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Analysis: Football schedule might be No. 1 obstacle for Panthers
Saturday, August 28, 2010

A brutal schedule awaits the Pitt Panthers this season with road games at Utah, Notre Dame, Connecticut and Cincinnati and home games with six teams that are either ranked or have received votes in the two major preseason polls, including Miami and West Virginia.

Sprinkled in is a home game against chief nemesis Rutgers -- the Scarlet Knights have won four of the past five meetings -- and a road game at underrated South Florida.

That means the Panthers will be pushed to the limit just to have a chance to win in eight of their 12 games.

So, the schedule may be the biggest thing standing between Pitt and a double-digit wins regular season. The Panthers could be better than they were last year and still end up with three losses.

But Pitt's high expectations are based not on the schedule, but on such things as the presence of a Heisman Trophy candidate running back and a strong running game, one of the best receivers in the nation, a dominant defensive line and a defense that should be one of the best in the Big East if not the country.

Taking a look at each of those elements, leads to the belief that they all will hold up under scrutiny and pressure and the Panthers will, at last, meet their goal of a Big East Conference title. Here's why:

• Dion Lewis ran for nearly 1,800 yards last season, and nothing he has done suggests he is headed for a sophomore slump. He has been as good, if not better and has done so with limited touches while coaches were extremely cautious with him. But Lewis is only part of the running game -- he has the luxury of running behind perhaps the best blocking fullback in the country (Henry Hynoski) and offensive line which, if nothing else, is well-versed in run-blocking and has proven in camp it can run the Panthers' bread and butter running play (16-power).

• Like Lewis, wide receiver Jon Baldwin, was allowed to coast through camp, but, when he played, he showed why he is considered a possible first-round NFL draft pick as he made one big play after another. Baldwin is a master of making the incredible catch look easy, but this year he will face more double teams and special defenses. As a result, other receivers will be more free to stand tall, and that's a good thing. Why? Because it appears Pitt is loaded at receiver with Mike Shanahan, Cam Saddler, Devin Street, Ed Tinker and Greg Cross.

• Defensive end Greg Romeus took most of the month of August off with a stiff back but he needed only the Thursday practice to show he is more than ready for the season. Along with Jabaal Sheard, he will provide the Panthers with as good of a set of bookend defensive ends as there are in the country. The defensive tackles are very good, too, so, the defensive line will be poised to lead a unit that led the nation in sacks for the second consecutive year. "If we can't make plays with our defensive line, the scheme we run won't work," coach Dave Wannstedt said.

• Pitt also has veteran kicker Dan Hutchins who was 19 of 20 on field-goal attempts from inside 40 yards and doubles as a steady, reliable punter.

Those things, however, can only carry Pitt so far because, like every team, the Panthers' negatives could spoil a good or great season.

Chief among those concerns:

• Pitt has a first-year starter at quarterback in redshirt sophomore Tino Sunseri, a Central Catholic High School graduate who last year competed with Bill Stull for the starting job before ultimately settling in as the backup. Sunseri never has started a game. But he is smart, tough and, for the most part, had a solid preseason. There's no reason to believe he won't give Pitt a chance to win each game, but just giving the Panthers a chance is not enough considering their lofty goals. Sunseri has to make plays, and there is no way to determine whether he can until he has the opportunity.

• The offensive line lost three veteran starters, setting up a difficult transition. The unit was together throughout camp, which is a plus, but it has been inconsistent, especially in pass blocking. The key will be the performances of center Alex Karabin and right guard Greg Gaskins, neither of whom have played much less started a game.

• The "hiccup factor" has reared its head in each of Wannstedt's five seasons as coach, and that has prevented the Panthers from achieving their goals. In 2005, it was a horrible loss to Ohio. In 2006, it was a blown fourth-quarter lead against a bad Connecticut team. In 2007, it was a home loss against Navy. In 2008, it was a loss to Bowling Green. Last year, there was a blown lead against dreadful North Carolina State and a blown 21-point lead at home against Cincinnati. If Pitt is going to be a national power and Big East champion, it needs to go out and win every game it is supposed to and finish the job.

All told, it adds up to a team with enormous potential that is overdue to jump to a higher level, which is why anything less than a Big East championship and a double-digit win season -- despite the tough schedule -- will be a major disappointment.

Looking ahead

• What: Pitt at Utah in the Panthers' 2010 season opener, 8:30 p.m., Thursday.

• Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City.

• TV: Versus.

Paul Zeise: pzeise@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1720.
Check out Ray Fittipaldo's Pitt B-Ball blog and Paul Zeise's Pitt Stop videos about football exclusively on PG+, a members-only web site from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Our introduction to PG+ gives you all the details.
First published on August 28, 2010 at 12:01 am