February a chance for GOP hopefuls to boost momentum
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After a blockbuster few months, the race for the Republican presidential nomination may be about to hit the snooze button.
The closely watched early states are done, and the competition has whittled down to a hardy four candidates. The next landmark day is a month off -- March 6, otherwise known as Super Tuesday.
But in the meantime, the race is entering a quieter phase, unlikely to carry the twists and turns of early winter.
Seven states will hold their nominating contests this month. The next in line are Colorado and Minnesota, which hold caucuses Tuesday. Missouri also holds a primary, though it is considered more of a "beauty contest" because the state's official nominating process takes place later in the year. And Maine is in the midst of a multi-day caucus that ends Saturday.
It is hardly the thrill-a-minute fight that has been unfolding since September, punctuated by a series of debates that allowed voters to see in real time some of the candidates' sharpest ups and downs. January was an all-out slugfest that ended with a particularly nasty primary in Florida.
But if January was like a gladiator match, February will be more like a game of chess. It will serve as a test of the candidates' grit as they navigate the labyrinthine rules set forth by each state's Republican Party and try to collect enough delegates to support them at the Republican National Convention in August.
The candidates will have to raise enough money to stay in the game and keep up their momentum, as well as their own endurance on the stump.
"If they don't effectively compete, they will allow the perception to be created that the other guy has the momentum, that the wind is out of their sails," said Michael Steele, former chairman of the Republican National Committee. "You want to create the perception of momentum."
The February lull is something of a new phenomenon in presidential politics, said Stephen Wayne, a professor of government at Georgetown University and author of "The Road to the White House." In the past, the momentum typically stalled only after a candidate had secured enough delegates to virtually assure himself the nomination.
The likely nominee then used the lull to mend fences within his party, raise money for the general election and perhaps travel overseas, much as Barack Obama did when he traveled to Berlin during the 2008 nomination race to make a sweeping foreign policy address.
Things changed this year because of new Republican National Committee rules meant to give more voters in more states greater sway over the process, Mr. Wayne said. But the dragged-out fight could hurt the eventual nominee, because "the more divisive and longer the process, the more it saps the strength of the party and weakens the party in a general election contest."
First Published February 6, 2012 12:00 am
