Home >  Sports >  Notebooks

Sunday, January 13, 2002

By Dejan Kovacevic, Post-Gazette Sports Writer

Earlier this week, Rick Kehoe forecast that the Penguins will need 90 points to qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs this season.

That might be true, but a review of all eighth seeds since the NHL went to conference-based playoffs in 1993 shows the average number of points necessary actually is 83.5, while 90 was the most needed by any team, the 1999 Penguins and the 2001 Canucks.

Those numbers alone underscore the task facing the Penguins, owners of 39 points with 38 games remaining. To reach 90 points, they would need to go 25-12-1.

And that still might not do it, because they also are sure to need a bit of help. At least one of the teams currently occupying the Eastern Conference's top eight positions must take a nosedive.

So, who might it be?

Five safely can be categorized as locks. The Flyers, Maple Leafs, Bruins and Senators have the depth, diversity and drive to avoid any free fall. And, even though the Hurricanes still hear "Brass Bonanza" in their nightmares and are quite capable of a collapse, any vacancy on their part likely would be filled by the Capitals as the Southeast Division champion, which is guaranteed a berth.

The Devils make a good addition to the list, too, despite their current eighth-place position. Should their inexplicably flat play of the first half continue deep into this month, Lou Lamoriello is highly unlikely to sit still. And, unlike his counterpart in Pittsburgh, Lamoriello has plenty of cards with which to deal.

That leaves two teams as less than cemented:

New York, New York.

The Islanders began the season as the NHL's best team, going 11-1-1 on the strength of new acquisitions Alexei Yashin, Michael Peca and Chris Osgood. So confident were they that their marketing people began trying to draw fans with the slogan, "We're back! Are you?"

But the spectre of losing is tough to shake overnight, and much of this team's roster played a role in the franchise sitting out the past seven playoffs. Since that wild opening, the Islanders are 11-14-4-1 and have fallen to seventh in the conference. They have won four of their past 10, and their next three games are in Calgary, San Jose and Los Angeles.

Peca and Osgood are still earning their hefty paychecks, but troubles have surfaced elsewhere. After a strong first 30 games, Yashin has scored in just one of his past 14. Dave Scatchard, an important checker and 21-goal man last year, has two goals this season and has fallen into disfavor with Coach Peter Laviolette. And, worst by far, the steady defense tandem of Roman Hamrlik and Radek Martinek went down with long-term knee injuries two weeks ago, depleting an already thin corps.

Then there are the Rangers.

Eric Lindros is fresh off his seventh concussion. Mark Messier's shoulder is hurting so badly he can't lift his arm and is considering surgery. Theoren Fleury is back to drawing headlines for all the wrong reasons, his bizarre abandoning of his teammates here a few days ago the capper. And, above all, there is the ominous reality that it will be incredibly difficult for Mike Richter to maintain his brilliant level of play for three more months. In addition to facing 33 shots a night behind a porous defense, he also is expected to carry the full burden for the United States at the Olympics next month.

Just like that, a high-flying team that had been daring opponents to skate with them has lost six in a row, been outscored, 24-6, and gone 1 for its past 30 on the power play.

The Penguins, of course, hardly are in a position to gloat over any of this. Their list of misfortunes and miscues in the season's first half would fill this page, or they wouldn't be in the unenviable position of casting nervous glances at the standings before the All-Star break.

Dejan Kovacevic can be reached at dkovacevic@ post-gazette.com.