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Ukraine's turn: An election tilts the nation toward Russia again
Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Ukraine's precarious place between Western Europe and the remaining sphere of influence of the old Soviet Union was illustrated by the results Sunday of its presidential election.

Former Prime Minister Viktor F. Yanukovich defeated former Orange Revolution leader Yulia V. Timoshenko by a decisive margin. The Orange Revolution of 2004 was considered to be a statement by Ukrainians that the country's days as a satellite of the former Soviet Union were over. Viktor A. Yushchenko defeated Mr. Yanukovich for president that year in an election that nearly signified a revolution. Mr. Yushchenko, the victim of a disfiguring, near-fatal attack, won in part because of support by Ms. Timoshenko.

Then came the hard part -- ruling Ukraine, a relatively poor country with a significant Russian-speaking minority. Ukraine at the point of the Orange Revolution had hopes of turning westward toward membership in NATO and the European Union and the resulting prosperity and security from Russia that had come with that status for neighbors Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and other former Warsaw Pact members.

Whether it was the country's close relationship with Russia, its internal divisions, corruption or Russian interference, Ukraine not only didn't look westward this time, with the election of Mr. Yanukovich it has now chosen a leader more closely attuned to Moscow's wishes than Ms. Timoshenko would likely have been.

Various interpretations abound on what his election may mean for Ukraine, the European balance of power and the United States. Mr. Yanukovich was advised in his campaign by former consultants to 2008 Republican presidential nominee Sen. John S. McCain. It is possible to say that a more balanced posture for Ukraine toward Russia is a stable one, more likely to tone down its external and internal conflicts, creating an atmosphere conducive to the economic development that Ukraine needs badly. As to the EU, it doesn't need or want Ukraine as a new member since the union is sufficiently burdened already with the financial woes of its poorer members.

For the United States, its basic relationship with Ukraine remains unchanged, influenced by Americans of Ukrainian origin. The United States does not need Ukraine as a further bone of contention between it and Russia. If Moscow wishes to see Mr. Yanukovich's win as a victory for it in the region, so be it. The Ukranians have spoken at the ballot box, for better or for worse.

Cartoonist Rob Rogers does "Rob's Rough," an early look at his work and his creative process, exclusively at PG+, a members-only web site of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Our introduction to PG+ gives you all the details.
First published on February 9, 2010 at 12:00 am