The man who saw the future
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Given the dystopian view of the future favored by politicians in an election year -- The sky will fall if you don't vote for me! -- I thought I'd pass along some predictions that are a bit more optimistic.
They were penned in 1900 by the forward-thinking John Elfreth Watkins Jr. and published by the Ladies' Home Journal. Reading them with hindsight, it's astonishing how many things he got right.
Mr. Watkins was a civil engineer who worked on the railroads and then as a transportation curator at the Smithsonian Institution. At the turn of the century, he interviewed all manner of scientific experts and put together a list of prognostications for the magazine. It ran under the headline, "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years."
The World Future Society's website ( wfs.org ) refers to Mr. Watkins as "the seer of the century... who successfully forecasted advancements in twentieth-century warfare ('aerial warships and forts on wheels').
"He was fairly prescient about transportation (subways, elevated roadways), food preparation and storage (ready-cooked foods, refrigerated preservation), communications (international long-distance telephone), and central air conditioning and heating, among other innovations."
Some of his predictions are utopian in nature, but his vision of modern warfare is all too accurate. Of course, he was a bit wide of the mark some times, but even those are fascinating to read.
And in case you're wondering if this was a prank, I called the magazine to confirm its authenticity. Which they did. Here's a condensed version of the list:
• Nicaragua will ask for admission to the United States "after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people."
• Americans will be up to two inches taller due to better health, reforms in medicine, sanitation, food and athletics. (No mention that they will also be 20-30 pounds heavier on average.)
• Mosquitoes, flies, roaches, rats and mice will have been eradicated.
• Automobiles will be cheaper than horses and used by farmers to haul plows, hay wagons, rakes and produce. Horses will become scarce, except for "high breeds" kept by the rich.
• The only wild animals left will be in menageries.
• Grand opera will be telephoned to private homes and will sound as good as a live performance. "Great musicians gathered in one enclosure in New York will, by manipulating electric keys, produce at the same time music from instruments arranged in theatres or halls."
• Strawberries, raspberries and blackberries will be the size of apples. Melons, cherries, grapes, plums, apples, pears and peaches will be seedless.
• Any flower will be grown in any color with any scent.
• Exercise will be compulsory in school. All cities will have public gymnasiums. "Any adult unable to walk ten miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling."
• No more street cars in large cities -- all "hurry traffic" will move below or high above ground inside the city limits. Moving sidewalk stairways will transport people to high trestles. Cities, therefore, will be noise-free.
• Express trains will run 150 mph, hauled by cigar-shaped electric locomotives.
• Air ships will be maintained as deadly war vessels by all military nations. Some will transport men and goods; others will be used by scientists making observations at great heights above the earth.
• Giant guns will shoot 25 miles or more guided by compass and telescope, hurling explosives that can destroy whole cities. Fleets of air-ships, emitting dense mist to conceal themselves, will surprise the enemy. Huge forts on wheels will "dash across open spaces" as fast as express trains. Submarines will stay underwater for days at a time. Balloons will take telescopic aerial photos and transmit them to commanding officers.
• Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance; images from the other side of the world can be published in the newspapers an hour later." Photographs will reproduce in full color.
• Man will see around the world via cameras connected electrically to screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span. Sound will be transmitted through giant telephone apparatus.
• The letters C, X and Q will be dropped from the alphabet as redundant. Spelling will be based on sound. English will be a language of condensed words expressing condensed ideas, more extensively spoken than any other. Russian will rank second.
• A university education will be free to every man and woman. Ambitious students unable to pay will also get free board, clothing and books. Medical inspectors will regularly visit public schools; poor children will receive free eyeglasses, dentistry and medical attention.
• The very poor will get free transportation and lunches.
• Wireless telephone and telegraph circuits will span the world. We will be able to telephone China as easily as New York.
• Coal will become scarce and expensive; all the country's waterways will be harnessed to produce electricity.
• Hot or cold air from a central plant will be turned on from spigots to regulate the temperature of a house.
• Pneumatic tubes will deliver packages and bundles, first to the homes of the wealthy and then to everyone.
• Stores will sell low-cost, ready-cooked meals made in "electric laboratories" and delivered by pneumatic tubes or cars. Dishes will be returned to the store for washing. Having one's own cook and purchasing one's own food will be an extravagance.
• Few drugs will be swallowed, but rather delivered directly to organs through the flesh via painless electric current. Rays of invisible light will allow doctors to see inside their patients.
Mr. Watkins died in 1903 at the age of 51. Too bad. I'd love to hear his prediction on the GOP primary.
First Published January 29, 2012 12:00 am
