Democrats: no reason to celebrate
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The spin is in. Here's how the webzine Politico expressed the conventional wisdom about the outcome of the special election for what had been Jack Murtha's seat in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district:
"In the only House race that really mattered to both parties ... Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition," wrote Jonathan Martin and Charles Mahtesian.
If this is widely believed, it may turn out to be a good thing for Republicans that Democrat Mark Critz, a former Murtha aide, defeated Republican Tim Burns in PA 12.
First, there'll be no more smugness among Republicans about coasting to a takeover of the House in November.
Second, Democrats in swing districts may now underestimate how much trouble they could be in.
Mr. Martin and Mr. Mahtesian have a curious notion of what constitutes a "level playing field." Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1 in Pennsylvania's 12th district and Democratic turnout was goosed by competitive primaries for U.S. senator and governor, while the GOP statewide primaries were yawners.
The surge for Rep. Joe Sestak against Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic Senate primary is mainly what did in Mr. Burns, an analyst for the National Republican Congressional Committee told Jim Geraghty of National Review.
"Sestak's surge ... drove a sudden interest in voting among the Democratic base. This analyst thinks these Sestak-driven voters amounted to 8,000-10,000 voters, roughly the size of Critz's margin of victory," Mr. Geraghty said.
Mr. Burns wanted to make the election a referendum on Obamacare and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but Mr. Critz wouldn't play ball. He presented himself as a pro-life, pro-gun moderate who opposed Obamacare and carbon taxes.
This approach should serve Mr. Critz well in the general election. But it will be difficult for Democrats who voted for the stimulus bill, cap and trade and Obamacare to emulate it.
And, noted Sean Trende of RealClear Politics, more than 60 seats held by Democrats are more favorable to Republicans than is Pennsylvania's 12th.
Though he must be considered the favorite, Mr. Critz is by no means a shoe-in in the fall. There were 82,710 votes cast in the simultaneous Democratic primary in the 12th district, but Mr. Critz got just 70,710 in the special election (with 99.83% of precincts reporting). That means 14.5 percent of those who voted in the Democratic primary didn't vote for Mr. Critz in the special election.
First Published May 23, 2010 12:00 am
