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Sunday, September 15, 2002

By Dejan Kovacevic, Post-Gazette Sports Writer

Not long after the NHL implements its long- overdue crackdown on obstruction for the coming season, you can expect to hear league officials citing numbers to prove that it's working. They will point to an increase in interference penalties or a higher ratio of power plays per game or some other sidelight statistic.

Pay no heed.

The only number that matters, the only one that will illustrate if the league is succeeding, is the one that shows how many pucks entered nets.

Goals, goals, goals.

As Mario Lemieux put it Thursday at Southpointe: "You're going to see guys scoring 60, 70, 80 goals now, and that's what people want to see. We had only one guy score 50 goals last year, and that's not right. There are a lot of good players in the league that were not allowed to play the way they wanted to."

The one player with 50 was the Flames' Jarome Iginla, and only four others had 40. No figure better underscored the way the modern NHL has little tangible separation between its stars and its serfs.

The game is about goals. Always has been, actually, only the league hasn't seemed to grasp that for more than a decade. Since the 1992-93 season, goals per game have plummeted from 7.25 to the 46-year low of 5.24 set last season.

This span has coincided with Gary Bettman's tenure as NHL commissioner, and there is evidence that is no accident. He admitted when he left his NBA job as David Stern's lieutenant that he knew little about hockey, and he has displayed that over the years by repeatedly stating that there was nothing wrong with low-scoring NHL games so long as they were close. That often is the case in basketball, seldom in hockey.

Even after speaking passionately about eliminating obstruction Tuesday before an unprecedented gathering of general managers, coaches and referees in Toronto , Bettman rejected the notion he will be able to weigh the crackdown's success by monitoring goals.

"I think it's a little unfair to point to one statistic and suggest that's a litmus test," he said. "There are a lot of things different from 10 years ago, including the fact that the goaltending in the game is better than it's ever been. You are going to be able to see it, and we'll know whether or not it's being called. But I don't think statistics will tell you the true story."

In reality, the goal total will tell the truth. The whole truth.

If league officials are serious this time -- and those closest to the process are devoutly convinced they are -- then the teams that will benefit the most are those with players who can skate and score. And if those players get the room they are now being promised, no amount of Michelin Man padding can rescue goaltenders from the onslaught that is sure to come.

It also spells big trouble for those teams which have leaned heavily on the concept of interference in recent years, notably the Canadiens, Hurricanes, Wild, Devils, Mighty Ducks, Senators and Predators. Carolina and Montreal, in particular, flagrantly and systematically violated obstruction rules.

But they won't be the only ones forced to adjust. Any franchise with little natural talent is sure to be left gasping if all the grasping is taken away, which could make for a wide disparity in the 2002-03 standings.

That will not trouble Lemieux.

"It's probably going to hurt teams that don't have as much talent and speed," he said. "But, if you look at every league, you have good teams and bad teams. That's the way it goes. Give the talented players a chance to show what they can do, and it's going to make the game better."

That could be true in the long run, too. What if there is a change in strategy? Neutral-zone traps and left-wing locks will be moot, and more aggressive styles will take over. And what if there is a change in drafting and development philosophies? The emphasis on big, two-way forwards that currently dominates the NHL could give way to bringing back more of the smaller, skilled types who once dominated the the league's scoring charts.

And if all that happens -- or even a modest portion of it -- there will be goals again.

Which is all that matters.

"We've got to go back to making the game exciting," Lemieux said. "Hopefully, that's going to happen this year."

Icy chips

Referees are sure to be the busiest men on the ice once the season -- and the crackdown -- begin. But the league wants to make sure they aren't also the most abused. A modification to Rule 41B will allow referees to assess an unsportsmanlike conduct minor to a player who argues a call against a teammate. Previously, this was a 10-minute misconduct which didn't make the offending team short-handed.

Don't count the Penguins' Dan LaCouture among those who have faith in the crackdown: "They're talking about having no picking. That's just not going to happen. This isn't soccer or basketball, you know? What if a guy skates runs into you? Are you going to sit for that? If you have position, you shouldn't be called for anything. There's a lot of gray areas."

Another gray area will be in how much the league allows defensemen to keep their partners from getting smeared on the forecheck. The NHL has taken steps toward reducing concussions and other injuries, but full-speed forwards driving defensemen into the no-seam, no-give glass could undo that progress in a hurry. League officials plan to keep a close eye on it.

The deal Keith Tkachuk signed with the Blues Friday further cements the figure Alexei Kovalev will require in a contract extension with the Penguins. Tkachuk is assured of getting $45 million over five years, same as the Rangers gave Bobby Holik and the Stars gave Bill Guerin this summer. If these players are the league's second-tier elite, then this clearly is how much they cost.

For one year, Tkachuk will be tied with Peter Forsberg and Jaromir Jagr for the NHL's top salary at $11 million. His figures go down for most of the rest of his deal.

Of the 22 restricted free agents remaining around the NHL, none stands out more than Kyle McLaren, the early front-runner for the Petr Nedved Award for longest holdout. What makes his case look like it could drag for months is that McLaren has told the Bruins he doesn't care about the money; he wants a trade. Management is expressing puzzlement and insisting it wants McLaren back.

Jiri Slegr, long represented by the same agent employed by Nedved for most of his 17-month holdout from the Penguins, is still an unrestricted free agent. Until he gets a contract, he will play for Litvinov in the Czech Extraleague.

Tom Barrasso, anyone? He's without a contract, too, and he needs only 32 more wins to 400.

Craig Patrick has expressed his disdain for fighting in camp, and the Penguins took a step toward keeping it to a minimum by keeping most of their tough guys -- Steve McKenna, Francois Leroux, Rick Berry and Jacques LaRiviere -- on the same team for the camp's intrasquad tournament. Other teams have gone further. The Senators, Canadiens, Panthers and Coyotes are booting anyone who fights from tournament games.

Fans in Ottawa and Vancouver will pay 10-20 percent more for single-game tickets against the most attractive opponents. If you want to know how that is being received in those cities, imagine how it would play if the Penguins hiked prices for games against the Flyers, Rangers or Capitals.

Paul Kariya, on the topic of the day: "I've heard they're going to make a crackdown. I've heard that five or six times in my career, then by Christmastime, it's like wrestling out there through the neutral zone. So, we'll see. I'd love to see it in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final, them calling it the same way as in October."

Only 25 days until the puck drops between Lemieux and Mats Sundin.

Dejan Kovacevic can be reached at dkovacevic@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1938.