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Stats Geek: A Quick Critique of Hurdle

Stats Geek: A Quick Critique of Hurdle

Imagine how much better the Pirates might be if manager Clint Hurdle weren’t so dumb.

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Did you see the way Hurdle brought in the former lights-out closer in to pitch the seventh inning this past Friday night and, two games later, left the guy pitching a no-hitter in for that same seventh inning?

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Sure enough, both Jason Grilli and Francisco Liriano gave up two-run homers. In other words, Hurdle blew both leads. He’s lucky the Pirates miraculously scored a single run in the final three innings of one of those games or they’d have lost them both.

Dumb, dumb, dumb.

You know that means the Pirates are just 62-4 now when starting the seventh inning with a lead (nearly all of them slim leads). That’s a measly 94 percent victory rate. Do you know what the National League average is in the same situation?

Well, OK, it’s only 87 percent. But the Pirates don’t want to be average. They’re in a pennant race. Do you know what the Cardinals’ percentage is when they enter the seventh inning with a lead? Huh?

Well, OK, the Cards are 72-7. That’s 91 percent, and below the Pirates, but how ‘bout those Reds?

OK, they’re even worse, 66-9, which is 88 percent. But what about entering the eighth with a lead?

OK, so the Pirates have a better record there (67-3, 96 percent) than the Cards (77-6, 93 percent) or the Reds (69-9, 88 percent). The Pirates also have a slim edge when entering the ninth inning with a lead (97 percent compared to 96 percent for the other two teams). They Pirates also seem to be way better than their division rivals when the game is tied entering the eighth and ninth innings, and have fewer blown leads in general, more comeback wins and a better record in one-run games. Their record when scoring three runs or less is also significantly better, but I’m not going to give you all those stats because they’re beside my point.

That point is simplicity itself: Just imagine how much better the Pirates would be if Hurdle knew what he was doing.

If only he knew how to manage the bullpen and didn’t leave his starters in too long, Pirates fans wouldn’t have to endure these one-game losing streaks. This is the second one since Friday. Do you know what I’m saying?

OK, then explain it to me.

First Published: March 24, 2016, 5:12 p.m.

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