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Stats Geek: Who Does That Pirate Remind You Of?

Stats Geek: Who Does That Pirate Remind You Of?

There are countless ways to measure a young ballplayer’s career. How does he compare to Rip Repulski? — that’s not a question that often comes up.

For fans who have watched a lot of baseball, though, the annual update of the Similarity Scores on baseball-reference.com has a timeless charm. And it turns out Pirates left fielder Starling Marte resembles no one so much at age 25 as Repulski, who played left field and some center field for the 1954 St. Louis Cardinals at that age.

No bonus points were given for both of them having way cool names.

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This statistical exercise, introduced about 15 years ago by the godfather of sabermetricians, Bill James, tallies the games played, at bats, runs scored, hits, stolen bases and other back-of-the-baseball card stuff for a given player. Then those numbers are compared to others who played his primary position.

It’s rudimentary and has clear flaws. Repulski never stole many bases, was an inch shorter and 10 pounds thicker than Marte, and never rated as a strong defensive player. But even if those aspects of comparison need refining, the overall effect of linking today’s names to the ghosts of players past can range from “I can see that” to “ridiculous’’ to “who?”

So, with the next real Pirates game more than five months away, here’s how today’s Pirates hitters compare to past players at the same age. Click on any Pirate name to get the comparable stats. You can play around with it to see how past careers progressed.

I warn you, though. It’s like eating potato chips. It’s hard to click just one.

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C Russell Martin, age 31: Frankie Hayes, Terry Kennedy, Del Crandall

   Chris Stewart, 32: Russ Nieves, Russ Gibson, Alberto Castillo

1B Ike Davis, 27: Bob Robertson, Carlos Pena, Justin Smoak

     Gaby Sanchez, 30: Pat Putnam, Greg Brock, Randy Milligan

2B Neil Walker, 28: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill, Marcus Giles

3B Josh Harrison, 26: Shea Hillenbrand, Hector Lopez, John Castino

      Pedro Alvarez, 27: Butch Hobson, Mike Pagliarulo, Graig Nettles

SS Jordy Mercer, 27: Orlando Miller, Clint Barmes, Frank Parkinson

      Clint Barmes, 35: Eddie Bressoud, Mike Heath, Marco Scutaro

LF Starling Marte, 25: Rip Repulski, Aubrey Huff, Jackie Brandt

CF Andrew McCutchen, 27: Matt Kemp, Andre Dawson, Vernon Wells

RF Travis Snider, 26: Domonic Brown, Larry Hisle, Darnell Coles

      Jose Tabata, 25: Mike Menosky, Michael Brantley, Terry Moore

      Gregory Polanco: Too few plate appearances for a comparison.

Some takeaways from this?

Does anyone think Bob Robertson is really hiding in Ike Davis? That might seem nice. But at 27, Robertson, a big right-handed slugger for the Pirates from 1967 to 1976, really had only one good season left.

McCutchen is the only Pirates hitter highly comparable to a Hall of Famer, in Dawson. Here’s hoping McCutchen doesn’t wind up frustrating fans as his other comparables, Kemp and Wells, could.

Mercer a comparable hitter to Barmes? Only because Barmes began his career in the forgiving air of Colorado.

Alvarez has two comparables whose careers quickly went in the tank, but a third in Nettles who had 16 seasons and 307 home runs to go. Next year may decide in which direction Alvarez’s career goes.

Walker’s in a decent group, though Giles was finished at age 29. Phillips also hasn’t had a 20-homer season since he was 28. Hill had productive years into his 30s, but he didn’t do much at age 32 last season. General Manager Neal Huntington will be looking at more sophisticated stats than this, but these are the things that might keep him up at night as he ponders how much the Pirates should offer Walker and for how long.

Now for the biggest question of the winter, free agent Russell Martin: The full list of his 10 comparable players includes three catchers whose careers ended with just a handful of plate appearances at age 32. Others (Kennedy, Crandall, Ramon Hernandez, Benito Santiago and Tony Pena) had four to nine more seasons left. They were mostly part-time catchers, though.

Any contract longer than three years for Martin risks seeing little return by the fourth year, but if the Pirates can get him to sign for three years, he ought to be worth the risk.

First Published: March 24, 2016, 5:05 p.m.

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