Economic center of Syria awaits battle as whispers of rebels circle

BEIRUT -- An impending battle for the northern city of Aleppo could prove to be a decisive moment for both sides in the Syrian conflict, threatening President Bashar Assad with a loss he may not survive and rebels with a rout that highlights their disorganization and lack of firepower.

Government troops and rebel forces were massing Friday around Syria's commercial capital and richest city. Until a rebel offensive swept in from the outskirts this week, the city had been relatively calm and firmly under government control.

Syrian state television played martial music and showed stock footage of fervent conscripts signing up for military service. Mr. Assad was shown in camouflage, peering into binoculars alongside military commanders. Although the footage was probably shot long ago, playing it now emphasized the importance of the moment. In a front-page headline, the pro-government Al Watan newspaper spoke of a "Mother of All Battles," for the city of 2 million people.

The United Nations human rights chief voiced "deep alarm" over the build-up of forces in Aleppo, saying it "bodes ill for the people of that city."

U.S. officials warned of a possible massacre-reminiscent of fears during last year's Libyan uprising for the rebel-city of Benghazi. Western-led air strikes destroyed Moammar Gadhafi's mechanized columns, saving the city from being overrun.

But mindful of the complexity of the Syrian conflict, Western officials have said consistently that they do not intend to intervene in Syria. That leaves government forces, heavily armed but stretched thin across the country, to battle poorly armed rebels who nevertheless appear to have seized the momentum.

Few doubt that the government will do everything it can to retain control of Aleppo, the country's economic hub, which is also the gateway to northern Syria.

"Assad can not afford to lose control of Aleppo," said Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics. "It is as important as Damascus, if not more so, to Assad's survival."

A rebel-held Aleppo could morph into a kind of Syrian Benghazi, opening the way for the rebels to control northern Syria and create an opposition safe haven just 200 miles from Damascus, the capital. The region also is close to rebel supply lines in neighboring Turkey.

"Aleppo is so strategically located, next to Turkey, that it could serve as a beachhead to attack Assad's forces elsewhere," Mr. Gerges said via email. "In a word, the loss of Aleppo would effectively mean the beginning of the end of Assad's rule."

On Friday, the people of Aleppo lived with profound apprehension as rumors swirled of an impending assault.

Many residents fled the city and others moved to districts judged safer, staying in mosques, schools or parks, said one opposition activist.

"There is great fear for what the regime is preparing for Aleppo," said an opposition activist who, like others contacted, did not want to be identified for security reasons.

The opposition reported another day of attacks by helicopter gunships and intense shelling, especially in the rebel-held southern district of Firdous. Video uploaded onto YouTube and said to be from the Firdous area depicts a cameraman in sandals striding through blood-stained streets and residents carrying bloodied and mangled bodies from the scene.