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Wednesday, February 12, 2003

By Ann McFeatters, Post-Gazette National Bureau

WASHINGTON -- In the 1991 Persian Gulf War, which the U.S. military dubbed Operation Desert Storm, the Pentagon has estimated that 3,500 civilians were killed. Most analysts in Washington expect that the toll in a second war with Iraq could be much higher.

At a Brookings Institution forum yesterday, Ken Bacon, the Pentagon's spokesman from 1994 until 2001 and now president of Refugees International, said there are several reasons to expect what he called "vastly higher" civilian casualties. He said those include Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's possible resort to chemical and biological weapons, potential use of civilians as shields, anticipated placement of likely military targets inside Iraqi schools and hospitals and the likelihood that a ground war this time will last much longer than the prior confrontation's 100 hours.

Nonetheless, Bacon said the Pentagon can be expected to make efforts to reduce civilian casualties including U.S. employment of far more accurate weapons, careful targeting away from civilian areas -- aiming to avoid electrical generators or water reservoirs -- and cordoning off Baghdad, the Iraqi capital. He also predicted that it will be necessary after the war ends to rebuild Iraq and provide food, medical care and water to hold down civilian deaths.

In another setting yesterday, current Pentagon spokeswoman Torie Clarke said the U.S. military was convinced that Saddam Hussein would use civilians in the "most cynical" way and might also be preparing to set afire oil fields once again, as it did in Kuwait in 1991, ensuring that post-war Iraq would be without resources.

Victor Tanner, a Johns Hopkins University faculty member and a consultant on humanitarian issues, said he most fears that as the military effort winds down, there will be little protection for the Iraqi people from rival tensions likely to be ignited among long-repressed groups such as the Kurds, Turkmen and Shiite Arabs. He said violence could "spiral out of control," especially with the likelihood of reprisals for years of abuse and torture by security forces.

Christophe Girod of the International Committee of the Red Cross directed the 1991 Red Cross effort in Iraq. He said it is imperative for the United States to understand that the rules of war mandate that if the U.S. military occupies Iraq, it must then maintain law and order; protect women from rape; feed, shelter and clothe civilians; and provide access for the Red Cross.

There is widespread anger in Washington over what many regard as the United Nations' failure to prepare humanitarian aid for post-war Iraq. Sandra Mitchell, the International Rescue Committee's vice president for government relations, said she thought the U.N. reluctance stemmed from not wanting to appear to be preparing for war when many member-nations are still arguing that the Iraq arms inspection regime needs more time.

Roy Gutman, senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, director of American University's Crimes of War Project and Newsweek magazine's chief diplomatic correspondent, said it is imperative that journalists be free to report in post-war Iraq to monitor what happens and possibly prevent atrocities such as the killing of prisoners by ethnic captors. He said war crimes will be committed by Saddam Hussein and his forces, not the U.S. military.

William Nash, a retired major general who saw Gulf war combat and now is director of the Center for Preventive Action and a Council on Foreign Relations member, agreed. "I'm very confident they [the U.S. military] understand the laws of war better than journalists understand the laws of time. War is a horrific event.

"Should there be war in Iraq," Nash said, "it will be a bloody affair, and it will be a shock to Iraq and to many in the United States. The start of war will be abrupt and seemingly brutal."

After combat, he said, the main problem the military will have is going from a state of excellent military intelligence in battle to near-blindness -- not knowing where the next threats may come from, not knowing the local leaders or the political lay of the land nor if a dead body is the victim of an ordinary crime or of ethnic violence as the infrastructure has fallen apart.

Gutman said the Pentagon is already "blue-skying" the coming conflict, even suggesting that troops could be out of Iraq in 60 to 90 days. This administration is "viscerally opposed to nation-building," he said, while adding that it is exactly the direction the president is going with his Iraq policy. "The Department of Defense is in charge and has all but shut down the State Department's Future of Iraq Project. You need all hands on deck. I'm baffled they're operating this way."

While some suggest that non-governmental organizations and allies who now oppose going to war will be called on to provide humanitarian assistance, Tanner said: "The only actor in terms of security will be the U.S.-led coalition. [Non-governmental organizations] will not be on the ground and will not be operational. They will have no logistical knowledge. The U.S. military will need good contacts and good local intelligence and the realization they'll be the main actors," possibly for months.

Nash said the 4 million Iraqis living outside Iraq and the 24 million still there must help. "Otherwise, we'll put a puppet in place," justifying al-Qaida terrorist network leader Osama bin Laden's prediction that the United States is intent on dominating the Middle East and ultimately leading to further destabilization in the region.