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Tunisia's example: Successful elections followed the Arab Spring
Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Tunisia, the first country to accomplish change in the Arab Spring, has now held successful elections for a constitutional assembly, setting the pace for its neighbors.

On the basis of substantial, active, popular support, the small North African nation of Tunisia in January forced President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali out of office after 23 years and out of the country. Unlike Egypt, the next country in the region to oust a tyrant, Tunisia eschewed a period of military rule after the overthrow and held successful elections on Sunday. The polls were successful in that an estimated 90 percent of eligible voters participated, rejoicing in their new freedom. The elections were also peaceful and orderly, with the losers acknowledging the victory of the winners. European Union observers have attested the probity of the process.

The next step will be the naming of an interim prime minister and a government, expected to include representatives of losing parties. The assembly will then write a new constitution, including the ground rules for electing a president. Their work, putting a new order in place in Tunisia, is scheduled to be completed within months.

Some unique characteristics of Tunisia are probably making this so-far smooth transition possible. Its independence from France, in 1956, was acquired without the intense violence that tore up neighboring Algeria as it terminated French rule. Tunisians have had a reputation for being sensible in public policy; one example is the father of the country, Habib Bourguiba, who was eased out gently in 1987 when he became senile.

The party that came in first in this week's elections is a relatively moderate Islamist party, Ennahda, which won some 40 percent of the votes against candidates of many other parties. There is some thought that as Tunisia's democratization proceeds, Ennahda will turn out to be more Islamist than some secular-oriented Tunisians might like, or as the United States would prefer. It will behoove the United States to stay out of any intra-Tunisian political wrangling, tempting though it might be for Washington to meddle in what comes next.

The rest of the Arab Spring presents a very mixed picture at this point. Egypt started well but now might get stuck in a long period of military rule which would risk never ending. Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces seem to be more comfortable in running the country and the Department of Defense, the lead U.S. government agency in providing aid to Egypt, has no problem working with the Egyptian military as it always has.

Libya, which borders on Tunisia and Egypt, presents a confusing picture at the moment. With former leader Moammar Gadhafi dead and his regime dissolved, Libya has what is euphemistically called a "transitional" government, which in practice is hard to distinguish from no government. Some of its leaders are sounding militantly Islamist, which is disquieting for America and its NATO allies who enabled the rebels to get rid of Mr. Gadhafi. Probably the primordial fact of Libya today is that the whole country is awash in arms and no one has yet come up with a viable plan for disarming the various tribal militias.

At the moment, Americans should rejoice with Tunisians at how well things are going there and keep their fingers crossed on the rest.


First published on October 26, 2011 at 12:00 am