Home >  Sports >  Notebooks

Sunday, February 23, 2003

By Dejan Kovacevic, Post-Gazette Sports Writer

It does not take Nostradamus to suggest the Avalanche has an excellent chance to win the Stanley Cup. Most often, the team that is the hottest entering the playoffs has as much chance to win it as the one that is the best. And there is ample cause to believe Colorado might be both.

The one certainty -- or close to it -- is that the winner will emerge from the Western Conference.

As Peter Forsberg put it upon his visit to town Thursday, "Look at the numbers. The West has six of the past seven. That's dominance."

It is dominance unmatched in professional sports in that span.

In the NFL, the AFC has won four of seven Super Bowls, no side winning more than two in a row. In Major League Baseball, the American League has won five of the past seven World Series, but that has more to do with the megarich New York Yankees taking four of those than an imbalance of leagues. In the NBA, the Western Conference has won four of seven, and there, too, it is because of one team, the Los Angeles Lakers, has the past three.

In the NHL, since 1996, it has been the Avalanche, Red Wings two in a row, Stars, Devils, Avalanche again and Detroit last season. There have been repeats, but no dynasties. More impressive, the West's record against the East in the final during that time is 26-10.

There are varying theories.

One is that the quality of the Western elite in recent years has forced all teams to improve to keep up. The Avalanche, Red Wings, Blues and Stars have been strong throughout. Until this season, the Sharks were in that category, too, but their place has been taken by the surging Canucks and Wild.

That is Forsberg's take.

"It's the competition," he said. "It's a very tough conference to play in all season long and even more in the playoffs. But that makes all of us stronger. We all know that we have to be a great team just to get to the final."

Another thought is that the more aggressive style in the West is better suited to playoff hockey.

"I've been in both conferences now, and the forecheck, I think, is the big thing," said Shawn Heins, acquired by the Penguins two weeks ago from the Sharks. "When you play Ottawa, you know, as a defenseman, you've got time to make the play because they've got one guy forechecking. The Western teams come at you with two and have a third reading off them. The defense is more active, too. That's what you need in the playoffs. In big games, you can't sit back and wait for the other team's mistakes."

The most obvious explanation is that the West simply has better teams, even if it doesn't have the majority of the big budgets. Seven of the NHL's 11 best records today are in the West, even though only four of the top 10 payrolls are.

Rob Blake of Colorado views Western rosters as being more complete.

"Look at Dallas," he said. "They have everything you could possibly have. They score goals, they prevent them, they've got great goaltending from Marty Turco, and they're great on special teams. And look at their approach. They come right at you. That's winning hockey. That's the way Western teams play. They don't wait. They come up with great players and dictate the game."

That would imply, of course, that Eastern teams do not fare as well in either category, and many who would support that contention.

The East's top three teams this season -- Senators, Devils, Flyers -- are coached by defense-first disciples in Jacques Martin, Pat Burns and Ken Hitchcock. Of the three, only Ottawa is adept at scoring, but that is canceled out by its perennial postseason flops.

Another Western blowout?

"I'm not saying anything bad about the East because I think New Jersey and Philly are great teams over here, too," Forsberg said. "But the West is where you have to look."