Analysis: Does party switch clear path for Specter?
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Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., walks down the hall of the Dirksen Senate Office Building after an appropriations hearing on Thursday.
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Sen. Arlen Specter's political conversion won him the instant embrace of the Democrats' state and national hierarchy, but will that translate to an unobstructed road to the Democratic nomination?
Perhaps. But some Pennsylvania Democrats, including a handful of potential primary rivals, aren't ready to enlist in the Arlen army just yet.
The sole announced Democratic candidate, Joe Torsella, of Philadelphia, was quick to announce that he would remain in the 2010 race. Rep. Joe Sestak, the Delaware County Democrat, has been figuratively rattling his saber all week on the possibility that he would challenge the veteran incumbent -- and as a retired admiral, he may have a real saber.
In a news conference Friday, Pittsburgh City Controller Michael Lamb said he, too, would continue to consider a bid for the Democratic nomination.
"I don't have the long history in the Senate that Sen. Specter has, I don't have maybe the military experience that Sen. McCain has, but I know I'm funnier than Al Franken. So that's something that I continue to look at," he said.
"It's a year away, right now, the race, so it's [a decision] that I would have to make in the very near term."
In an interview on CNN, Mr. Sestak insisted that Mr. Specter had yet to prove himself to rank-and-file Democrats.
"At the end of the day, this decision is going to be made by us very independent-minded Democrats," he told CNN. Mr. Sestak said he wanted to hear more from the incumbent on issues such as health care reform, which, he pointedly noted, Mr. Specter had opposed during the Clinton administration.
"If he's got the right answers, he may be the man. If he doesn't, I've not made my final decisions.''
His colleague, Rep. Jason Altmire, D-McCandless, praised Mr. Sestak's political credentials, but he reflected the apparent consensus of analysts and party leaders that the way has been effectively cleared for the incumbent.
"I can't imagine that anyone of substance would jump in given that President Obama said he supports Specter,'' Mr. Altmire said. "Joe kept his powder dry; he's sitting there with $3.5 million [in campaign contributions]. I think he was going to run but now the situation has changed. It makes sense for him to consider his options, but I think in the end, it will be Sen. Specter.''
G. Terry Madonna, the Franklin & Marshall College political scientist and pollster, said he believes some liberal and union figures would like to see a Sestak candidacy, in part to keep pressure on Mr. Specter to vote their way after he disappointed them by announcing his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act. The measure, which would make it easier to organize, is high on labor's legislative priority list.
But, he said of the prospects for a serious intra-party challenge, "It's almost unimaginable. Specter has this wired."
Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based Democratic consultant, noted that despite Mr. Torsella's public statements, his political roots argue against a continued candidacy.
"The fact of the matter is Joe is a really fine guy but look at who his backers are. He's in the Rendell circle. It's inconceivable that he would run."
Still, he said, even the united front of Mr. Obama, Gov. Ed Rendell and Sen. Bob Casey would not absolutely preclude a contested primary.
"We're Democrats. We're not like the Republican state committee."
He pointed out that Mr. Casey had the unanimous support of party leaders in 2006 but still faced at least nominal primary opposition.
"It's just impossible for Democrats, for Rendell, to invoke that kind of discipline,'' he said, "and that even includes Barack Obama.''
Mr. Lamb would seem a distinct long shot if he chose to enter the race, but if Mr. Torsella and Mr. Sestak were to run, he would conceivably have an opening as the only western candidate against three contenders from Philadelphia and its suburbs.
Surveys have shown that Mr. Specter is relatively popular among Democratic voters, but his strength has a regional tilt. While he has won statewide in five previous Senate elections, his numbers are significantly better in his Southeastern Pennsylvania base than elsewhere in the state.
In a survey conducted by Quinnipiac University in late March, before Mr. Specter announced his party switch, his overall favorable rating was 45 percent statewide. But he stood at 62 percent in Philadelphia, where he was once a popular district attorney, and was at 59 percent in the suburban ring around the state's largest city.
More relevant to his Democratic primary prospects was the fact that, even when he still had an "R" after his name, 60 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of the senator. That compared to only 29 percent of Republicans -- the dismal showing that prompted him to abandon the GOP.
And while a majority of Republican voters said Mr. Specter did not deserve to be re-elected, 51 percent of the Democrats said that he did merit a sixth term. The same survey suggested the likely heft of Mr. Obama's pledge to campaign for the new Republican.
The president's job approval rating among Pennsylvania Democrats was a whopping 90 percent, and 87 percent of Democrats approved of Mr. Specter's decision to vote for the president's stimulus package. The problem that legislation was designed to address suggests what is perhaps the greatest uncertainty about Mr. Specter's chances of prevailing with his new primary constituency.
For the time being, at least, Mr. Obama remains popular among voters in general and Democrats in particular. But if the economy continues to limp along, that might not last, and by extension, the value of his support has the potential to be eroded by a persistent downturn.
"It would appear on its surface that it would be a slam dunk now," Allegheny County Democratic Chairman Jim Burn said of Mr. Specter's chances in the 2010 primary.
"But Sen. Specter has yet to engage the Democratic voters, and there's also the labor movement to consider. Even though it seems like a historic coup for the party now, we'll have to see what happens when he engages the voters."
First Published May 3, 2009 12:00 am
