Each week, the Post-Gazette compiles bowl projections for Pitt, Penn State and West Virginia from various national outlets. Here’s a look at the picture after the week concluding Saturday, Oct. 26.
Penn State
Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: College Football Playoff No. 6 seed vs. Iowa State (State College, Pa.)
Mark Schlabach, ESPN: CFP No. 5 seed vs. Boise State
Jerry Palm, CBS: CFP No. 8 seed vs. Texas A&M
Brett McMurphy, Action Network: CFP No. 7 seed vs. Notre Dame
Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: CFP No. 8 seed vs. Notre Dame
Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: CFP No. 7 seed vs. Texas A&M
If your wish is to see the Nittany Lions in the expanded playoff bracket, then no, this week’s showdown with No. 4 Ohio State at Beaver Stadium doesn’t matter too much. The path to 11-1 after a possible loss to the Buckeyes is fairly clear, with winnable games remaining against 4-4 Washington, 1-6 Purdue, 5-3 Minnesota and 4-4 Maryland. Take those contests in which Penn State will likely be favored by 10-plus points, and coach James Franklin’s squad is likely a lock to host a playoff game in the eyes of the selection committee. But if your wish is to see Penn State compete meaningfully for a national title, then beating the Buckeyes is imperative. Conference titles determine byes for the top four playoff seeds, and Penn State would face long odds to win the Big Ten should it lose to Ohio State. The Buckeyes would hold the tiebreaker over Penn State for one spot in the championship, and No. 1 Oregon would be a safe bet to secure the other with an unbeaten conference record. That’s before you even ponder the fate of No. 13 Indiana, which is 8-0 entering the final month of the regular season. So this one still matters a lot for people who expect more from the Nittany Lions than merely finishing in the top 12.
Pitt
Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Pop Tarts vs. TCU (Orlando, Fla.)
Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Pop Tarts vs. Iowa State
Jerry Palm, CBS: Holiday vs. Oregon State (San Diego)
Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Pop Tarts vs. TCU
Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Pop Tarts vs. Iowa State
Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: Pop Tarts vs. Iowa State
It might feel like nothing is happening for the Panthers, as their projections have not changed much in several weeks despite their 7-0 start. Not true. Each win consolidates Pitt’s hold on a plum bowl assignment should it fall short of a CFP bid. Considering the Panthers were not in a bowl game at all a year ago — and that they haven’t played in a bowl game in sunny Florida or California since 2001 — that’s a significant development not to be taken for granted. Get to 10 wins, and Pitt will play on a significant national stage in the postseason no matter what. If the playoff remains your wish, though, then you’ll need patience to see the Panthers climb into the at-large mix. There will be opportunities to jump ranked teams with losses like Kansas State, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M. But as we noted last week, coach Pat Narduzzi and Co. are going to need signature wins against ranked SMU and Clemson teams in the coming weeks. Step one is this week against the Mustangs, so the pressure is on to get a win and see high high the Panthers can climb in the eyes of the selection committee, which releases its initial playoff rankings next Tuesday.
West Virginia
Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: First Responder vs. Memphis (Dallas)
Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Armed Forces vs. Army (Fort Worth, Texas)
Jerry Palm, CBS: Liberty vs. Tulane (Memphis, Tenn.)
Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Armed Forces vs. California
Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: Liberty vs. Missouri
The win this week against Arizona was an important step for the Mountaineers in their bid for postseason eligibility, but they need to keep stacking wins. Next week’s game against Cincinnati will be an important pivot point. Beat the 5-3 Bearcats, and the path to seven-plus wins is fairly straightforward, as remaining opponents Baylor and UCF have losing records. Lose, and those games become must-wins, as the season finale against Texas Tech is probably the toughest remaining game on the slate.
First Published: October 28, 2024, 1:48 p.m.
Updated: October 28, 2024, 11:51 p.m.
