Stats Geek: A to-do list for a winning '07 for Pirates
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Expressing less than total faith in the abject failure of the Pirates has its peril. I stuck my neck out last week by saying the team would win more than 72 games, and that as many as 85 is not beyond belief.
For that I was called a "blind optimist" by one e-mailer and meticulously fricasseed by Charlie Wilmoth, the kindly proprietor of bucsdugout.com.
Let me be clearer this time. Sure, 75 wins are more likely than 85. Having said, however, that the Pirates could contend in their division (and only their division) if "absolutely everything goes right," let's define that:
Three Who Can Hit go to the plate 1,600 times or more. Last year, Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche had almost 1,900 plate appearances. If they stay reasonably healthy, I'll let you count the singles, doubles and home runs. If any of the three lose significant time to injury, it will be "wait'll 2008."
The young quartet of starting pitchers betters its 4.56 earned run average in 107 starts last year. That ERA beat the 4.66 average for all league starters, and collective improvement seems more likely than regression. But who gets better? Who slips? Will Tom Gorzelanny start more than 11 games? Will the quartet average more than six innings per start? The season rides on the answers.
The gloves cover more ground. One reason for the pitchers' early struggles was the defense. Defensive Efficiency Ratio, a measure of how many balls in play are turned into outs, ranked the Pirates the worst in baseball. That ratio got better in August and September after Xavier Nady and Chris Duffy joined the team, which may be coincidence, but speaking of Duffy...
Duffy plays like it's late summer, and not spring, all season long. In 104 career AB before the All-Star break, Duffy has hit .192 with a .250 on-base average. In 336 career AB after the break, he has hit .307/.362. Fans would settle for his overall .280/.336, which is about league average for leadoff hitters. They won't care about his lack of power if he steals bases at his 90 percent career rate (28 of 31).
The bullpen doesn't miss a beat. Plenty of pitchers have become closers in their mid-30s and excelled, and Salomon Torres, 35, was terrific in his audition in September. Despite his history of slow starts, fans might worry more about how capably other relievers job-share Torres' former setup role. He pitched in 256 games the past three seasons, more than half the Pirates' games and more than any pitcher in baseball. Leads can be blown in the seventh and eighth, too.
Backup catchers can't hit so weakly when they start semi-weekly. Last year, Ryan Doumit, Humberto Cota and Carlos Maldonado hit .161 with two home runs and 10 RBIs in 45 starts. The Pirates were 14-31 (.311) when Ronny Paulino didn't start and 53-64 (.453) when he did.
The Joses and Jack Wilson have to hit like the average middle infielder. Teams score the most runs by putting guys on base and hitting the long ball. Measure that with OPS (on-base average plus slugging average). The Pirates finished last in the NL in OPS in 2006 and, no coincidence, last in runs. Wilson's OPS was 51 points below the average NL shortstop, according to Baseball Prospectus. Jose Castillo's OPS was 76 points behind the average second baseman, and Jose Bautista three points below the average second baseman. (They were 144 points and 71 points below the average third baseman.) Fellows, please, only one guy can bat eighth.
Xavier Nady shows some power, learns to hit right-handed pitching or finds a left-handed partner. Nady has hit a home run every 29.6 AB in his career, not good for a corner outfielder, and PNC Park's deep left-center field dulls the power he has. Nady had three HRs in 55 games as a Pirate. He hits left-handed pitchers well, though, .331/.409/.506 in 263 AB the past three seasons, compared to .243/.291/.418 against right-handers. The trouble is potential platoon partners Doumit, Nate McLouth and Michael Ryan haven't hit right-handers consistently either.
Tony Armas Jr. throws 150 innings with an ERA at 5.00 or below. Better yet, some combination of, say, Armas, Shawn Chacon, Sean Burnett and Shane Youman has 30 or 40 starts like that among them. The Hardball Times says the collection of stiffs that was the Pirates' fifth starter last year posted a 6.30 ERA, and the major-league average for the No. 5 guy was 6.24. Deep staffs are rare. Most teams use 10 to 12 starters as injuries take their toll.
Finally, the little budget that could. The team could start the season roughly $8 million beneath the budgeted $50 million payroll. If the Pirates are in the hunt in July, they should pick up a left-handed bat or a pitcher from a team that needs to dump salaries.
Did I just write that?
My doubts for a winning season deepened halfway through this. None of these things, alone, would be a great shock. Getting all of them would be. But as LaRoche said, the goal should be the playoffs, not .500. Hold to that hope in March or you may never get another chance.
So sleep tonight with visions of Andrew McCutchen's midsummer call-up dancing in your head.
First Published March 20, 2007 12:00 am
