5 day forecast
Baseball 2007: Picking apart the Pirates' roster
Share with others:
BRADENTON, Fla. -- In roughly 24 hours, the Pittsburgh Baseball Club begins its 121st season with 25 players eager to snap the streak of 14 losing seasons.
Want more numbers?
Below is a breakdown of the roster -- including injured players Freddy Sanchez and John Grabow -- with 2006 statistics, 2007 projections and a word or two on that player's outlook.
The projections are compiled by The Bill James Handbook.
STARTERS
2006 Numbers
34 GS
10-15 W-L
117 K
4.47 ERA
2007 Projected
32 GS
12-13 W-L
132 K
3.96 ERA
Outlook: No pitcher in the league gave up more than his 255 hits, but he steadied in the second half and recaptured some of that rookie glory. Key will be locating the fastball -- especially inside -- early for strikes.
2006 Numbers
32 GS
14-11 W-L
169 K
4.74 ERA
2007 Projected
31 GS
10-12 W-L
167 K
4.22 ERA
Outlook: The staff's lone power pitcher averaged 92.8 mph on his fastball last season, third-highest in the league, and his 8.18 strikeouts per nine innings ranked sixth in franchise history. A maturing changeup should cut down those 29 home runs.
2006 Numbers
30 GS
8-10 W-L
117 K
4.76 ERA
2007 Projected
28 GS
8-11 W-L
109 K
4.55 ERA
Outlook: Eighty-one walks and 12 hit batsmen gave too many batters a free pass. His aim this spring was to trust his stuff and attack the bat, and he did plenty of that with good results. He might be the rotation's biggest variable.
2006 Numbers
11 GS
2-5 W-L
64 K
3.79 ERA
2007 Projected
27 GS
9-7 W-L
122 K
3.49 ERA Outlook: A subpar spring had many doubting the decision to keep him, but management would not forget that five-start stretch last season when he allowed seven earned runs. His rope, though, is short.
2006 Numbers
30 GS
9-12 W-L
597 K
5.03 ERA
2007 Projected
32 GS8-11 W-L119 K4.63 ERA Outlook: Wild pitcher or wild card? When he is sharp, he stays efficient and pounds the zone, as he did this spring. Health is a question: His 30-start 2006 in Washington was a rarity in a career plagued by shoulder trouble.[ Back to the top ]
RELIEVERS
2006 Numbers
94 GP
72 K
38 BB
3.28 ERA
2007 Projected
89 GP61 K33 BB3.91 ERA Outlook: He had a small taste of closing in September and nailed 12 of 13 saves. Great. But now? Key is a strong start. Although his second-half 1.22 ERA last season was second-lowest in the majors, the 4.63 mark before it was inadequate.
2006 Numbers
85 GP
56 K
12 BB
3.79 ERA
2007 Projected
83 GP60 K9 BB3.67 ERA Outlook: His 85 outings were a franchise rookie record, and his control - seven unintentional walks -- was immaculate. If he continues those trends, he could topple Torres before long.
2006 Numbers
72 GP
66 K30 BB
4.13 ERA2007 Projected
75 GP68 K32 BB4.50 ERA Outlook: No reliever in the league fared better at stranding runners than his 82.5 percent, but a red flag has been raised with spring elbow trouble. If it lingers, be sure the bullpen as a whole is in serious trouble.
2006 Numbers
75 GP
63 K
31 BB
3.70 ERA
2007 Projected
72 GP
65 K
29 BB
3.69 ERA
Outlook: Much as the Pirates appreciated his career-high 75 outings, the gnawing aspect of his 2006 was that 1-7 record that accurately reflected failure in tight situations. Still, when he is on, he is unhittable.
2006 Numbers
26 GP
62 K63 BB
5.82 ERA2007 Projected
26 GP78 K64 BB5.23 ERA Outlook: From starter to reliever to closer? He had 35 saves for the Rockies three years ago, and management likes his heat enough to give him a shot at late-inning duty.
2006 Numbers
7 GP
3 K1 BB
8.10 ERA2007 Projected
N/AN/AN/AN/A Outlook: Is he just a fill-in for Grabow? Probably not. No reliever had a better spring, and his 95-mph fastball and filthy slider do not have a fluky feel. Moreover, Jim Tracy has said he would be happy to keep three lefties. Control can be an issue.
2006 Numbers
11 G
15 K11 BB
4.30 ERA2007 Projected
N/AN/AN/AN/A Outlook: He has a history of spotty command, but he won a job this spring with plenty of swings and misses, many through a hard changeup. Oh, and he had 23 saves for Indianapolis in 2006.
2006 Numbers
9 GP
16 K13 BB
5.10 ERA2007 Projected
N/AN/AN/AN/A Outlook: The biggest surprise of camp, all this 14-year professional did was get people out until someone noticed. Might he be the one keeping Grabow's seat warm?[ Back to the top ]
CATCHERS
2006 Numbers
.310
137 H6 HR55 RBI2007 Projected
.298134 H9 HR56 RBI Outlook: The best path to improving upon his rookie season would be to add some of that pop he showed in the minors, and he began doing that with an outrageous .471 spring. Still, his top duty is handling the staff - Tracy loves that part - and his top priority is improving defensively.
2006 Numbers
.190
19 H
0 HR
5 RBI
2007 Projected
.239
32 H
3 HR
16 RBI
Outlook: He owned the majors' lowest average last season, so nowhere to go but up. First good sign: He batted .375 in spring.
2006 Numbers
.208
31 H6 HR17 RBI2007 Projected
.26645 H6 HR28 RBI Outlook: Catcher? Outfielder? First baseman? Who cares if he lives up to his potential as a power-hitting switch-hitter?[ Back to the top ]
INFIELDERS
2006 Numbers
.285
140 H
32 HR
90 RBI
2007 Projected
.281
144 H
29 HR
89 RBI
Outlook: For all the talk about his explosive second half in Atlanta, check out this number from his full 2006: His .561 slugging percentage ranked 12th in Major League Baseball. The three guys behind him: Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Justin Morneau. Next order of business: Can he hit cleanup?
2006 Numbers
.344
200 H
6 HR
85 RBI
2007 Projected
.319
179 H
6 HR
67 RBI
Outlook: Is it realistic to ask for another batting title? Maybe. Twenty-eight times in National League history, the champion has repeated. But a more realistic expectation is getting a .300-plus hitter, a fiery competitor and, if he stays healthy, a defensive upgrade at second base.
2006 Numbers
.273
148 H
8 HR
35 RBI
2007 Projected
.269
163 H
9 HR
51 RBI
Outlook: It seems no one wants him to bat second other than Tracy, who appreciates that Wilson can do small-ball things to advance Chris Duffy and that he makes good contact. Fair enough, but what about that career .305 on-base percentage? Not top-of-the-order material.
2006 Numbers
.235
94 H
16 HR
51 RBI
2007 Projected
.252
66 H
10 HR
35 RBI
Outlook: Know this first: He did not beat out Jose Castillo for anything. He batted .207 in the second half last season, then fared far worse than Castillo this spring. But the Pirates like his power, love his range and hope he can narrow his strike zone to raise that average.
2006 Numbers
.253
131 H
14 HR
65 RBI
2007 Projected
.268
120 H
12 HR
60 RBI
Outlook: The job he lost this spring could be his again with some fresh effort and focus. But then, it is effort and focus that cost him that job. Or will the Pirates try -- again -- to trade him?
2006 Numbers
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2007 Projected
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Outlook: Mt. Lebanon's own utilityman will be a Jose Hernandez Jr. of sorts. His bat is dubious, but his defensive awareness and flexibility is not. [ Back to the top ]
OUTFIELDERS
2006 Numbers
.286
163 H
35 HR
109 RBI
2007 Projected
.299
173 H
35 HR
109 RBI
Outlook: The Pirates' model of consistency played all year on a wobbly knee that cut his doubles and steals in half, but he still put up a .928 on-base plus slugging percentage - an excellent measure of hitting prowess - that ranked 19th in the majors. He is becoming so consistently good that it is getting dull.
2006 Numbers
.255
80 H
2 HR
18 RBI
2007 Projected
.285
80 H
3 HR
24 RBI
Outlook: The Pirates call him their catalyst, based mostly on a sizzling final 45 games last season in which he batted .315 and stole bases almost at will. But it takes too selective a memory to isolate on that span when he fell so far at the season's outset. And when he batted .190 this spring.
2006 Numbers
.280
131 H
17 HR
63 RBI
2007 Projected
.278
107 H
15 HR
55 RBI
Outlook: Forget those 17 home runs in 2006. All but three came with the Mets, and his power to left-center is a poor match for PNC Park. Still, his decent average and ability to go opposite field make him a fine complementary piece. Good glovework, too.
2006 Numbers
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2007 Projected
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Outlook: Could he push Xavier Nady in right field? Hey, why rule out anything with a guy whose check-swings can damage the ozone? The key: More walks.
2006 Numbers
.233
63 H
7 HR
16 RBI
2007 Projected
.258
48 H
4 HR
14 RBI
Outlook: Safety valve for Duffy? Probably not. But he can establish long-term bench role with sound defense and some pinch-hitting pop.[ Back to the top ]
First Published April 1, 2007 12:00 am
