Turbulent economy testing retailers' foresight
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Ben Huber, one of the co-owners of a new pet food store, Petagogy, on Ellsworth Avenue in Shadyside.
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If any year has put retailers' prediction skills to the test, it would be this one.
Merchandise orders must be placed anywhere from weeks to months to a year before the goods appear on shelves for a shot at being someone's Christmas present.
NPD Group's chief industry analyst Marshal Cohen last week described the environment this year so far: "From the higher gas prices to the jobless rate to the NFL lockout to the debt ceiling debate and then the S&P downgrade, the consumer has endured a lot. And now we add in the stock market roller coaster ride, and we have a consumer who has forged ahead despite all of that for the first six months of 2011.
"But, how much more can they endure?"
Cole Wolfson doesn't know the answer, and he doesn't have a lot of historic sales data to rely on when he figures out how many holiday toys and treats to invest in at trade shows. He and three co-owners opened a new pet food store, Petagogy, only a few months ago on Ellsworth Avenue in Shadyside.
They're hoping that a natural foods focus in the pet category will be a draw no matter the economic climate, but the continuing financial storms may influence how deeply they'll dabble in the kind of seasonal goods that can stuff a dog's stocking or make for a cute cat treat.
Janie Long, buyer for Pool City's regional chain, doesn't have that luxury. She was placing orders as far back as December and January for this holiday season.
There were signs even then that it wasn't going to be a rip-roaring year. The raw cost of materials were rising, and it was apparent that consumers were going to be coping with rising prices for groceries, clothes and other basics.
"You have to take your best shot," Ms. Long said. "You go with your information. And you've got to have a little bit of gut."
The Pool City chain took a reserved approach even as it went for new goodies to tempt customers into the stores, which sell hot tubs and billiard tables year-round but go heavily holiday seasonal with displays of artificial trees and Christmas lights.
First Published August 16, 2011 12:00 am
