Stats Geek: Without more power, Pirates are long shots
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The talk all season about the Pirates needing to do the little things it takes to win misses the point that the big things, the 400-foot things, remain missing.
After winning five in a row against playoff contenders, the Pirates lost four in a row against the big boys despite matching or topping the opponent in hits in three of those four losses.
That's because the Pirates' last 13 hits in San Diego were singles. The Padres saw those 13 hits, and raised with two doubles and three home runs. So even though the home team left more guys on base and in scoring position than the Pirates the last two games, the Padres won both by 2-1 scores because of the long ball.
Thus the Pirates wasted another good outing from Zach Duke and a surprisingly good game from Marty McLeary, making his first big-league start at age 32.
Only the Astros, Padres and Dodgers have a lower staff ERA than the Pirates 4.11 since the All-Star break. But the Pirates have scored just four runs per game in that time, with only 44 home runs in 66 games, putting them at the bottom of baseball in both categories.
That has been the downside of the team's midsummer overhaul. Chris Duffy and Xavier Nady improved the defense and their combined .288 average and .345 on-base average has been just fine since August began. But Duffy has slugged .352 and Nady just .421 in that time. (Slugging average is total bases divided by at bats.)
Stealing 21 bases in 22 attempts in those 48 games, Duffy scored 31 runs. If he keeps that up, Duffy doesn't have to change anything.
But a team would like more from a right fielder or first baseman than Nady's three home runs in 178 at-bats. His overall game is an improvement on Jeromy Burnitz and Craig Wilson, but those guys hit home runs every 19.4 and 19.6 times to the plate for the Pirates this season. Removing them from the lineup, combined with a sharp falloff in power from almost everyone but Jason Bay, has brought the homer drought.
Not that it's all bad. Nady, 27 and having his best season, has a combined .338 on-base average and .460 slugging average with the Mets and Pirates. That puts him below the average NL first baseman (.372/.508), but right there with the average right fielder (.344/.451), according to Baseball Prospectus.
His ability to play two positions well also will allow the Pirates to search for either a corner infielder or outfielder to address the power shortage. Money shouldn't be an issue. Great profits were made again this season, and the franchise won't need to pay Jeromy Burnitz $6 million, Joe Randa $4 million or Shawn Chacon $3.6 million in 2007. If that's not enough, the $3 million club option on Damaso Marte could be chucked.
If it appears I'm repeating a theme, I am. Pirates fans live with an organization that has used the inequities of baseball as an excuse for its chronic failures, even as the league has crowned eight different champions in the past eight seasons and may see a ninth if the Dodgers or Phillies make the World Series.
Now the Pirates have some experienced young starting pitchers, a strong bullpen, a couple of All-Stars and that payroll flexibility the franchise always wanted, while playing in baseball's worst division. It would be hard not to improve next season.
A couple of moves won't make them a great team, but a team doesn't have to be very good to compete in the Comedy Central.
You might have heard the Pirates have the best record in the division since the All-Star break, and maybe you also have heard they've managed that while being outscored, 301-264, so you're justifiably dubious. Good teams don't play that way for long. Bad teams do.
Remember where they play, though. For the past four months ending Sunday, only the Astros, at 52-55, have a better record than the Pirates, at 51-58, in the Comedy Central, and this period includes the Pirates' 13-game losing streak. The Cardinals should win the division despite being 49-58 from May 25 through Sunday.
All six teams have losing records because the AL Central toured the division this year in roughly the way Genghis Khan toured central Asia. The Pirates and Astros were the best of a bad lot in that span because they managed winning records against the National League.
The Pirates can compete in this division, and probably only in this division, right now. They have gone 29-24 against division rivals since May 1, as this club is very different from that opening day lineup that included Burnitz, Randa, Sean Casey, Humberto Cota and Oliver Perez.
The team is still only treading water, but if the Pirates win just twice in this final week of the season, they'll have a winning record after the All-Star Game for the first time since 1992. If they land a hitter this winter who can go long, they'll have a decent chance to do that longer.
First Published September 26, 2006 12:00 am
