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Stats Geek: Pirates need No.2 hitter with clout

Stats Geek: Pirates need No.2 hitter with clout

Only twice this season have the Pirates opened the game by getting their first two runners on.

Matt Lawton walked April 12 in Milwaukee, but was caught stealing before Jack Wilson singled. No runs scored.

April 27 at PNC Park, Lawton, Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay hit consecutive singles against the Houston Astros' Andy Petitte, with Lawton scoring for the only run of the inning.

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That's it. With nearly a third of the season in the books, the table-setters have opened the game the way they should exactly twice. It's little wonder the Pirates are outscored so often in the first inning.

The problem is not the leadoff hitter, but the No. 2 man, who has consistently hit like, ahem, No. 2 this season.

The Stats Geek was on this a month ago, back when adjustments were being made. But, after a handful of other candidates failed to hit better than Jack Wilson in more than a dozen games, the job was handed back to Wilson. He appears to have lost it again, which should mean more runs for the Pirates. But manager Lloyd McClendon has to start thinking of this as a place to put good hitters, not a place for potentially "productive outs.''

Pirates No. 2 hitters are hitting .167 with a .202 on-base average and .230 slugging average. That's last in the league. Pirates pitchers, meantime, face No. 2 men who hit .304 with a .367 OBA and .510 SLG. That's twice as good.

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That has happened even as Lawton, Bay and Daryle Ward have out-batted opposing teams in their spots atop the order. All ache for another batter amongst them who can keep the inning going and give them more shots at scoring or driving in runs.

Picking on Wilson, too good a defensive shortstop not to play, is not the point here. But a strong batter in the 2 hole is long past due.

You'll recall, when the season began, there was talk that the Pirates lacked a No. 3 hitter. That's baloney.

Among the 15 National League batters who have gone to plate at least 100 times as the No. 3 hitter, Bay is sixth in OPS (on-base plus slugging average). Ahead of him are only Derrek Lee, Chipper Jones, Bobby Abreu, Albert Pujols and Carlos Delgado. Going into the game yesterday, Bay also was tied with Abreu and Pujols for most home runs in that spot (11), yet was only sixth in RBI. Why?

Not enough clutch hits? No, Bay has been hitting better with runners on base or in scoring position than he has with nobody on. His problem is looking at empty bases.

Going into Cincinnati, Bay had seen a runner on base in only 41 percent of his at-bats. In only 22 percent had there been a runner in scoring position. The other No. 3 hitters found runners looking back at them from 44 to 62 percent of the time, and runners in scoring position from 25 to 38 percent of the time.

That may not seem like much. But, if Bay had found even 10 more runners in front of him this season, or five more in scoring position, the Pirates probably would have scored a few more runs, maybe enough to win another game or two. Baseball is about tiny advantages.

Yet with McClendon going to a platoon lineup, sending mostly right-handed batters against left-handed pitchers, he continues with bad bets in the No. 2 hole. Left-handed batters Lawton (.177 against lefties this season) and Tike Redman (.120) have been put in that spot the past several games.

Who should bat second?

Freddy Sanchez seems like a good choice against left-handers (.316/.366 OBA/.553 SLG in 38 AB through Sunday), though Sanchez might now be the leadoff man when Lawton sits. Rob Mackowiak would be solid against right-handers (.366/.459/.570 in 93 AB). Jose Castillo would be a good choice against anyone, (.382 against left-handers, .298 against right-handers).

Who cares if they can bunt? They all ought to be capable, but the Hippocratic oath for a top-of-the-order guy is simply, "First, don't make out." It's almost always better to move the runner up with a hit or a walk than an out, and, if the leadoff hitter isn't able to get on, the kind of out you can make is of no interest at all.

Bunch your best hitters. Runs are gratifying.

Who's No. 2?

The No. 2 spot in the Pirates' lineup has been something of a problem this season. Jack Wilson has been the No. 2 hitter most of the season, but has since moved to No. 8. The Stats Geek says Jose Castillo or Rob Mackowiak should be tried there. Here are their statistics and Wilson's.

HRs

RBIs

Avg.

Castillo

2

10

.337

Mackowiak

4

21

.339

Wilson

2

9

.206

First Published: May 31, 2005, 4:00 a.m.

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