Tuesday, August 19, 2003

By Brian O'Neill

In the division nobody deserves to win, the Pirates have moved 2 1/2 games closer to first place in the National League Central Division since The Great Salary Dump began.

	Baseball has been built on a mountain of statistics, but only with the arrival of the computer age has the stats geek thrived. This is an occasional series looking at the Pirates through the eyes of a numbers junkie.

The team's 15-13 record since July 20 has come despite a starting rotation and bullpen that are in shambles. It has come because the team is bashing the ball.

Manager Lloyd McClendon, freed from nurturing young underachievers, has begun rewarding productive codgers. Thirty-five-year-olds now bat cleanup and No. 5. The result is more runs than any National League team except Atlanta since the All-Star break. The Pirates were 14th in the league in runs before the break.

The first rule of baseball analysis is to beware of small samples. The Pirates have scored 160 runs in the past 31 games while facing some of the worst pitching in the league. Still, averaging better than five runs a game for more than a month is impressive. Matt Stairs and Reggie Sanders, who regularly have swapped the No. 4 and 5 spots in the batting order since the trades, are making it happen.

Let's compare them to their predecessors.

Stairs and Sanders have hit 10 home runs between them during their 110 at-bats in the cleanup spot. Aramis Ramirez hit 11 in 314 at-bats before being traded to the Chicago Cubs. The slugging percentages (total bases divided by times at-bat) for the three while batting cleanup are: Sanders, .806; Stairs, .604; and Ramirez, .468.

In the No. 5 hole, Stairs and Sanders have hit 19 home runs in 186 at-bats. Randall Simon hit eight in 203. The slugging percentages: Stairs, .824; Sanders, .659; Simon, .443.

It's not close. Nor is it close when the entire season's numbers are compared. Sanders is sixth in the league in slugging (.578). Stairs tops that (.592), but doesn't have enough times at-bat (213) to qualify as a leader. Ramirez is slugging .444 and Simon .415. The outcasts also lose when comparing on-base percentages.

That's why Simon was traded for a marginal outfield prospect. That -- and the $6 million he is due next year -- is why Ramirez was traded earlier, though whether the Pirates received adequate return for him and Kenny Lofton is a question for another day.

Today's question is what to do with Sanders and Stairs. Sanders makes $1 million and Stairs $900,000. It might take twice that to keep them, but both seem to like it here. Could they hit like this again?

Their current slugging percentages are roughly 100 points above their career averages, and each is streaky. On the other hand, their career averages are better than what Simon and Ramirez have done this season.

Simon's trade indicates the Pirates won't just give Stairs away because the Cubs obviously would have preferred him to Simon. That Sanders is still a Pirates player -- and leading the league in home runs since the All-Star break with 12 -- also indicates that General Manager Dave Littlefield has turned down unworthy offers.

The guess here is they keep the left-handed Stairs at first base and trade Sanders, given the other outfielders and right-handed hitters available. Corner outfielder J.J. Davis (.280, 24 HRs, 63 RBIs in Class AAA) could be called up as early as today. Craig Wilson, 26, with a .355 on-base percentage and .462 slugging percentage this season, and better numbers for his career, also has lost playing time to Sanders' red-hot bat.

The hope, of course, is the Pirates keep Sanders and Stairs and they continue to slam pitches until they're 40. It's a false hope, sure, but where would Pirates fans be without it?

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