I’m not saying I don’t want the Pirates to win the division. I am saying there are downsides to that quest.
When play ended last night, the Cardinals’ magic number for winning the division outright was 3. More realistic for the Pirates is to tie them. To do that, the Pirates need to win their last four and the Cardinals need to lose one of their next three. If the Cards lose twice, the Bucs would need win only three of four.
That’s a long shot either way, but let’s say it’s the last day of the season and that’s still a possibility. It’s Sunday in Cincinnati and Johnny Cueto is starting and trying for his 20th victory. It would be Gerrit Cole’s turn to pitch for the Pirates, so if the team is keen on winning the division, Cole is starting against Cueto (or, as we like to say this time of year, KWAYYYYYY-toe).
If the Pirates beat Cueto in Cincinnati, huzzah! What do they win?
Maybe the chance to face Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA) in St. Louis to decide the division winner.
Yeah. If both teams have 90 wins, the Cardinals host the one-game divisional playoff because they won the season series with the Pirates. The Pirates won’t have Cole or Francisco Liriano either. Liriano likely will pitch this Saturday in Cincinnati — if the Pirates are still fighting for the division title — so he won’t be able to pitch on Monday.
It will be Jeff Locke’s turn to pitch. They won’t have anyone else, unless they want to go with Edinson Volquez on three days rest. Vance Worley would have only two days rest.
Of course, the Cards might be in a similar position. They’re scheduled to pitch Lance Lynn (15-10, 2.73 ERA) on Saturday in Arizona and Wainwright on Sunday, and likely will if the division is still in doubt. With the Pirates’ game starting three hours before the Cardinals’ game on Sunday, St. Louis could even warm up Wainwright and decide whether to use him based on what the Pirates do. If they need him to pitch Sunday and by some strange twist of fate the feeble Diamondbacks beat Wainwright and force a divisional playoff, that likely would mean John Lackey (3-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 10 Cardinal starts) would face Locke in St. Louis. It would be his turn.
So maybe the Pirates don’t have to beat Wainwright in St. Louis and Locke helps the Pirates win against Lackey or someone else. If that happens, they can sit back and wait to see who wins the Cardinals-Giants wild card game in St. Louis next Wednesday. The Pirates, if I understand this correctly, would be playing the Dodgers in their stadium in the first game of the five-game Division Series. But if the Pirates lose that division-deciding game in St. Louis, what happens?
They host the wild card game. They face the Giants in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. (If the Pirates have caught the Cards, the Giants couldn’t have caught them for the top wild card spot).
So the choice for this do-or-die Wednesday game will be either Volquez on five days rest, Worley on his regular four-day rest, or Liriano on three days rest.
If they hadn’t been fighting for the division all this time, they could choose between Liriano or Cole. But they have been.
There’s an obvious danger to overthinking this stuff. Tying for the divison lead gives the team two chances to win a single game to stay alive, instead of just one chance, as the wild card would. So Pirates fans should just do what the team has done all year and worry about winning each and every game they’re in, not look ahead.
But also remember that old saying, “When the gods want to punish you, they answer your prayers.’’
First Published: March 24, 2016, 5:06 p.m.