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Sunday, March 23, 2003

By Dejan Kovacevic, Post-Gazette Sports Writer

If the Penguins were to put together a ridiculous run in their final half-dozen games -- say, one or two victories in a row -- and diminish their chances at landing the first overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft, there is an excellent chance it will not matter.

They might land their man even if they pick as low as third.

That is because there is no clear consensus on who is the best of a draft group that scouts universally believe is rich in talent.

"The top end is deep," Penguins head scout Greg Malone said. "Really deep."

Some go so far as to suggest the best player might end up being someone who is taken as low as 17th overall, a contention Malone does not dispute. But Malone stressed that should not be taken as a sign of mediocrity.

"These are real players," he said. "This draft is unique in that regard, having so much talent so high."

The consensus among scouts is that the field of candidates for the top pick is down to three:

Eric Staal, a 6-foot-3, 189- pound center for Peterborough of the Ontario Hockey League.

Nikolai Zherdev, a 6-2, 185-pound left winger for CSKA Moscow of Russia's Superleague.

Marc-Andre Fleury, a 6-foot, 166-pound goaltender for Cape Breton of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.

The player getting a slight edge in recent weeks is Staal, who had 98 points in 66 games to rank seventh in the OHL. Some refer to him as a young Ron Francis because of his defensive diligence, soft touch with the puck and leadership traits. The difference is that Staal can skate.

Zherdev is universally accepted as the best offensive prospect in the draft. He has game-breaking speed to go with devastating hands, and he has impressed by producing 11 goals in 35 games in his first year among the professionals in the low-scoring Russian league.

Fleury is projected as that most valuable of commodities, a franchise goaltender. He went only 17-24-5 for last-place Cape Breton, but his save percentage -- the position's most revealing statistic -- was .909, third in the QMJHL.

It could be that Staal's stock is rising because he is the stereotypical safe pick.

For one, he is a Canadian forward who already knows the North American way, on and off the ice, thus diminishing doubts which might accompany Zherdev.

For another, just being a forward makes him a safer pick than Fleury in the eyes of many. Most general managers are reluctant to take a goaltender with a top pick. In 2000, the Islanders bucked conventional wisdom -- some found harsher words for it -- by taking goaltender Rick DiPietro with the first pick, allowing Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik to go next.

Malone always is loath to discuss individual players, perhaps now more than ever with the Penguins in the running for a high pick and not wanting to show their cards.

But he acknowledged that the team has debated the merits of making a safe pick.

"That issue probably comes into play. The reason a player is a safe pick is because he doesn't have any flaws. But if you look at another player who maybe doesn't have the defensive game, and you feel he might turn out to be a better player than the safe pick, maybe you decide you can fill in the missing parts yourself as the player matures."

Malone also made clear that the Penguins are looking beyond Staal, Zherdev and Fleury for their pick.

"Let's put it this way: My list is expanded beyond the three most people have on their lists. Some teams, I think, are just looking at those guys as the top three. We're not. We're out there looking hard at many more players, watching how they do in playoffs, seeing how they respond in tough situations. Does that mean they'll rise to the top? Probably not. But we want to see."

As for who is the best among Staal, Zherdev and Fleury?

"To be honest, I don't think any of them has moved ahead and showed, 'OK, I'm the best of the lot.' It could still happen, though."