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Sunday, February 09, 2003

By Dejan Kovacevic, Post-Gazette Sports Writer

If the Penguins are to make the Stanley Cup playoffs, Craig Patrick projects they will need to reach the "90-point range." And that makes for some intimidating math, as the team would have to win two-thirds of its remaining games to achieve that.

But Patrick also allows for the possibility that other teams could slip, recalling that the Canadiens took the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference last season with just 87 points.

"We'll see," he said. "You never know what other teams will do."

There is no way of knowing now, of course, but a projection by any method looks bleak for the Penguins.

To start, assume the Senators, Devils, Capitals, Flyers, Maple Leafs and Bruins will take the top six spots, given that all have 27 or more victories and show no signs of falling apart. Then, eliminate the Hurricanes, Thrashers and Sabres.

That leaves six teams to battle for the remaining two spots, and all are separated by only six points. Of those teams, the Penguins have the toughest remaining schedule, with two-thirds of their opponents currently owning winning records.

A breakdown of those six, in current order of standings:

Islanders
Record: 25-23-6-2, 57 points
Games remaining: 28
Home/road split: 11/17
Opponents left with winning records: 18 (64.3 percent)
Intangibles: Their fate likely will be decided by how they survive two West Coast trips, one of four games and another of six. All the parts seem to be in place, but injuries are taking a toll. Of special concern is the latest in a string of concussions for Kenny Jonsson Tuesday. He is back, but for how long?

Lightning
Record: 22-20-8-5, 57 points
Games remaining: 27
Home/road split: 14/13
Opponents left with winning records: 12 (44.4 percent)
Intangibles: Any team that hasn't reached the postseason in seven years is hardly a lock. But positive signs this team displayed early on, such as the surprising play of Martin St. Louis and Dan Boyle, have not abated. The only negative, has been the lackluster play of Nikolai Khabibulin, and that seems bound to turn around.

Canadiens
Record: 21-23-7-5, 54 points
Games remaining: 26
Home/road split: 14/12
Opponents left with winning records: 14 (53.8 percent)
Intangibles: The coaching change to Claude Julien helped, but again there are too many goals against and not enough scoring. If the top line of Saku Koivu, Marcel Hossa and Richard Zednik doesn't score, neither does Montreal. And with the defense leaking too many quality shots on Jose Theodore, that might not be good enough.

Penguins
Record: 22-24-4-5, 53 points
Games remaining: 27
Home/road split: 15/12
Opponents left with winning records: 18 (66.7 percent)
Intangibles: While they know how to build healthy winning streaks, they also are prone to losing streaks. Worse, the chance of getting equal value in the Alexei Kovalev trade seems minimal, given the demand for $4 million in cash in the deal. Those five road games in a row at the end of March look ominous, too.

Rangers
Record: 21-28-7-2, 51 points
Games remaining: 25
Home/road split: 11/14
Opponents left with winning records: 15 (60 percent)
Intangibles: As long as Pavel Bure and Brian Leetch are out -- there is no timetable for their return -- the chance of turning on their aging jets to get in seems slim. But Bure and Leetch are skating again, and Glen Sather did guarantee a playoff spot, so ...

Panthers
Record: 16-20-11-8, 51 points
Games remaining: 28
Home/road split: 13/15
Opponents left with winning records: 16 (57.1 percent)
Intangibles: Too young to show anything resembling consistency, as was evident when they won and lost by 6-0 margins on consecutive nights this week. On the plus side, they have another meeting with the Penguins in late March.