Santorum's momentum builds in Michigan
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Rick Santorum has pulled even with Mitt Romney in two national polls while vaulting ahead of him in his home state, Michigan, the site of one of the next two primary contests in the tumultuous Republican presidential race.
If Mr. Santorum were able to sustain his advantage in Michigan in its Feb. 28 primary, it would be a devastating blow to Mr. Romney on the eve of the March 6 Super Tuesday contests. So far, national polling figures have had less significance than the various state-by-state surveys, but Mr. Santorum's national movement suggests that the former senator from Pennsylvania already is positioned to take advantage of a possible strong showing in Michigan, the state where Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, was born and where his father, the late George Romney, was a popular governor.
The good news for Mr. Santorum comes with the caution that he has yet to face the full force of the Romney camp's advertising resources. After Newt Gingrich's big win in South Carolina, the former House speaker from Georgia led in some Florida polls, only to lose in a landslide after two middling debate performances and an overwhelming assault on the airwaves by the Romney campaign and an allied super-PAC,
Following his three state victories last week, Mr. Santorum has vaulted into a virtual tie with Mr. Romney, the onetime front-runner, in two closely followed national surveys. Monday's latest figures for the Gallup organization's tracking poll showed Mr. Romney at 32 percent, Mr. Santorum, 30 percent; Mr. Gingrich, 16 percent; and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, 8 percent. A Pew Research Center survey found Mr. Santorum doubling his support in the past month, to 30 percent, with Mr. Romney at 28 percent. In both cases, the distance between the pair was within the polls' margins for error, but the momentum was unmistakably with Mr. Santorum.
The Pew survey found that Mr. Romney's position with GOP voters had eroded amid doubts about whether he is a strong conservative and how consistent he is in his positions on issues. Mr. Santorum ran particularly well among Republicans who said they supported the tea party and among white evangelical Protestants. Mr. Romney prevailed among GOP voters who described themselves as members of main-line Protestant denominations. Whatever their reservations, however, most GOP voters of all descriptions said they would unite behind Mr. Romney if he were the nominee.
First Published February 14, 2012 12:00 am
