Revving up for the primary: Sunshine State's Republican establishment put to the test
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Supporters wait for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney to campaign Saturday at the Fish House in Pensacola, Fla. -
A Gingrich event Saturday in Port St. Lucie, Fla.
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TAMPA, Fla. -- Florida defied the Republican establishment in pushing its way to the front of the presidential primary calendar.
It's a state whose GOP establishment has been shaken up in recent elections. Now it's providing a test of whether the party's establishment candidate can rebound from a stinging loss in South Carolina to recapture the momentum in this consistently unpredictable nomination battle.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich roared out of South Carolina with a landslide upset that dramatically changed perceptions of a race in which former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney hadn't necessarily had the love of his party's conservatives but did have a consistent argument that he would be the most "electable" of the party's contenders. But exit polls in South Carolina found that in his sweep of most demographic and ideological groups, Mr. Gingrich also won voters who considered defeating President Barack Obama the most important issue in the race.
Mr. Gingrich's showing was rooted in two strong debate performances, in Myrtle Beach and in Charleston, where he memorably clashed with moderator John King on the "open marriage" allegations of his second wife. And, among many voters, it was reinforced by an embrace of Mr. Gingrich's quite different definition of "electability."
Mr. Romney has pointed to his relative strength among independent voters and his ability to win a race for governor in a Democratic state as evidence of his ability to prevail in a general election. Mr. Gingrich sustained his candidacy through times when many thought it doomed with a series of strong debate performances. A constant element of his stump speech is a vow to challenge Mr. Obama to a series of "seven Lincoln-Douglas style debates."
At a rally here Monday, on the eve of the first of two Florida debates, one after another of the Gingrich supporters interviewed bought into their candidate's different measure of electability -- that the candidate best able to defeat the president on the debate stage is the most likely to beat him in the election.
Jim Dole of Plant City said he was still undecided but leaning "about 90-10 for Newt."
He said he supported Mr. Romney in the state's 2008 GOP primary but was leaning toward the Georgian because "I just feel he's the one to debate Obama and show him up."
But if the first 17 debates helped keep Mr. Gingrich's candidacy afloat, the 18th and 19th, in Tampa Monday and in Jacksonville Thursday, may have had a hand in reversing his momentum. Polls here showed him with an advantage over Mr. Romney immediately after the Jan. 21 primary in the Palmetto State. But after two debates in which an aggressive Mr. Romney had what were widely hailed as the stronger performances, Mr. Gingrich is suddenly once again slipping behind Mr. Romney in the consensus of polling here.
A.J. Matthews, Republican state committeeman for Hillsborough County, describes himself as neutral in the race, but he predicts that the newer poll numbers showing strength for Mr. Romney could shift again.
"We still have a few long days leading up to Tuesday," he said. "I still think it's anybody's race."
Mr. Gingrich did get a boost Saturday night, receiving an endorsement from former presidential candidate Herman Cain.
Hillsborough is one of the populous counties surrounding Tampa Bay, at one end of the Interstate 4 corridor that includes roughly half the Republican votes in the state. But Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research sees a solid win for the ex-governor.
"The establishment is for Romney, and that matters down here because we are such a big state," he said. "To have that organization makes a huge difference. The debates helped; the money helps, and Romney was able to find an issue [against Mr. Gingrich] with Freddie Mac, and once he released his tax returns, there wasn't anything new to talk about."
Debate performances, of course, didn't explain all of the recent shift toward the former Massachusetts governor. Mr. Romney has been vastly outspending all of his rivals in the state's multiple, expensive media markets.
"I am not anti-Romney, but I do think there is a reaction against some of the Romney ads," said Mr. Matthews, the Hillsborough GOP official.
Mr. Gingrich has regularly denounced the tidal wave of advertising, but Florida is a state used to big political spending. Gov. Rick Scott spent $73 million of his own money in winning the 2010 governor's race. That was the same election in which Sen. Marco Rubio, now the object of constant vice presidential speculation, defeated former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, and Democrat Kendrick Meek.
Those two figures are neutral in the presidential race, although Mr. Rubio injected himself into the race by criticizing a Gingrich ad on immigration, a point that Mr. Romney underscored in his feisty debate performance Thursday. The man Mr. Scott defeated in the 2010 GOP primary, former congressman and state Attorney General Bill McCollum, is Mr. Gingrich's chairman in the state. Speaking early in the week, he acknowledged that Mr. Romney would outspend his candidate, but he contended that that financial advantage would hit a point of diminishing returns.
"The campaign dollars are not as important in this race because of the debate and the national TV," he said. And he observed that polls might tend to understate the intensity of his candidate's supporters.
"The tea party is going to turn out," he said.
Four years ago, Arizona Sen. John McCain sealed his nomination by defeating Mr. Romney here, with 36 percent of the vote to the ex-governor's 31 percent. The two candidates ran close together in the votes of non-Hispanic Republicans, but Mr. McCain's overall margin rested on overwhelming support from Hispanic voters. This time around, according to a survey by Univision, Mr. Romney was running well ahead among Hispanic voters, with the support of 49 percent compared to Mr. Gingrich's 23 percent.
"The last time around, McCain beat Romney about 3 to 1 in Miami-Dade, but this time around Romney is going to defeat Gingrich 2 to 1 in the same region," Mr. Coker said. "McCain had [former Sen.] Mel Martinez, [and other Cuban leaders]. This time they're all on team Romney -- and if there is anywhere where there is machine politics in Florida, it's in the Cuban community, so it's no surprise Romney is running especially well there."
If Mr. Romney does manage to hold onto his apparent lead here, the next few weeks of the nominating schedule provide what would seem to be favorable territory for him. The next major test is the Nevada GOP caucuses Saturday. Nevada has a significant Mormon population, and four years ago Mr. Romney won the state easily even as his campaign struggled elsewhere.
The next big states to vote, the last before Super Tuesday's crowded calendar, are Arizona and Michigan, where Mr. Romney's father was a popular governor. Like Nevada, it was one of the few states in which Mr. Romney defeated Mr. McCain in 2008.
The caucus state voting in the relatively quiet month coming up also offers opportunities to the intense supporters of the two trailing candidates in Florida. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum got the good news that he had actually finished first in Iowa two days before the South Carolina vote. But his belated triumph had to compete for news attention with Texas Gov. Rick Perry's endorsement of Mr. Gingrich and the former House speaker's headline-grabbing duel with the CNN anchor in a debate that night.
More good news for Mr. Santorum had more competition for attention last week. He had what most analysts viewed as positive debate performances, but they were overshadowed by the front-runners' clashes.
Mr. Santorum is not advertising in the expensive Florida media markets, but he maintains that his campaign is not in debt so that he will be able to hang around at least through the caucus and primary states to come. He canceled this morning's events to spend time with his hospitalized 3-year-old daughter in Philadelphia.
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas shows no signs of going away either. With proven fundraising ability and a dedicated -- if limited -- base of supporters, he could continue to pick off delegates in the weeks to come.
Florida's decision to schedule its primary early will have a cost. It's losing half the delegates it would have seated in the national convention it hosts this summer.
First Published January 29, 2012 12:00 am
