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Stats Geek: Pedro's Journey With Ike Davis

Stats Geek: Pedro's Journey With Ike Davis

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These two sluggers were born 26 years ago, six weeks and a couple of thousand miles apart, in cultures that couldn’t be more different save for one common bond: baseball.

Pedro Alvarez and Ike Davis both wound up playing for big-time college baseball programs. Both were drafted in the first round in 2008, and both made their major-league debuts in the spring of 2010.

The careers have taken a turn since. I wrote a column for the mainsheet today that mentioned how Davis is being tortured on New York sports radio these days for his horrendous season, the same kind of ranting that was directed Alvarez’s way as recently as April, before he began hitting like an All-Star.

It made me think about how quickly fortunes can change in this difficult game. These are a couple of left-handed hitting corner infielders who began the season in much the same place, but now Mets fans have entirely lost faith in Davis. I thought it might instructive to track their careers.

Rookie year, 2010

Davis          19 HR 71 RBI    .264 AVG/.351 OBA/.440 SLG

Alvarez      16 HR  64 RBI   .256/.326/.461

Those are two fine starts. Davis debuted in April, a couple of months ahead of Alvarez and so logged a couple of hundred more AB, but their On-base-Plus-Slugging wound up only three points apart. Davis finished seventh in the Rookie of the Year voting that year (with Gaby Sanchez and Neil Walker just ahead of him and Jose Tabata just behind him.) Buster Posey beat out Jason Heyward for that prize. Alvarez garnered no votes.

Sophomore season, 2011, hard times come in different ways

Davis            7 HR, 25 RBI      .302/.383/.543/.925

Alvarez      4 HR, 19 RBI      .191/.272/.289/.661

Davis began the season with an RBI in nine of his first 10 games, but on May 10 he collided with third baseman David Wright on a routine pop-up. (Wright’s mind may have been elsewhere, as he was undoubtedly already thinking about who he’d pick for the 2013 Home Run Derby.) Davis injured his ankle and that was pretty much that; he finished the season with only 129 AB.

This was the year Alvarez struggled mightily, hitting so badly by May 19 -- .208/.283/.384 – that the Pirates sent him down to Indianapolis. There, he raked, but he was even worse when he returned to the big club in July, and a lot of people began wondering if Alvarez’s rookie season was a mirage.

Third season, 2012, the rebounds:

Davis          32 HR, 90 RBI             .227/.308/.462/.771

Alvarez      30 HR, 85 RBI             .244/.317/.467/.784

So they had similar seasons. Neither was hitting for average, and both needed to get on base more often, but each was hitting for power and driving in runs.

Fourth season, 2013, Pedro soars as Ike sinks

Davis          5 HR, 18 RBI              .165/.255/.250/.505

Alvarez     24 HR, 62 RBI              .250/.311/.516/.828

Now it’s Davis's turn to return to AAA. He excelled for 21 games with the Las Vegas 51s, hitting .293 with seven homers and 13 RBI. But, as the slogan would have it, what happened in Vegas stayed in Vegas. He’s doing nothing for the Mets and their fans are clamoring for manager Terry Collins to play Josh Satin at first base. Satin, 28, is hitting a ridiculous .361/.487/.557/1.044 in 76 plate appearances.

I understand that. Many Pirates fans wanted Pedro gone in 2011 when there was only Josh Harrison and Chase d’Arnaud behind him. But what surprises me, given the way the Pirates gave Alvarez breathing space by batting him fifth, sixth and seventh as he struggled, is that Collins put Davis right back in the cleanup spot upon his return – and he promptly fell on his face. He’s has only five hits, all singles, in 26 AB since July 5.

Davis's lost look is not Pirates’ fans concern, but Collins might take a page from Clint Hurdle’s notebook and start batting Davis lower in the lineup.

Regardless, it appears that the Pirates, picking 16 spots ahead of the Mets in the 2008 draft, made the right choice. Both players are arbitration eligible next season, but it should be Alvarez who makes the fortune. That’s despite strikingly similar career numbers:

Davis          63 HR, 204 RBI           .239/.324/.429/.752

Alvarez      74 HR, 230 RBI           .240/.311/.446/.757

Davis has five more plate appearances than Alvarez in his career, but Alvarez may lap him this season. He’s peaked at the right time, is already four-fifths of the way to a second consecutive 30-homer season, and Pirates fans can only hope there’s no regression.

Mets fans aren’t so lucky.

First Published: March 24, 2016, 5:14 p.m.

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