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Republicans flocking to midterms
Monday, February 01, 2010

A burst of Republican enthusiasm that has been the talk of political pundits in this midterm election year seems to have spread into Western Pennsylvania.

At least 18 Republicans are in the hunt to unseat three Western Pennsylvania Democrats -- Kathy Dahlkemper, Jason Altmire and Mike Doyle -- in November. Statewide, it appears there are more GOP candidates running since 1994, the landmark "Republican revolution" takeover year in Congress.

There has not been a Republican on the ballot in Mr. Doyle's Democrat-heavy, Pittsburgh-based 14th District in 12 years. This year at least four are trying to run.

"Why so many candidates? They were recruited by Barack Obama," explained David Hiles, 63, of Banksville, one of those vying for the GOP nomination for Mr. Doyle's seat.

The huge number of candidates is a break from the past few election cycles, in which Republican leaders had trouble finding legitimate candidates statewide.

"People are calling and saying 'I'm going to run.' Usually I have to talk people into running," said Jim Roddey, chair of the Republican Committee of Allegheny County. "Now we've got a prolificacy of riches here."

In each of the congressional races there are one or two members of the "tea party" or "9-12" groups that have demonstrated against Mr. Obama's policies, but that does not account for the entire surge. The main thing most of the Republican candidates have in common is it is their first run for political office of any kind.

Retired Crawford County businessman Paul Huber, 65, said he decided to run for Ms. Dahlkemper's 3rd District seat last spring after the federal auto and banking industry bailouts. "I was concerned and upset about the direction the liberals in Congress are taking this country. With their tax and spend programs and job-killing legislation, I couldn't sit by," he said last week.

Ed Franz, 48, a worker at GE's locomotive plant in Erie County, was a speaker at Erie's first tea party rally last April 15. "The Republican Party really needs to take a stand for the middle-class taxpayer in this country. I'm not running just to get a Republican in -- I'm running because of the conservative values of the platform," he said.

Navy veteran and Butler County salesman Clayton Grabb, 48, another tea party activist, describes his first political run with religious zeal. "We're all experiencing an awakening. It's up to us right now to make a change."

One of the few candidates who has run for office -- Bellevue tax collector Joe Nolan, 53, who is looking to unseat Mr. Doyle in the 14th District -- appreciates the new energy in the party. Scott Brown's improbable GOP victory in the special U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts Jan. 18 didn't hurt, either.

"All of a sudden that showed lot of people it was very doable," he said. "I've never seen people this fired up about politics. I wish it would work down to the local level."

Locally, participation in the Republican Committee of Allegheny County has almost tripled during the last three years, going from 352 members to more than 900, Mr. Roddey said. That's nice, but county Democrats count 2,500 in theirs.

Democrats also have a giant edge in fundraising. Mr. Doyle had $391,000 in the bank to start the year and his tentative opponents zero. Ms. Dahlkemper had $544,000 as of September and her closest fundraising rival on the Republican side, Mr. Huber, had $225,000 on hand, though he loaned $150,000 of his own money to the campaign. Mr. Altmire had almost $1 million in the bank.

That follows the national model: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which can be expected to assist the Altmire and Dahlkemper campaigns, began the year with $16.7 million in cash, to the $2.7 million held by its Republican counterpart.

All three Democratic incumbents are currently unopposed in their party, meaning they can get a head start while their GOP opponents campaign through the May 18 primary, giving them only six months to raise money anew for the November general election.

The candidates' inexperience also could hurt them with other political nitty-gritty, such as collecting the 1,000 Republican signatures necessary to get on the primary ballot. Candidates have failed to get that many valid signatures in the past few 14th District races.

"The fact that we're nine months away from Election Day and nothing but a group of second-rate candidates has emerged to challenge Congresswoman Dahlkemper speaks volumes about her local support," said Shripal Shah, a DCCC spokesman.

For reasons like those, Republican leaders may try to rally around one candidate in each race, such as former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan in the 4th District. She has not officially entered, and the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee is not endorsing anyone, but "she would be a very good candidate," RCCC spokesman Tory Mazzola said.

Democrats are hoping that the onrush of new congressional candidates -- including tea party activists -- will clash with more established names, like Ms. Buchanan, leading to internecine party warfare like that in New York's 23rd District race in November, which opened the door for an unlikely Democratic win.

They also can argue that their candidates are not so different from their opponents -- like many of the Republicans in this year's races, Ms. Dahlkemper and Mr. Altmire had never run for office before campaigning for Congress. Both represent districts that voted Republican in the 2008 presidential race. (Mr. Doyle has been in office since 1995. His former 18th District was merged into the 14th District in 2002.)

The momentum toward the Republican side in Pennsylvania, and against incumbents, could wash away any of the GOP's problems with experience, fundraising or organization, said political scholar Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College.

It was shown in statewide appellate court races in November, where Republicans won six of the seven seats on the ballot, and in his latest poll, which found half of registered Republicans say they are likely to vote in November, compared to a third of Democrats.

"It is such an odd election, incumbents could be swept out regardless when the tidal wave comes," he said.

Tim McNulty: tmcnulty@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1581. Read the Early Returns blog at post-gazette.com/politics.
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First published on February 1, 2010 at 12:00 am