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Countdown begins for 2010 census
Monday, March 08, 2010

OK, America, get ready to count off: one, two, three ... 308,803,464 ... 308,803,465 ... 308,803,466.

The U.S. Census Bureau does not actually line up everyone in the country shoulder to shoulder to get its decennial population count, but the next few weeks do involve a process in which everyone's expected to step forward.

Most households can expect to receive mail this week informing them that census forms are about to be sent to them. The 120 million actual forms are mailed next week, urging people to complete and return them by April 1. Later in the month, reminders come in the mail asking if households sent them in.

It's a multi-step process that is hardly completed by April, however. An army of some 700,000 census takers is being assembled to knock on doors this spring of people who fail to comply by mail.

"It's a little harder than fighting a war because you have to win it in just a few months," said Robert Groves, national census director.

At stake is not just bragging rights, as states and municipalities jockey to prove their popularity by growth since 2000, but congressional seats and some $400 billion in federal funding based on population. Pennsylvania is likely to lose one of its 19 seats -- good news, actually, in that the state has lost two congressional representatives after every other recent census.

The census bureau, local governments and private groups partnering with them will increase public attention on the national count in upcoming weeks. Here are a few key points they're emphasizing:

• There is no longer a census long form, just a 10-question short form seeking basic information such as age and race of household members. It is supposed to take 10 minutes or less to complete.

• As in the past, the information is confidential, with census staff barred by law from sharing it with other government agencies or anyone else.

• About 72 percent of the population voluntarily mailed back their responses 10 years ago, and for every percentage point that is increased, the government saves an estimated $85 million in costs associated with household visits.

Despite their drumbeat that the census is "easy, safe and important," officials know they can't expect 100 percent willing participation from the public.

"People don't like filling out forms, and they sure don't like filling out forms for the federal government, and they'll only do it if they're mandated," Pittsburgh census partnership specialist Benita Johnson told a group of representatives of city neighborhoods last week.

"We have never put anyone in jail," she noted. "People don't fear us like the IRS."

The census traditionally has the most difficulty winning easy cooperation from minorities, immigrants, renters, transients, those with low income and education and young adults.

The Pittsburgh region has fewer minorities and foreigners and a more stable population of homeowners than most comparable-sized cities. In suburbs such as Rosslyn Farms, Pleasant Hills and Bethel Park, nearly 90 percent of people mailed back forms before the door-knocking followup began in 2000.

There are pockets of the region that are far more difficult, however, especially in city neighborhoods with lots of public housing or other low-income sections of the Hill District, Homewood and the North Side.

Trying to reach those areas and others, Mayor Luke Ravenstahl and Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato appointed a Complete Count Committee of volunteers working over the past year with community organizations, churches, schools and other groups to try to spread word of the importance of the census for local funding.

"I feel the outreach has been very intensive," said Pittsburgh planning Director Noor Ismail, noting special efforts involving the local Hispanic and Islamic communities, among others.

The census bureau has been taking applications for months and testing those interested in the door-knocking enumerator positions, although most hiring and training won't be done until later this month. Officials say the biggest challenge has been a shortage of applications from the same neighborhoods considered hardest to count, based on the various demographic factors.

"We do want to hire people from the neighborhoods themselves who are comfortable there and can gain the trust of people living there," said Philip Lutz, the census bureau assistant regional manager overseeing most of Pennsylvania.

He said the shortage of applicants from disadvantaged areas of Pittsburgh and elsewhere has been surprising considering the high unemployment rate in those same places.

As much as census and local government officials want to guard against an undercount of the population -- the bureau estimates the national undercount was 1.4 percent in 2000 -- steps are also being taken to reduce the possibility of an overcount.

Overcounts occur when the same person gets counted in two different geographic locations, such as college students listed by their parents at their home address while their school also reports them among their population of dormitory students. Retirees who winter down south are another group subject to overcount.

One analysis last year, done by Temple University professor Eugene Ericksen, estimated the city of Pittsburgh had a net overcount of 752 residents in 2000 because of such mistakes. It was the only one of 11 cities he examined where he found an overcount, thought to be possible because of the high number of college students and senior citizens in the city.

Census officials say they have no information to confirm that analysis, but they say instructions on the forms and other methods -- such as telephone follow-up -- will make greater effort this year to emphasize people should be counted only where they live the majority of the year. For that reason, college students away from home are to be counted at their dorm or their own off-campus housing, not by their parents.

More census information may be found at www.2010.census.gov.

Gary Rotstein: grotstein@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1255.
Washington correspondent Daniel Malloy writes the "Pittsburgh On The Potomac" blog exclusively at PG+, a members-only web site of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Our introduction to PG+ gives you all the details.
First published on March 8, 2010 at 12:00 am