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Sunday, April 27, 2003

By James O'Toole, Post-Gazette Politics Editor

To supporters of Sen. Rick Santorum, the controversy over his statements on homosexuality and the law come as an unwelcome distraction at a time in which his star has been on the ascent.

Santorum has not just risen to become the No. 3 Republican in the U.S. Senate, but he has also become as an increasingly dominant figure within the state Republican Party.

While in office, former Gov. Tom Ridge was unchallenged as the top Republican in Pennsylvania. But Ridge's move to the relatively apolitical job of Homeland Security secretary left a vacuum at the top of the party that benefited Santorum more than anyone else.

Santorum, the state's junior senator, has emerged as perhaps the most influential figure within the state party because of his appeal to the GOP's conservative base and his central role in the redistricting plan that gave Republicans a big majority in the state's congressional delegation.

"People were looking for leadership after Ridge left, that's one thing," one senior GOP strategist said of Santorum's rising intraparty-clout. "Number two was that he was ascending nationally [in the Senate], and then in the redistricting battle."

Redistricting was the responsibility of the state Legislature's Republican leadership. Santorum weighed in on the process, however, lobbying for significant change designed to maximize GOP strength in Western Pennsylvania.

Rep. John Perzel, R-Philadelphia, then the Republican majority leader and now the speaker of the House, initially balked at the Santorum plan. But, after minor changes designed to accommodate Rep. John Murtha, D-Johnstown, most of the Santorum map became law, and will govern the state congressional elections for the rest of the decade.

The initial result was a delegation that had been nearly evenly split -- 11 to 10 in favor of the GOP -- emerged with the lopsided Republican majority of 12-7.

"The point that people saw was that he rolled up his sleeves and worked the process," said Terry Madonna, a Millersville University political scientist and commentator on state politics.

One Santorum ally, Rep. Melissa Hart, R-Bradford Woods, remained secure in a district north of Pittsburgh, while another, Rep. Tim Murphy, R-Upper St. Clair, cruised to victory in a district custom drawn for him south of the city. Their twin victories were an effective rebuttal to GOP voices in Harrisburg who had challenged Santorum's redistricting proposal. Those Republicans argued that the more prudent course would have been to use Republican-leaning communities to fashion one secure GOP district, rather than take the opportunity to create two competitive districts.

"He did something that [Sen. Arlen] Specter would never do," Madonna said. "Specter sticks to Washington and brings home the bacon, but he's not a player within the party the way Santorum is."

The exchanges of last week leave the question of whether controversy over Santorum's vividly stated conservative views on homosexuality and the right to privacy -- or lack thereof -- will derail either his leadership position in the Senate or his influence as a player in state politics up and down the ballot.

Speaking about a pending Supreme Court case, Santorum told The Associated Press, "If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual [gay] sex, within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery, you have the right to anything."

Santorum also criticized the line of legal reasoning that finds an implicit right to privacy in the Constitution.

While Santorum's voting record has been consistently conservative, he has taken some pains to soften his hard edges in recent years. That approach was evident in his 2000 victory over former Rep. Ron Klink, as Santorum's television advertising portrayed a genial family man rather than a partisan firebrand.

While President Bush was losing the state that year to Al Gore, Santorum won by more than 6 percentage points.

A recent Keystone Poll, a survey conducted by Madonna, found Santorum with a 46 percent to 23 percent ratio of favorable to unfavorable assessments among the state's voters -- trailing but in the same ballpark as the evaluations of Gov. Ed Rendell. That survey, however, was taken just before the controversy over Santorum's statements in the AP interview.

"My hunch is that it might not have made all that much difference," Madonna speculated on how the numbers might have been changed had the survey been taken after the senator's statements were publicized. "I don't know that this has sunk in with the general public."

Democrats and gay and lesbian groups continue to stoke outrage at Santorum's remarks. They have been joined by criticism from several prominent Republicans, including Sens. Olympia Snowe of Maine and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island. But so far, there have been no calls from senior Republicans for Santorum to relinquish his leadership post as chairman of the Republican conference.

The White House issued a vote of confidence in Santorum Friday. "The president has confidence in the senator and believes he's doing a good job as senator," as well as in his No. 3 Senate GOP leadership post, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said.

But that statement, like one issued by Sen. Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader, was couched as an endorsement of Santorum personally, rather than of the specific quotations that sparked the controversy.

Brad Coker, the president of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, has conducted surveys for both of Santorum's statewide races. He sees no problem for the senator with his Republican base, but sees at least the possibility of lingering damage with independent voters. He also noted that the controversy could be a hurdle to the possibility that Santorum would end up on a presidential ticket at some point in the future.

"I don't think it would hurt him in any way shape or form in a primary, where the more conservative wing of the party, as in so many states, is dominant," Coker said.

"But this is an issue that could affect the middle-of-the-road swing voters, including moderate to liberal Republicans. And if your talking about a national ticket, even 10 years down the road, it could come back to haunt him."

John Brabender, Santorum's media strategist, maintained that, "From what I can see, this isn't going anywhere. The calls, the numbers of media interviews, have really dwindled. There's still a little bit of wait and see in this, but I will say to you that this is something that doesn't resonate with most people the way things like jobs and Social Security do."