One year removed from Wall Street hitting rock bottom -- at least for the time being, some might caution -- there's good news for Western Pennsylvanians who invest close to home.
The Post-Gazette/Bloomberg Index of regional stocks posted a slightly stronger recovery than major market indexes since the market bottomed out March 9, 2009. Through the one-year anniversary last Tuesday, it had risen 71.5 percent compared with a 68.6 percent advance for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials' 61.4 percent improvement.
The regional index, which is composed of companies that are based here or that have substantial operations in the region, has continued to outperform broad market indexes this year. It is up 5.7 percent since Dec. 31 vs. advances of 3.1 percent for the S&P 500 and 1.9 percent for the Dow.
Before you are overwhelmed with bullishness, here's something to ponder: The regional stock with the best performance over the past 52 weeks -- AK Steel [ticker: AKS], up 291.6 percent -- is also the stock that had the best performance in the 52-week period ending Oct. 9, 2007. That's the day when the Dow closed at its all-time high of 14,165.
Three other stocks that did well over the past year also were among the Top 10 performers in the year leading up to the market's peak: U.S. Steel [X] up 245.8 percent; Koppers Holdings [KOP], up 214.8 percent; and specialty metals producer Allegheny Technologies [ATI], up 180 percent.
The same four stocks have another thing in common: They numbered among the region's 10 worst-performing stocks from the market peak in the fall of 2007 to its 2009 low. You probably won't be surprised to learn that AK Steel, which operates a mill in Butler, suffered the most over that 17-month slide, dropping 87 percent.
On the upside of the cycle, West Chester, Ohio-based AK Steel has benefited from rumors that it is a takeover target as well as higher steel prices and the industry's anticipated recovery. Metals producers accounted for half of the top 10 performers over the past year, with Horsehead Holding [ZINC] and Alcoa [AA] joining AK Steel, U.S. Steel and Allegheny Technologies in the Top 10.
Another metals producer, Universal Stainless & Alloy Products [USAP] of Bridgeville, finished just outside the Top 10. It rose 151.5 percent during the rally, about two percentage points behind No. 10 Alcoa [AA], which rose 153.6 percent.
Only three of the 59 stocks in the index retreated during the rebound, and they were all members of the troubled banking sector: First Commonwealth Financial [FCF], off almost 4 percent; Parkvale Financial [PVSA], down 11 percent; and West View's WVS Financial [WVFC], which had fallen nearly 12 percent through Tuesday.
Coincidentally, WVS turned in the best performance among PG/Bloomberg index members between Wall Street's October 2007 high and March 2009 low. Its shares fetched as much at the beginning of the descent as they did at the end, while every other index member fell along with the broader market over that 17-month period.
When you throw in AmeriServ Financial [ASRV] and S&T Bancorp [STBA], banks accounted for five of the region's six worst-performing stocks during the market rally. That comes despite the fact that First Commonwealth has been the best stock in 2010. It is up nearly 40 percent for the year through Friday.
But the beleaguered banking industry had one stellar performer during the rebound: PNC Financial Services Group [PNC]. The bank's 184.9 percent ascent was about 2.5 times better than the performance of the PG/Bloomberg Index.
The three regional stocks that retreated during the rally accounted for about 5 percent of the PG/Bloomberg Index members. All 30 members of the Dow Industrials advanced over the same period, while 11 members of the S&P 500 -- or 2 percent -- lost ground over the last year.
Nearly two dozen stocks in the PG/Bloomberg Index saw their share prices at least double over the last year. The median performance was turned in by Wabtec [WAB], which advanced 75.8 percent. The Wilmerding rail industry provider is only one of two New York Stock Exchange members to register stock gains in each of the past nine years.
One regional stock that failed to respond enthusiastically to Wall Street's rising tide was Allegheny Energy [AYE]. Shares of the Greensburg utility were up only 13 percent during the one-year rise, even though they got a nudge last month when FirstEnergy [FE] of Akron, Ohio, proposed a stock-and-debt bid valued then at $8.5 billion. Allegheny Energy shares continue trading for about $3 less than the value of FirstEnergy stock that investors would receive if the merger is consummated, indicating there are some doubts whether that will happen.
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