When a good team goes bad, it's ugly enough, but when a bad team gets worse, it's hard to remember what good parts even existed.

The Pirates' 2-13 run since the All-Star break features the same tired plots and listless characters. Figuring out the ending of any given game is about as tough as solving a "Scooby-Doo" mystery, and failure has been nothing if not a team effort.

No Pirate in 2007 is hitting better than the average player at his position except Xavier Nady and Ryan Doumit, and Doumit's edge has shrunken considerably by going 5 for 38 since the break. Even Freddy Sanchez, despite a freakish power surge, still trails the average NL second baseman in on-base average and slugging average.

Nady, Doumit and the injured Jose Bautista also are the only Pirates regulars who have topped their career OPS (on-base plus slugging average) this season, and Bautista is included only because his career OPS is artificially low due to his Rule 5 odyssey through four major-league rosters at age 23.

For most other Pirates, we're talking about failing to rise to past levels of mediocrity, but my vote for the year's biggest disappointment goes to the man leading the team in runs, total bases, walks, home runs and runs batted in.

In that sense, and only that sense, Jason Bay is having his typical year. But as he ever so tentatively emerges from the worst slump of his career, the question remains: Whatever happened to Jason Bay?

How bad have these past two months been? Not only are both Bay's June and July worse than any single month in his career, Bay's OPS for the season (.761) is worse than any single month in his career before 2007.

He has been called a streaky hitter, but Bay's previous slumps wouldn't last more than a week or so before he'd break out again. The Pirates would be a much better team if everyone slumped the way Bay did in previous years, because he still produced even when hits fell in less frequently. His worst OPS for a month before this season was June 2006, when he hit .248 but with a .350 on-base average and .426 slugging average for an OPS of .776.

Suddenly this summer:

 

AVG

OBA

SLG

OPS

June

.173

.252

.316

.568

July

.205

.273

.359

.632

That July OPS is still better than Jose Castillo has done in 153 games since June 1 of last year (.230/.270/.328/.598), but it is not what we expect from Bay.

He was among baseball's most productive outfielders the past two seasons. Among major-leaguers who played at least 75 percent of their games in the outfield in 2005 and '06, Bay was sixth in home runs with 67, sixth in RBIs with 210, fourth in runs scored with 211, second in times on base with 557, second in total bases with 149 and third in OPS+, which adjusts for the ballpark. Among outfielders with at least 1,000 plate appearances, only Manny Ramirez (162) and Vladimir Guerrero (149) topped Bay's 142 in OPS+. That figure essentially means Bay was 42 percent better than the average hitter.

Bay's consistency was further exemplified by having at least 30 home runs, 100 RBIs and 100 runs in consecutive seasons. Before his June swoon, Bay seemed well on his way to a third consecutive year of that trifecta. Only Ralph Kiner (who did it five years in a row, 1947-51) had done that for the Pirates. Consider that another safe Kiner record now.

Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus wrote a profile of Bay last week suggesting he has lost his pull power. His percentage of extra-base hits has been sinking, he is hitting a lot of ground balls to the left side, and more of his home runs are going to right field, all signs that Bay has lost bat speed.

That might be, but Bay was hitting .312/.382/.540 through June 3, so this was more crash than slowdown. That Bay remains on pace to drive in more than 100 runs is only another argument that the RBI is less telling than rate statistics, because anyone watching this season doesn't really need to see the stat line to know that Bay at .253/.328/.433 has been no better than an average hitter.

Where Bay's game goes from here is far more important to the Pirates' future than who they might get for a middle reliever at the trade deadline. Statistically comparable hitters to Bay through age 28 include players with long, productive careers such as Norm Cash, Jim Edmonds and Ryan Klesko. But there are also Bobby Higginson and Aubrey Huff, whose hitting sank suddenly.

As the Pirates organization enjoys another highly profitable season, even as its fans endure a 15th consecutive losing year, it would be nice for everyone if this terrific hitter put his game back together. If Bay can't do that, the Pirates might as well tear this team apart and start over.

Actually, they have to think about that either way. Enjoy the homestand, everybody.

First Published: July 31, 2007, 3:15 a.m.