Will the mayor run?
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The most interesting political development last week wasn't the deal President Barack Obama struck with congressional Republicans to extend the Bush tax cuts or the bizarre news conference Mr. Obama held to defend it. It was a speech New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg gave Wednesday morning.
Mr. Bloomberg denied the speech was a precursor to an independent run for president, but, said Ben Smith of the webzine Politico, it offered "the clearest suggestion yet that he's positioning himself for the national stage."
The self-styled "centrist" group "No Labels," which many think is a stalking horse for a presidential run by Mr. Bloomberg (the group denies this), is having its media rollout Monday.
Mr. Bloomberg has expressed contempt for both Republicans and Democrats.
After the Republican landslide in the midterm elections, Mr. Bloomberg told the Wall Street Journal: "If you look at the U.S., look at who we're electing to Congress, the Senate -- they can't read. I'll bet you a bunch of these people don't have passports."
According to Rupert Murdoch, after playing golf with the president, Mr. Bloomberg told him: "I never in my life met such an arrogant man."
Mr. Bloomberg is a billionaire 18 times over. He could spend twice as much as the record $454 million Mr. Obama spent on his presidential campaign and never miss it. This is one reason political consultants have been flocking to Mr. Bloomberg like flies to a pile of horse manure.
His financial resources alone would make Mr. Bloomberg the most potent third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912. In addition, Mr. Bloomberg is in his third term as mayor of America's most populous city, and (obviously) is a successful businessman.
So if he chooses to run, Mr. Bloomberg would have a big impact. But what would that impact be?
This would depend on the state of the economy in 2012, what's happening abroad, the identity of the Republican nominee. But history suggests third-party candidates hurt the party in power most. (Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 and Ross Perot in 1992 caused the defeat of Republican presidents. Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over President Jimmy Carter in 1980 was facilitated by the independent candidacy of Rep. John Anderson, a liberal Republican.)
First Published December 12, 2010 12:00 am
