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Wednesday, October 03, 2001

By Dejan Kovacevic, Post-Gazette Sports Writer

Predicting the NHL's individual awards is never an easy task. Witness our performance in this space a year ago, a paltry 3 for 10. That's a swell batting average, but hardly good enough to influence you to bet your mortgage.

The lone consolation in providing these annual forecasts is that, each year, they were a virtual lock to produce at least one winner.

The Art Ross Trophy.

What could be easier?

When Mario Lemieux was playing, pick Lemieux.

When Lemieux retired, pick Jaromir Jagr.

Take one or the other, in fact, and you would have been right in nine of the past 10 seasons.

Now, it's not so simple.

Jagr, the NHL's four-time defending scoring champion, is in Washington, surrounded by unfamiliar linemates in Andrei Nikolishin and Dainius Zubrus, and equally foreign surroundings. More important, perhaps, he could feel compelled to try too hard to shake off his subpar performance of last season and start squeezing his stick.

Or he might just rack up 140 points and run off with the thing.

Same is true of Joe Sakic, who finished three points behind Jagr last season and has the Stanley Cup champions for a supporting cast.

Who will win it?

Onward with the picks ...

Art Ross Trophy

Mario Lemieux, Penguins

Three reasons: 1. He has made it a stated goal to win a seventh Art Ross. 2. He has won it each of the past six seasons in which he played 60 or more games. 3. For those of you who haven't seen him skate this preseason ... just wait.

Runners-up: Jagr, Sakic.

Hart Trophy

Joe Sakic, Avalanche

Employing the old best-player-on-an-elite-team line of thinking, Sakic should win his second consecutive MVP title. It won't hurt his cause, of course, to be skating between Alex Tanguay and Milan Hejduk as each prepares for what might be his breakout year. And, perhaps just as relevant, without Peter Forsberg or Raymond Bourque around, Sakic's importance to the group will be even better underscored.

Runners-up: Lemieux, Jagr.

Vezina Trophy

Dominik Hasek, Red Wings

He figures to benefit greatly from a tight and experienced -- read: old -- team working under a Scott Bowman system. A microscope might be needed to detect his goals-against average.

Runners-up: Olaf Kolzig, Capitals. Nikolai Khabibulin, Lightning.

Norris Trophy

Chris Pronger, Blues

This one might have been Pronger's third award in a row, had he not missed 31 games because of injury last season. He will more than make up for that with the finest season of a career that is rapidly emerging into brilliance.

Runners-up: Rob Blake, Avalanche. Eric Brewer, Oilers.

Richard Trophy

Mario Lemieux, Penguins

If he's going to win the scoring title and he's planning on being more of a gunner, then it stands to reason he'll have to lead the league in goals. Which he will, easily topping 50. The more intriguing question is how many of those might come from severe angles or behind the goal line.

Runners-up: Pavel Bure, Panthers. Milan Hejduk, Avalanche.

Lady Byng Trophy

Teemu Selanne, Sharks

If any former 50-goal man is poised to reach those heights again, it's Selanne. He's healthy, he's finally got a little help again after ducking out of Anaheim, and he'll win this award because he never stopped being a nice guy.

Runners-up: Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit. Zigmund Palffy, Los Angeles.

Calder Trophy

Ilya Kovalchuk, Thrashers

He has a blend of speed, power, finesse and nastiness the likes of which, many scouts believe, the NHL has never seen. And those six goals he rang up in the preseason did little to dispel the huge expectations surrounding him. This kid is the real deal, perhaps the best No. 1 overall draft choice in the league since Eric Lindros.

Runners-up: Rostislav Klesla, Blue Jackets. Kris Beech, Penguins.

Selke Trophy

Michael Peca, Islanders

It's incredible that he only once was recognized as the game's finest defensive forward while in Buffalo. Now, through the spotlight of a markedly improved team on Long Island, he will get his due. To boot, he'll top 30 goals for the first time in his career and have a significantly better season than his much better-paid teammate, Alexei Yashin.

Runners-up: Bobby Holik, Devils. Curtis Brown, Sabres.

Jack Adams Award

Bill Barber, Flyers

Coach of the year usually goes to the guy who leads his team to the most dramatic turnaround, and no club is poised for a leap to the top of the overall standings like Philadelphia, owners of the richest depth chart in the league. In their wildest fantasies, NHL head coaches get to draw up the kind of lineups Barber will doodle on his chalkboard every morning.

Runners-up: Joel Quenneville, Blues. Peter Laviolette, Islanders.

Conn Smythe Trophy

Chris Pronger, Blues

The one award any player would take in a trade over any other award will go to the premier performer on the championship team. And that will go to Pronger, the anchor upon which the Blues' superb defense is built. When St. Louis finally finds a big-league goaltender, it will lose to no one.

Runners-up: Doug Weight, Blues. John LeClair, Flyers.

Dejan Kovacevic can be reached at dkovacevic@ post-gazette.com.