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Saturday, April 05, 2003

By Jack Kelly, Post-Gazette National Security Writer

DOHA, QATAR -- After U.S. forces consolidate their control around Baghdad, the final assault on the Iraqi capital is likely to feature a new type of "intelligence-driven" urban warfare, in which American troops attempt a reversal of roles -- conducting hit-and-run raids, like guerrilla fighters, on key targets so as not to get bogged down in street-by-street gun battles.

	U.S. Army soldiers search buildings yesterday at an Iraqi military compound south of Baghdad. Troops from A Company, 3rd Battalion, 7th Infantry Regiment destroyed abandoned Iraqi military vehicles and helicopter parts in the compound. (John Moore, Associated Press)

There will be no siege. There will no gaining control of outer neighborhoods and then moving slowly toward the center. There will be few opportunities for Special Republican Guards or other last-ditch supporters of Saddam Hussein to pick apart U.S. forces with automatic weapons or rocket-propelled grenades from doorways or rooftops, as Somali fighters did in Mogadishu.

Planners at Central Command and other military tacticians envision a collection of fluid, fast-moving attacks aimed at keeping Saddam's defenders off-balance. When the coalition gets good intelligence on where certain leaders are located -- from high-tech devices or friendly Iraqis -- they'll storm in, attack, storm back out. When they're ready to grab key installations -- military headquarters, power plants, communications centers -- they'll surge in and set up a defensible perimeter, forcing Saddam's fighters onto the offense and into the open.

Some coalition raids might involve air assaults and small contingents of Special Forces. Others might involve movements in force, with combined air, armor and ground attacks -- especially in the central government districts and elite residential areas, where wide boulevards offer direct, defensible routes for U.S. armored columns.

Disparate neighborhoods will be treated differently, depending on their layout, ethnic makeup and collection of targets. The Saddam City slum in the east, for instance, has the narrowest streets and would be the most difficult urban battleground, but it is populated by Shiites who were repressed under Saddam and might welcome U.S. forces.

The British are already modeling this urban-warfare technique to the south in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city, conducting air and ground raids on the regime targets that remain and then pulling out of the central city to plan the next assault. The idea is to slowly squeeze Saddam's remaining fighters, while minimizing casualties among both coalition forces and civilians.

Gen. Richard Meyers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, mentioned Thursday the likelihood that U.S. forces would seize key facilities in Baghdad, such as electric power and water pumping stations, perhaps even the broadcast facilities of the Information Ministry.

Such seizures would be done as much for their political and psychological effects as for their military value. The purpose would be to de-legitimize the regime by making it increasingly irrelevant. The people of Baghdad would still have water and power, but their utilities would be under new management.

As many as 20,000 Special Republican Guards, as well as other forces, might remain prepared to fight in Baghdad. Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks of Central Command said the Republican Guard units in the vicinity of Baghdad have dispersed, but he couldn't say how many soldiers had deserted and how many might have repositioned themselves in smaller groups to defend the city.

Regardless, it would be difficult for regime supporters to counter U.S. seizures of key facilities or hit-and-run attacks. If the Republican Guard no longer exists as a cohesive fighting force, Saddam can no longer conduct large coordinated military operations.

Small pockets of well-armed men can be dangerous when defending a building or a city block. But they would have a hard time coping with seemingly instantaneous attacks at night from above and on the ground. And to retake well-defended facilities captured by American forces, they would have to move, exposing themselves to withering U.S. fire.

The capture of Baghdad International Airport, just 12 miles from the center of the capital, confers important military advantages on the coalition in carrying out such an urban-warfare strategy. Baghdad International likely will become a base for Special Operations forces, attack helicopters and A-10 ground-attack aircraft. Some elements of the helicopter-heavy 101st Airborne Division also may be stationed there. The airport's long runways can easily accommodate C-17 and C-130 transport planes as well, making it possible for the United States to bring in fresh troops, heavy equipment and supplies of all kinds.

The Marines this week also captured an airport less than 50 miles from Baghdad, outside of Kut. It will likely serve as a base for Harrier jump jets, Cobra attack helicopters and helicopter-borne infantry.

From these close-in airfields, U.S. forces will be able to launch airborne attacks and land ground troops within minutes anywhere in the Baghdad city limits.

How long the battle for Baghdad lasts and how difficult it will be depends mainly on how hard Iraqis fight. Resistance might be tenacious, as promised by the Iraqi information minister, and the regime did launch a fierce but quickly defeated counterattack yesterday on U.S. forces at Baghdad International Airport.

But the Marines also reported yesterday that 2,500 Republican Guard soldiers -- chiefly from the now-defunct Baghdad Division -- surrendered to them.

Boston Globe reporter Scott Nelson, embedded with one of the Marine units, described seeing roadside ditches filled with discarded Republican Guard uniforms, and said: "It appears that a significant part of the Republican Guard decided not to fight at the end."

Jack Kelly can be reached at jkelly@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1476.