City population drop skews crime stats
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When the FBI reported last week that Pittsburgh, like the nation, saw crime drop for the fourth year in a row, Mayor Luke Ravenstahl was quick to proclaim that the city is experiencing "50-year historic crime lows."
He reiterated the statement before an anti-violence gathering at the City-County Building, saying the city continues to be among the nation's safest.
But, as is often the case with crime statistics, the figures can be deceiving.
The mayor drew his conclusion based on the totals for all serious crimes in 2010, provided by the FBI in its annual Uniform Crime Report. The report shows that Part I offenses -- homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, theft, car theft and arson -- are down almost across the board.
Deputy Police Chief Paul Donaldson, too, welcomed the news, saying Pittsburgh saw the lowest crime totals in 40 years.
The problem with crunching numbers and making sweeping statements about historic crime trends for Pittsburgh, more so than for many other metro areas, is that the city is about half the size it used to be.
So any drop in crime compared with decades ago has to be examined in light of a dramatic population decline.
Adjusting for that drop, then, the rate per 100,000 is generally worse now than it was 40 or 50 years ago, at least for crimes of violence that most people associate with safety, such as murder, robbery and assault.
In 1960, for example, the city had about 604,000 people but recorded only 28 murders. That works out to a murder rate of 4.6 per 100,000 people. By 1970, when the population had fallen to about 520,000, there were 63 murders, for a rate of about 12.1 per 100,000.
But last year, with the city's population at about 312,000, there were 55 murders. The rate, then, was 17.6 per 100,000, substantially higher than in 1970.
Typically the city records between 50 and 60 homicides a year, but the number has not fallen with the population loss.
First Published September 30, 2011 12:00 am
