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 Big money rides on the enrollment guessing game By Eleanor Chute, Post-Gazette Education Writer More than a decade ago, the state Education Department predicted that by 1995 enrollment in the Peters Township School District would shrink by 271 students. So Peters built its middle school on the small side. Instead, the district grew by 559 students over that decade, and its middle school is bursting at the seams. In a growing district, predicting enrollment is a science and an art. Being right is important because big bucks ride on these estimates. And being wrong can result in a school district building that provides too little or too much space, often with a multimillion-dollar price tag. Peters this summer broke ground on an $11 million project. While building a larger middle school a decade ago might have saved money, districts also need to consider the cost of unused space, said Peters business manager Daniel Solomon. In city schools this year, enrollment projections were used to determine how much money - on a per-student basis - each school will receive to pay for teachers, books and other expenses. "It drives the money to the schools," said city school budget director Pete Camarda. If the projections weren't high enough to support the programs, cuts were made for this fall. Actual enrollments will be studied on Oct. 1 and Feb. 1. If there is a difference of at least 10 students higher or lower, adjustments may be made. In the fast-growing Penn-Trafford School District in Westmoreland County, officials said their estimates are usually close to the mark. But occasionally, there are some blips on the screen. "Three years ago, we had a run on fourth-graders. Luckily, they moved into different schools," said Penn-Trafford assistant superintendent Deborah Kolonay. John Barry, director of student information services for the city, has been doing school enrollment projections since 1975 - usually with a high degree of accuracy. Last year's one-year projection was off by just 0.3 percent, largely because new schools attracted more students than expected. But long-range forecasts are tougher to hit. Just after the state made its prediction for Peters, for example, the annual rate of single-family housing development doubled. And in April 1992, the city school district forecast that the district's enrollment of 40,137 would grow to 43,115 in 1997-98 and to 43,728 in 2001. Instead, last fall's enrollment - 40,181 - was barely higher than in 1992 and failed to grow the expected 7.4 percent. "Anything that's 10 years ahead, there're so many factors that can happen - from the economic condition of the region to housing patterns to policies that are made in our school district that affect our attractiveness," Barry said. Now Barry is forecasting that the district will have 37,558 students in the2006-2007 school year, which is higher than the state's forecast of 35,975. While Barry usually does projections by region, he believes his school-by-school forecasts made for this fall will be accurate because feeder patterns haven't changed. So how do districts make predictions about enrollment? Each district has its own way of making projections; some rely on the state Department of Education while others hire outside experts or cultivate staff talent. In addition to looking at overall enrollment figures, the state weighs just two data sets culled from the most recent five years. Birth figures are one set, and the other, retention rates, measure the proportion of students moving from grade to grade. The state, which has districtwide projections through the 2007-2008 school year, acknowledges that its formula has some limitations. A written explanation of the formula notes that projections for districts with fewer than 1,000 students "tend to be less reliable." The state has been using this formula since 1976. It discards old district projections, officials said, and they don't review their district track record. Rich Hruska, state educational statistics associate, said, "Really, we haven't received very many complaints from the districts." Many districts make their own estimates, taking into account new housing starts, families moving, economic changes, the opening or closing of nonpublic or charter schools and special circumstances. Birth rates, for example, wouldn't show the whole picture in Mars Area School District in Butler County, which is growing by about 100 students a year. It is anticipating 2,485 students this fall. Mars superintendent William Pettigrew said that in the last few years, most of the new students have gone to the middle or high school. He said that's because most of the new homes aren't starter homes and are more expensive. "Sometimes it's the third home for people. Their children are older," he said. Dan Dancu, partner in Ingraham Planning Associates in Butler, has worked with 35 school districts on facilities and considers a wide variety of variables; among them, Dancu looks at 12-year enrollment histories and he talks with developers before making 10-year projections. Sometimes, a district isn't ready to build a facility large enough to meet the projections. In such cases, Dancu thinks it's critical to build larger common areas such as libraries, gyms and auditoriums. Then, the building could accommodate a later classroom addition. In Pine-Richland in 1988, Dancu recommended building a new high school for 950 students even though only about 500 were enrolled. Many in the community couldn't believe that the school would grow so much. The district built for 750 in 1993, but it made the auditorium and gym big enough for an enrollment of 1,000. Now, 10 years later, the district is expecting 939 students when school opens next week. Four portable classrooms have been moved to the school. The district is talking about expanding the cafeteria, which seats 250 to 300 students, and adding 25 to 30 new classrooms. Growth in Pine-Richland has not peaked. The Ingraham report received this month predicts 4,093 students districtwide in the 2007-2008 school year, compared to an expected 3,092 next week. But that's a slower growth than the state forecast. The state estimated there will be 4,536 students in the 2007-2008 school year - 443 more students than Ingraham's estimate. Boren said the district is more likely to give more weight to the Ingraham estimate because it was so close the last time. Fast-growing districts have to keep a close eye on trends, realizing that rapid growth may not continue forever. Seneca Valley in Butler County is one of the fastest growing locally. It's expecting 7,376 students this fall, an increase of 271 over last year. Ingraham forecasts the number will grow to 7,909 by the year 2000. Seneca Valley spokeswoman Linda Andreassi said growth four years ago was 4 percent, but last year it dropped to 1.9 percent. "There obviously comes a point in time with growth where it has to peak or drop. We think now that 2 percent might be the average to expect for some time," she said. Keeping up with the growth isn't easy. Since 1994, Seneca Valley has opened a new senior high school and a new middle school wing for fifth- and sixth-graders. But the Seneca Valley Middle School for seventh- and eighth-graders is so crowded that 10 portable classrooms are in use this fall. "It's a moving target," said Andreassi. Can the state predict the future? The state Department of Education at least tries. Below are its predictions for the 10 schools districts that will grow the most and the 10 that will shrink the most over a decade in Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland and Washington counties. The chart shows the actual enrollments last year and what the state expects in 2007-2008. The districts are ranked by the number of students expected to grow or decline between 1997-98 and 2007-2008. All but one of the shrinking districts - Hempfield in Westmoreland County - are in Allegheny County; all of the counties except Beaver have at least one district on the growing list. School district - 1997-98 - 2007-08 - Difference Growing Seneca Valley (Butler) 7,105 - 8,721 - +1,616 Pine-Richland (Allegheny) 2,986 - 4,536 - +1,550 Mars Area (Butler) 2,411 - 3,011 - +600 Penn-Trafford (Westmoreland 4,598 - 5,051 - +453 Chartiers Valley (Allegheny) 3,074 - 3,481 - +407 Peters Township (Washington) 3,292 - 3,696 - +404 Franklin Regional (Westmoreland) 3,826 - 4,215 - +389 Canon-McMillan (Washington) 3,979 - 4,307 - +328 South Butler County (Butler) 2,943 - 3,217 - +274 Hampton (Allegheny) 3,164 - 3,391 - +227 Shrinking Pittsburgh (Allegheny) 40,180 - 35,237 - -4,943 Hempfield (Westmoreland) 7,027 - 5,405 - -1,622 Woodland Hills (Allegheny) 6,153 - 4,987 - -1,166 Penn Hills (Allegheny) 6,027 - 4,880 - -1,147 Mt. Lebanon (Allegheny) 5,665 - 4,586 - -1,079 Plum (Allegheny) 4,421 - 3,369 - -1,052 North Allegheny (Allegheny) 8,422 - 7,502 - - 920 West Jefferson Hills (Allegheny) 2,995 - 2,105 - -890 Shaler Area (Allegheny) 5,537 - 4,703 - -834 Highlands (Allegheny) 3,293 - 2,599 - -694 Next: Rough start for school chief
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