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Thursday, November 30, 2000

A nationally syndicated sports talk show was asking its listeners the other day to call in and suggest teams that might unexpectedly sneak into the NFL playoffs.

Surprisingly, the Steelers received several votes. Not surprisingly, the callers supporting the Steelers were from Pittsburgh.

Deep in the heart of every true fan lurks the belief that his team can accomplish the impossible; that his team is capable of reaching unexpected heights; that his team will win out in the end. It's a commendable attribute, one that is found in abundance among Steelers fans.

Although many viewed the Steelers' loss to Jacksonville, which dropped their record to 5-6, as the end of the team's playoff chances, others were given hope by the win over Cincinnati Sunday.

The fans' optimism is buoyed by specific events. Surely, the thinking goes, if a team can win five games in a row early in the season, it can do the same later. Surely, a team capable of beating the New York Jets (8-4) on the road is capable of doing the same to almost any other team. Surely, the team that came within three points and two points of handling the Tennessee Titans is up for this challenge.

Unfortunately, it's not going to happen.

To have any chance to extend their season, the Steelers would have to win their remaining four games, and this team has about as much chance of doing that as it does of having a wide receiver make the Pro Bowl.

Even if they do win 10 games, it's no guarantee of a playoff berth. Since the NFL expanded its postseason to include 12 teams in 1990, only two teams with 10 victories have failed to advance. But this season, it's possible as many as two more could win 10 games and not make the playoffs.

But 10 wins, of course, would appear to be out of the question, although it certainly does have a nice symmetry to it. A 10-win finish would mean the Steelers season would have gone like this: Three losses, five wins, three losses, five wins.

The fact that the Oakland Raiders (10-2) come to town for a game Sunday at Three Rivers Stadium should be enough to erase any thoughts of winning all four games. The Raiders have the best record in the AFC and could be the best team in the conference. The notion that because they have a two-game lead in the West Division and therefore might not be especially motivated does not come with a lot of logic. The Raiders are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, a significant carrot to dangle in front of any team.

The Raiders are exactly the kind of team that gives the Steelers trouble. The Steelers' defense is sometimes capable of slowing down ordinary offenses, but it hasn't shown itself to be a match for a team than can move the ball like the Raiders.

Even if the Steelers should defeat the Raiders, there are other difficult games ahead. Following Oakland, they play at the New York Giants and then have the Washington Redskins at home in the final game at Three Rivers. The Giants are 8-4 and the Redskins are 7-5. Both will be highly motivated because a spot in the postseason figures to be at stake, and the Steelers have the look of a team that can be beaten.

There's nothing wrong with playoff talk from players or fans. It can serve an important motivational purpose. But the Steelers need more modest goals if they are to feel good about themselves at the end of the season. A .500 record -- which means splitting the final four games -- would appear to be more realistic.

Since the Steelers' final game is at San Diego, which has won only one game, splitting the final four is not unrealistic.

An 8-8 record -- considering preseason expectations and the team's poor start -- would almost be the equivalent of making the playoffs.

Bob Smizik can be reached at bsmizik@post-gazette.com.