5 day forecast
Timeline: Earlier recessions and depressions
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Men wait outside an unemployment relief registration center in New York City during the Great Depression.
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Jan. 1893 - June 1894
• President: Grover Cleveland
• Unemployment: 11.7%-18.4%
• Context: Failure of the Philadelphia and Reading Railroad and withdrawal of European investment led to a stock market and banking collapse. Also precipitated by a run on gold, poor cotton sales and the Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890.
Dec. 1895 - June 1897
• President: Grover Cleveland
• Unemployment: 13.7%-14.5%
• Context: Production shrank, deflation reigned.
June 1899 - Dec. 1900
• President: William McKinley
• Unemployment: 5%-6.5%
• Context: Mild recession during a period of growth.
Sept. 1902 - Aug. 1904
• President: Theodore Roosevelt
• Unemployment: 3.7%-5.4%
• Context: Occurred a year after a stock market crash. Industrial and commercial production declined.
May 1907 - June 1908
• President: Theodore Roosevelt
• Unemployment: 2.8%-8%
• Context: Run on the Knickerbocker Trust Co., severe monetary contraction. San Francisco earthquake of 1906 started problems with gold. Fallout led to the creation of the Federal Reserve.
June 1910 - Jan. 1912
• President: William Howard Taft
• Unemployment: 4.6%-6.7%
• Context: Gross National Product grew by less than 1 percent, commercial and industrial activity declined. Deflation.
Jan. 1913 - Dec. 1914
• Presidents: William Howard Taft and Woodrow Wilson
• Unemployment: 4.3%-7.9%
• Context: Production and real income declined. Federal Reserve Act signed.
Aug. 1918 - March 1919
• President: Woodrow Wilson
• Unemployment: 1.4%
• Context: Hyperinflation in Europe, end of World War I production
Jan. 1920 - July 1921
• Presidents: Woodrow Wilson and Warren G. Harding
• Unemployment: 5.2%-11.7%
• Context: Shift to peacetime economy. Wholesale prices declined, and 1920 was the single most deflationary year in American history.
May 1923 - June 1924
• Presidents: Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge
• Unemployment: 2.4%-5%
• Context: Economy expanded, but industrial production declined.
Oct. 1926 - Nov. 1927
• President: Calvin Coolidge
• Unemployment: 1.8%-3.3%
• Context: Henry Ford closed factories for 6 months, switching production from Model T to Model A. Minor recession during a boom period.
Aug. 1929 - March 1933
• President: Herbert Hoover
• Unemployment: 3.2%-24.9%
• Context: Stock market crash, banking collapse, new tariffs.
May 1937 - June 1938
• President: Franklin Delano Roosevelt
• Unemployment: 14.3%-19%
• Context: Tight fiscal policy in an attempt to balance the budget after New Deal expansion; tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve; declining profits and reduction in investment.
Feb. - Oct. 1945
• Presidents: Franklin Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman
• Unemployment: 1.9%
• Context: Decline in government spending , drop in Gross Domestic Product after World War II.
Nov. 1948 - Oct. 1949
• President: Harry S. Truman
• Unemployment: 3.8%-5.9%
• Context: Began shortly after Mr. Truman's "Fair Deal" economic reforms and a period of monetary tightening.
July 1953 - May 1954
• President: Dwight D. Eisenhower
• Unemployment: 2.9%-5.5%
• Context: After post-Korean War inflation, more money was transferred to national security. The Federal Reserve asserted its independence from the U.S. Treasury and tightened monetary policy from fear of further inflation.
Aug. 1957 - April 1958
• President: Dwight D. Eisenhower
• Unemployment: 4.3%-6.8%
• Context: Tight monetary policy in 1955-56, eased at the end of 1957.
April 1960 - Feb. 1961
• Presidents: Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy
• Unemployment: 5.5%-6.7%
• Context: Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Budget deficit in 1959 switched to surplus in 1960. After this recession, second-longest period of economic growth.
Dec. 1969 - Nov. 1970
• President: Richard Nixon
• Unemployment: 3.5%-4.9%
• Context: Attempt to start closing budget deficits from the Vietnam War and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates (fiscal and monetary tightening).
Nov. 1973 - March 1975
• Presidents: Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford
• Unemployment: 4.9%-8.5%
• Context: OPEC oil price hike, high government spending after the Vietnam War. 1973-74 stock market crash.
Jan.-July 1980
• President: Jimmy Carter
• Unemployment: 7.1%
• Context: Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation of the '70's. Was called a double-dip recession.
July 1981 - Nov. 1982
• President: Ronald Reagan
• Unemployment: 7.6%-9.7%
• Context: Iranian Revolution raised oil prices in 1979, causing an energy crisis. Tight monetary policy to control inflation led to recession.
July 1990 - March 1991
• President: George H.W. Bush
• Unemployment: 5.6%-6.8%
• Context: Inflation increased, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in response. Weakened economy, growing consumer pessimism.
March - Nov. 2001
• President: George W. Bush
• Unemployment: 4.7%
• Context: Dot-com bubble burst, fall in business investments and outlays, Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Dec. 2007 - June 2009
• Presidents: George W. Bush and Barack Obama
• Unemployment: 4.6%-9.3%
• Context: Subprime mortgage crisis led to housing bubble collapse, which led to financial institution/bank failures, which led to unprecedented bank bailout.
First Published November 20, 2011 12:00 am
