Presidential race tightens, focuses on swing states
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WASHINGTON -- Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is holding onto his lead in national and state polls as he and Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain focus on a handful of states that will be crucial in deciding the Nov. 4 presidential election.
The race has tightened with a little more than two weeks to go before Election Day. Mr. Obama was ahead of Mr. McCain by 5 percentage points in the average of seven of the most recent polls compiled by the Web site Realclearpolitics.com. That's a 2-point decline from a week ago, when Mr. Obama led by an average of 7 percentage points.
In two polls released yesterday, from CNN-Opinion Research and Hotline-Diageo, Mr. Obama had a 5 percentage point lead. Mr. Obama got 51 percent support to Mr. McCain's 46 percent in the CNN survey; the Hotline-Diageo poll put Mr. Obama's support at 47 percent to Mr. McCain's 42 percent. A Gallup daily tracking showed Mr. Obama leading 52-43 among registered voters who say they plan to cast ballots on Election Day. All three were conducted Oct. 17-19, after the last presidential debate.
Mr. Obama, bolstered by record fundraising and an endorsement yesterday by retired Gen. Colin Powell, is challenging Mr. McCain in what had been Republican territory, including Virginia and North Carolina.
Mr. McCain is focusing on the traditional swing states of Florida, Ohio and Missouri, where he was campaigning yesterday.
"We think the race will tighten," Mr. Obama said this morning in an interview on NBC's "Today" show. "In each of these battleground states, you've got a lot of close races. One of the messages that I've had to my team is that we don't let up."
Mr. Obama has at least a narrow lead in polls conducted in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. All were won by Republican George W. Bush in the last two elections.
Mr. McCain, meanwhile, was ahead in the Republican strongholds of Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and Wyoming.
Two surveys in Florida came up with opposite results as to who is in front. Polls in Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina show the race in a dead heat.
Florida began early voting yesterday, and Mr. Obama was spending the day there -- his sixth trip since clinching the Democratic nomination. He campaigned last night in Orlando with New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, his chief rival during the Democratic primaries.
Mr. McCain campaigned in Missouri yesterday before heading to Pennsylvania for the night. The Republican is still competing for Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, even as polls here show Mr. Obama widening his lead. The Realclearpolitics.com average puts Mr. Obama's advantage at 13 percentage points in Pennsylvania, up from 8 points at the start of the month.
Mr. Obama may get a boost from Gen. Powell's endorsement among swing voters who have expressed concern about the first-term senator's ability to deal with foreign and national security affairs.
Gen. Powell served in three GOP administrations, most recently as secretary of state during President Bush's first term. He called Mr. Obama a "transformational figure" yesterday on NBC's "Meet the Press" program.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., said the Powell endorsement was significant. "What that just did in one sound bite -- and I assume that sound bite will end up in an ad -- is it eliminated the experience argument," he said Sunday on ABC's "This Week" program. Mr. Obama said on NBC yesterday that if he wins the presidency, he would lean on Gen. Powell as an adviser.
The Democratic candidate's campaign also reported raising $150 million in September -- the most ever brought in by a presidential candidate in one month -- and is on pace to spend as much as a half-billion dollars. That would be almost double the amount available to Mr. McCain.
The campaigns are focusing on the state-by-state battle and collecting enough support to win majorities in enough states to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to gain the White House.
In Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, three polls taken in the past week show Mr. Obama with an average lead of about 6 percentage points. The state has gone Republican in the last 10 elections.
A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 in North Carolina found Mr. Obama leading Mr. McCain 46 percent to 44 percent, within the survey's margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The state, with 15 electoral votes, has gone Democratic three times in the last 12 presidential elections.
The two are essentially tied in recent polls in Missouri, which has gone with the winning candidate in 25 of the last 26 presidential elections. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 17-19 and released yesterday shows Mr. McCain with 45 percent and Mr. Obama with 44 percent statewide, with a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The state has 11 electoral votes.
Another major battleground is Ohio. The two most recent polls, by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for NBC and Rasmussen, show the race is a dead heat. A poll there by Boston-based Suffolk gave Mr. Obama a 9-point lead, 51 percent to 42 percent. No Republican candidate has won the presidency without also winning Ohio, which will award 20 Electoral College votes.
First Published October 21, 2008 8:38 am
