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Stats Geek: When Jason Bay Was Good

Stats Geek: When Jason Bay Was Good

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Jason Bay remains in that baseball limbo called “designated for assignment,’’ and the Pirates could use a right fielder with pop, and Bay has played 25 games in right this year, and . . .

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No, signing Bay wouldn’t be a good idea. He looks done at 34, and hasn’t been much good since he left Boston after the 2009 season. (What was he thinking? Massachusetts even calls itself “The Bay State.”)

A pennant race is not the time of year to take a flyer on a man four years into the downside of his career. But the other day, I heard a Pittsburgh talk show host and guest commentator dismissing Bay’s years as a Pirate. I’d have written them off as amnesiacs, but then I remembered this is often the fate of the best guy on terrible teams.

So for those with similarly short memories, let me begin with this: After winning the Rookie of the Year with the Pirates in 2004, Bay hit 30 home runs, drove in 100 runs and scored 100 runs in four of the next five seasons. Two and a half of those seasons were with the Pirates, the last year and half with the Red Sox.

Though it was a higher-scoring era, there were only two other players who were able to pull off four 30-100-100 seasons between 2005 and 2009.

They were Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.

Bay wasn’t in their class. He never hit 40 home runs, never led the league in anything but games played, and never finished higher than seventh in the MVP voting (with the Red Sox in 2009). But, make no mistake, Bay was very good.

I think I know why many have forgotten that, though. Bay’s Pirates teams gave up tons of runs. From his rookie year through his departure year of 2008, the Pirates gave up an average of 4.99 runs per game. Bay never played on a team like this year’s Pirates, that gives up 3.39 runs per game. So too many of Bay’s three-run homers were lost in the plastering of 7-5 losses.

On teams like that, a lot of fans wonder why the best player can’t do even more. He struck out too much, many said, and was a sucker for the low-and-away curve ball. OK, but Bay hit .281 with a .375 on-base average in 719 games as a Pirate, while slugging .515. Across the board, that beats what Pedro Alvarez is doing this season, and only Andrew McCutchen can top that OBA. Adjusted for era, Bay’s OPS+ is 16th on the Pirates all-time, falling right between Bobby Bonilla and Dave Parker.

Then there’s that old canard that “he never got any big hits,’’ a lie easily put to rest by the game logs at Fangraphs.com. Click here to see.

Bay was a slightly below-average defender in left field, and he didn’t have the arm to play right, but he was good enough to hit double digits in outfield assists for the Pirates more than once. He was also good enough to replace Manny Ramirez with the Red Sox and still see that team make the playoffs in his one and a half seasons. Bay hit .306/.452/.551 in 62 post-season appearances, too. But then Bay foolishly left a home park perfect for his skill set (Fenway) and followed the money to the Mets and Citi Field, a joint that puts even more of a damper on right-handed power than PNC Park.

Since leaving Boston after the 2009 season, Bay has hit .229/.314/.373 in 356 games. Reviled in New York, he found temporary refuge in his native Pacific Northwest his season, but the Seattle Mariners designated for him assignment a week ago. He’d hit only .204/.298/.303. He did put 11 balls over the fence in 206 AB, about the same AB/HR rate he had as a Pirate, but that couldn’t cover his flaws.

About the only other asset left to Bay’s game is uncommon base-stealing ability in scattered attempts. He’s 29 for his past 32 (albeit in four seasons) and his career mark of 95 steals and just 17 caught-stealings gives Bay a career mark of 84.8 percent, the all-time 10th best. He’s been one smart baserunner.

Throw in 1,200 career hits, 222 home runs and a career OPS of .841, and Bay did a lot better than one would expect for a 22nd-round draft choice from Trail, British Columbia. In just 719 games wearing black and gold – not even five full seasons, though that was spread across six years – Bay hit 139 home runs, good enough for eighth on the Pirates all-time list. His AB/HR rate of 18.6 for the Pittsburgh Baseball Club was bested only by Ralph Kiner (13.0); Bay's immediate predecssor, Brian Giles (15.4); Willie Stargell (16.7) and Dick Stuart (17.2). Alvarez is next at 19.2.

So Bay was good and ought to be remembered that way. It was simply his misfortune to play on Pirates teams that gave up about 800 runs year. Bay’s career may be over, but be very glad that kind of pitching is in the Pirates’ past, too.

First Published: March 24, 2016, 5:13 p.m.

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