerrit Cole: $4.2 million

Total: $23.4 million

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Which brings us to: $82,125,000, so figure $80 million to $85 million with variance in arbitration salaries.

PRE-ARBITRATION PLAYERS

There will be seven players making at or near the major league minimum, which this year increases to $535,000. Assuming seven salaries with an average of $550,000, that’s an additional $3.85 million.

Which brings us to: $83.85 million to $88.85 million.

REST OF 40-MAN ROSTER

Currently, we know that the new CBA increased the minimum minor league salary for players in their second year on the 40-man or with at least a day of major league service time to $86,500. That won’t apply to the entire 40-man but to keep it simple let’s say it does and that adds another $1.3 million.

Which brings us to: $85 million to $90 million.

That’s what is already committed to next year’s 40-man roster. Where could it go?

It opened this season at $100.3 million, according to the Associated Press. The AP will release season-ending numbers in a couple weeks, but it will finish lower than it could have because of the Francisco Liriano trade. From 2010 to ‘15 it increased an average of $10 million a year. They finished at $95.9 million last year. MLB revenue is increasing and the current revenue sharing model is still in place (reports suggest the new CBA changed it; it’s unclear when those changes go into effect), so is $110-$115 million out of the question?

Teams usually allow for $5-10 million for in-season promotions and sometimes save some money for trade deadline acquisitions, but the Pirates’ track record in recent years suggests several million dollars available to spend. A source told me last week they are in fact telling other teams that as well. 

First Published: December 6, 2016, 5:56 p.m.

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