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Thursday, March 27, 2003

Philadelphia Phillies

2002: 80-81, third place, 21 1/2 games

behind.

Manager: Larry Bowa, third season.

Key newcomers: 1B Jim Thome, 3B David Bell, RHP Kevin Millwood.

Key departures: INF Marlon Anderson, C Johnny Estrada, RHP Robert Person, 1B Travis Lee.

PROBABLE BATTING ORDER

SS -- Jimmy Rollins (.245, 11 HR, 60 RBI in 2002)

2B -- Placido Polanco (.288, 9, 49)

RF -- Bobby Abreu (.308, 20, 85)

1B -- Jim Thome (.304, 52, 118)

LF -- Pat Burrell (.282, 37, 116)

3B -- David Bell (.261, 20, 73)

C -- Mike Lieberthal (.279, 15, 52)

CF -- Marlon Byrd (.229, 1, 1)

PITCHING ROTATION

RHP -- Kevin Millwood (18-8, 3.24)

LHP -- Randy Wolf (11-9, 3.20)

RHP -- Vicente Padilla (14-11, 3.28)

RHP -- Brett Myers (4-5, 4.25)

RHP -- Brandon Duckworth (8-9, 5.41)

Closer: RHP Jose Mesa (4-6, 45 saves, 2.97)

Should finish: First. Maybe a shaky pick -- after all, it appeared Atlanta was ripe to be taken last season -- but General Manager Ed Wade accomplished a lot during the off-season and the Phillies would love to win at least a division championship in their final year at the Vet and take that momentum into their new stadium in 2004. ... Thome, to whom the Phillies are obligated to pay $85 million over the next six years, is a significant upgrade over Travis Lee. And Bell (four-year, $17 milllion contract), while not Scott Rolen, isn't chopped Phillie streak, either. Bowa loves the winning attitude these two players bring to a team that slipped last season. Phillies led the majors in runners left on base with 1,260 last season. Thome and Bell, who batted .317 with runners in scoring position, should lower that total considerably. ... Bowa was named Manager of the Year in 2001 when the Phillies finished 86-76 and in second place, two games behind Atlanta. They were 21 1/2 behind the Braves last season, but that was due more to Atlanta's great play than to a collapse by the Phillies. ... Millwood, 16-3 with a 2.64 earned run average in his final 25 starts in 2002, will anchor a rotation that should do nothing but improve in the next two years. ... Mesa, who will turn 37 in May, will be a large factor in whether the Phillies actually do unseat the Braves. If he's as reliable as he's been -- he converted 87 of 100 save chances in his first two seasons in Philadelphia -- the Phillies can do it. If he falters or is injured, maybe they can't. Carlos Silva, who had a 3.21 earned run average in 68 appearances in 2002, probably is the closer-in-waiting. ... Have a 13-game trip to Milwaukee, St. Louis, Montreal and New York beginning Aug. 19. . .Phillies phinish the season with three against Atlanta in Philadelphia. That could be some real phun.

Atlanta Braves

2002: 101-59, first place, 19

games ahead of Montreal, lost to

San Francisco in five games in a

division series.

Manager: Bobby Cox, 18th

season.

Key newcomers: LHP Mike

Hampton, RHP Paul Byrd, RHP Russ Ortiz, LHP Ray King, C Johnny Estrada, 1B Robert Fick, LHP Mike Venafro.

Key departures: LHP Tom Glavine, 1B Julio Franco, LHP Chris Hammond, INF Wes Helms, RHP Kerry Ligtenberg, INF Keith Lockhart, RHP Albie Lopez, RHP Kevin Millwood, LHP Damian Moss, LHP Mike Remlinger, RHP Tim Spooneybarger.

PROBABLE BATTING ORDER

SS -- Rafael Furcal (.275, 8, 47)

1B -- Robert Fick (.270, 17, 63)

RF -- Gary Sheffield (.307, 25, 84)

LF -- Chipper Jones (.327, 26, 100)

CF -- Andruw Jones (.264, 35, 94)

C -- Javy Lopez (.233, 11, 52)

3B -- Vinny Castilla (.232, 12, 61)

2B -- Marcus Giles (.230, 8, 23)

PITCHING ROTATION

RHP -- Greg Maddux (16-6, 2.62)

LHP -- Mike Hampton (7-15, 6.15)

RHP -- Paul Byrd (17-11, 3.90)

RHP -- Russ Ortiz (14-10, 3.61)

RHP -- Jason Marquis (8-9, 5.04)

Closer: RHP John Smoltz (3-2, 55 saves, 3.25).

Should finish: Second. At least they will be second in one of these next couple of seasons. Last year, the Braves seemed vulnerable. Their victory totals had dropped from 103 in 1999 to 95 in 2000 and then to 88 in 2001 -- the team's fewest wins since it finished 65-97 in 1990. But Cox, with a huge assist from Smoltz, directed this team to those 101 wins last season. Still, the Braves didn't win the World Series, the 10th time in this 11-year run of success that has happened. ... General Manager John Schuerholz had to do some major repair work this winter with the loss of free agent Glavine to the Mets and the budget-dictated trade of Millwood to Philadelphia. He brought in Hampton, Byrd and Ortiz to shore up the rotation. Byrd has been bothered this spring by a tender elbow. King, who limited left-handers to a .219 batting average last year, will help make up for the losses of lefties Hammond and Remlinger in the bullpen. ... Braves had a mediocre offense in 2002. They finished 12th in the league in stolen bases and runners left on base, 10th in runs scored and total bases, ninth in team batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage and eighth in home runs. Those rankings probably have to improve if the Braves are to win again this season because this isn't the strong rotation we've come to expect in Atlanta. Fick certainly should provide help . . .Braves were 47-28 against their division and 49-31 on the road in 2002.

New York Mets

2002: 75-86, fifth place, 26 1/2 games behind.

Manager: Art Howe, first

season.

Key newcomers: LHP Tom Glavine, OF Cliff Floyd, INF Rey Sanchez, LHP Mike Stanton, OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo, INF Jay Bell.

Key departures: INF Edgardo Alfonzo, RHP Jeff D'Amico, LHP Mark Guthrie, SS Rey Ordonez, OF Tony Tarasco.

PROBABLE BATTING ORDER

CF -- Roger Cedeno (.260, 7, 41)

2B -- Roberto Alomar (.266, 11, 53)

C -- Mike Piazza (.280, 33, 98)

1B -- Mo Vaughn (.259, 26, 72)

LF -- Cliff Floyd (.275, 21, 61)

RF -- Jeromy Burnitz (.215, 19, 54)

3B -- Ty Wigginton (.302, 6, 18)

SS -- Rey Sanchez (.286, 1, 38)

PICHING ROTATION

LHP -- Tom Glavine (18-11, 2.96)

LHP -- Al Leiter (13-13, 3.48),

RHP -- Steve Trachsel (11-11, 3.37)

RHP -- Pedro Astacio (12-11, 4.79)

LHP -- Mike Bacsik (3-2, 4.37)

Closer: RHP Armando Benitez (1-0, 33 saves, 2.27).

Should finish: Third. Howe's presence will eliminate the sometimes circus-like atmosphere in the Mets' clubhouse during Bobby Valentine's run in the manager's office. ... Victory total in 2002 was team's lowest since a 71-win effort in 1996. ... Glavine is an outstanding fit in a rotation that helped Mets produce a 3.89 team earned run average, fifth-best in the National League last year. ... GM Steve Phillips, in the final year of his contract, also helped his chances of staying beyond this season by bringing in Floyd and Stanton. Floyd will help improve an offense that ranked 13th in runs scored. Stanton, who came over from the Yankees, will provide quality setup help for a bullpen that produced only 36 saves, also 13th in the league. ... The fate of David Cone, 40, is expected to come in a meeting with Mets brass Saturday. ... Mets need much stronger offensive seasons from Alomar, Vaughn and Burnitz. ... And they need to pick it up defensively. Their 144 errors were the most in the major leagues. Piazza threw out only 18 percent of would-be base stealers. ... Trachsel was a flop early in his Mets career, but he's 20-14 with a 3.14 earned run average since the 2001 All-Star break. ... Mets were 21-34 in their final 55 games. ... Mets endured a 15-game losing streak at home, one reason they were 38-43 at Shea Stadium. ... Sanchez will play shortstop only until switch-hitting phenom Jose Reyes arrives, which some people think might be after the All-Star break. ... Mets were 21-33 in day games and 54-53 at night.

Montreal Expos

2002: 83-79, second place, 19 games behind.

Manager: Frank Robinson, second

season.

Key newcomers: RHP Orlando Hernandez, RHP Livan Hernandez, 1B Jeff Liefer, RHP Rocky Biddle.

Key departures: RHP Bartolo Colon, 1B Andres Galarraga, RHP Matt Herges, RHP Jim Brower.

PROBABLE BATTING ORDER

CF -- Endy Chavez (.296, 1, 9 )

SS -- Orlando Cabrera (.263, 7, 56)

2B -- Jose Vidro (.315, 19, 96)

RF -- Vladimir Guerrero (.336, 39, 111)

LF -- Brad Wilkerson (.266, 20, 59)

1B -- Jeff Liefer (.230, 7, 26)

3B -- Fernando Tatis (.228, 15, 55)

C -- Michael Barrett (.263, 12, 49)

PICHING ROTATION

RHP -- Javier Vazquez (10-13, 3.91)

RHP -- Tomo Ohka (13-8, 3.18)

RHP -- Tony Armas Jr. (12-12, 4.44)

RHP -- Orlando Hernandez (8-5, 3.64)

RHP -- Livan Hernandez (12-16, 4.38)

Closer: LHP Scott Stewart (4-2, 17 saves, 3.09).

Should finish: Fourth. Heck, this team thought it WAS finished before last season, but won 83 games under the most trying of circumstances -- not the least of which was playing 81 home games in a city where virtually nobody cared. Expos' attendance in Olympic Stadium was 812,545. Still, Montreal was 49-32 at home. ... Expos won't be 49-32 in Montreal this season, though. They're scheduled to play 22 games in San Juan. And they won't play their first game of the 2003 season in Montreal until April 22. The Expos are scheduled to open the season with a nine-game trip to Atlanta, New York and Chicago. After a day game at Wrigley Field April 10, they'll fly to San Juan and begin a 16-game "homestand" with 10 games in Puerto Rico against the Mets (4), Atlanta (3) and Cincinnati (3). Then they'll fly to Montreal for three games against Arizona and three with Houston. ... The Expos also visit San Juan for "homestands" in early June and early September. ... Did little to change its team during the off-season but did trade for Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez and brother Livan to help make up for the loss of Bartolo Colon. Orlando Hernandez has been bothered by shoulder tendinitis this spring ... Montreal has one of the best players in the game in Guerrero, who missed, by one home run, becoming the fourth player to have a 40-home run, 40-steal season. Guerrero is eligible for free agency after this season, so his days in Montreal -- and San Juan -- probably are numbered. Guerrero batted .355 against the four teams that made the playoffs and finished in the top 10 in 18 offensive categories in the National League.

Florida Marlins

2002: 79-83, fourth place, 23 games

behind.

Manager: Jeff Torborg, second season.

Key newcomers: OF Todd Hollandsworth, OF Juan Pierre, LHP Mark Redman, C Ivan Rodriguez, RHP Tim Spooneybarger.

Key departures: C Charles Johnson, OF Kevin Millar, RHP Julian Tavarez, OF Preston Wilson.

PROBABLE BATTING ORDER

2B -- Luis Castillo (.305, 2, 39)

CF -- Juan Pierre (.287, 1, 35)

C -- Ivan Rodriguez (.314, 19, 60)

1B -- Derrek Lee (.270, 27, 86)

3B -- Mike Lowell (.276, 24, 92)

RF -- Juan Encarnacion (.271, 24, 85)

LF -- Todd Hollandsworth (.295, 11, 48)

SS -- Alex Gonzalez (.225, 2, 18)

PITCHING ROTATION

RHP -- A.J. Burnett (12-9, 3.30)

RHP -- Brad Penny (8-7, 4.66)

RHP -- Josh Beckett (6-7, 4.10)

LHP -- Mark Redman (8-15, 4.21)

RHP -- Carl Pavano (6-10, 5.16)

Closer: RHP Braden Looper (2-5, 13 saves, 3.14).

Should finish: Fifth. Although very few will notice -- or care -- in Miami. This team played in front of a ton of empty seats last season and ought to be another candidate for contraction when -- or if -- that really ever happens. Major League Baseball should strongly consider contracting both the Marlins and Devil Rays and combining them into one franchise located in Orlando. Marlins attendance of 813,118 topped that of the Expos' by an average of seven "fans" per home game. ... Since winning the World Series in 1997 and then dumping salary drastically, the Marlins have always had great young players whom they can't keep. Their young pitching is outstanding but it never seems to make a difference. The Marlins followed their 1997 success with 54 wins in 1998. That jumped to 64 the next season and to 79 in 2000. But the Marlins have stagnated. They had 76 wins in 2001 and 79 last year. ... Thirteenth in the league in home runs and 12th in slugging percentage, the Marlins are moving toward becoming a pitching-speed-defense team. With Pierre coming from Colorado, the Marlins, who led the major leagues with a club-record 177 stolen bases, boast the top two base stealers in the majors from 2002 -- Castillo (48) and Pierre (47). ... First baseman Lee is developing into a potential superstar, but he struck out 164 times last year, third-most in the league. ... Marlins had no rainouts at home in 2002 for the first time in franchise history. ... Have a 12-game trip beginning May 12 that takes them to San Diego, Los Angeles, Montreal and Cincinnati.