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Sunday, January 19, 2003

By Dejan Kovacevic, Post-Gazette Sports Writer

Sebastien Caron for the Calder? Sure, why not? Chances of any goaltender or defenseman being named the NHL's top rookie look strong, given the lackluster showing of the league's first-year forwards.

The Sabres' Ales Kotalik leads rookies in goals with 12. The Blue Jackets' Rick Nash and the Blackhawks' Tyler Arnason are the only others in double figures. All three might well be on the way to having bright careers, but their current numbers are more befitting a solid third-liner rather than the future hope of the sport.

And it's not a new development. Rookies just don't score anymore.

Not since Teemu Selanne's record-setting 76-goal performance with the Jets in 1992-93 has a player entered the league and scored half that amount. The most by a rookie since then was Jason Arnott's 33 in 1994. Of the six forwards to win the Calder since Selanne -- Peter Forsberg, Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Samsonov, Chris Drury, Scott Gomez and Dany Heatley -- none scored more than 26.

To be sure, goal-scoring has gone down for all players, not just rookies. As Selanne said in an interview at Mellon Arena a few weeks ago: "I think they're going to have to make the nets a little bigger if somebody is going to get 76. I know there are great rookies now, but the game has changed."

Selanne's career is evidence of that, as he never again topped 52.

Players are bigger and stronger, while rinks remain the same size. Scouting is more comprehensive, leaving little room for new players to surprise. Expansion has stretched the league so thin that the best rookies almost invariably enter with awful supporting casts.

Above all, the league's coaches, especially the majority who employ defense-first systems, have less tolerance for rookies whose primary trait is creativity. Given that few coaches last as long as three years on one job anymore, their margin for error is slim and their reward for losing while developing young talent comparatively minimal. That puts pressure on the rookies who do make it to fit in first, score later.

Sometimes, it works. Best recent example is Marian Gaborik. The Wild brought him along slowly as an 18-year-old two seasons ago, made sure he could work within Jacques Lemaire's rigid system, then gradually watched him mature into one of the NHL's top finishers.

More common, though, is the Gomez example. He had 70 points as a rookie with the Devils three seasons ago but eventually became so bogged down by New Jersey's dull ways that he is now just another stormtrooper. His point totals since then were 63, 48 and his current 26.

The issue extends globally, to players' development before they reach the NHL. The hockey being played at U.S. colleges and in the Canadian junior leagues is increasingly defensive, even in Quebec, which long had been famous for its firewagon brand. In Europe, too, the supply of skilled players, which seemed endless only five years ago, is being diluted because of ultra-conservative systems which routinely produce 1-0 scores.

It might not seem the NHL can do much about this, but it probably can.

For one, it could set a far more entertaining example. Most of the aforementioned outside leagues were not sold on the idea that a team could win a championship with the neutral-zone trap until the Devils put all their opponents to sleep in 1995.

For another, the league could do better to promote its younger players, as happens in basketball. There already are far more sports fans who know of LeBron James, the high school sensation slated to be the top pick in the next NBA draft, than those who know of Ilya Kovalchuk, hockey's most dynamic young talent since Mario Lemieux.

If that concerns the folks at the NHL offices, they have a peculiar way of showing it. Kovalchuk, owner of 25 goals and already a draw at gates around the NHL, was left off the All-Star Game roster, which is filled out by a league-appointed committee after the fans select the starters.