HARRISBURG -- State Rep. Dave Reed is leading the Republican campaign to regain control of the state House this fall. State Rep. Michael Gerber is working just as hard to keep the chamber in Democratic hands.

Mr. Reed, of Indiana, Pa., needs a net gain of just three seats for the GOP to run the House, which it did from 1995 through 2006. With surprise Republican victories in a U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts and the governor's race in New Jersey -- both of them normally Democratic states -- Mr. Reed thinks this could be a Republican year in Pennsylvania.

"Massachusetts and New Jersey are bright blue," meaning heavily Democratic, Mr. Reed said last week. "With them going red [for Republican], a purple state like Pennsylvania could also go red this year."

Purple means the Keystone State sometimes goes Democratic and sometimes Republican. In recent years, however, it's been trending Democratic, with both U.S. senators and Gov. Ed Rendell in the blue column, and the state going heavily for President Barack Obama in 2008.

Mr. Obama, however, isn't nearly as strong politically as he was a year ago, and the upset victory two weeks ago in Massachusetts of Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown for the seat previously held for nearly 40 years by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, a Democrat, has cheered GOP forces across the nation.

Mr. Gerber, of Montgomery County, is confident the Democrats will stay in charge of Pennsylvania's House and maybe even pick up a seat or two.

"Pennsylvanians will grow tired of the Republican strategy of 'saying no' to everything but offering no constructive ideas of their own," said Mr. Gerber. "Democrats are working hard to improve the state's economy, create jobs and clean up state government."

Christopher Borick, a professor and pollster from Muhlenberg College, said it will be an interesting year, with races for governor, the U.S. Senate and control of the House, which he said is "absolutely in play this year."

He added, "Pennsylvania ebbs and flows, in terms of each party's success, and right now the flow is toward the Republicans."

But Chuck Ardo, of the House Democratic Campaign Committee, isn't convinced that what happens in Massachusetts will mean much in Pennsylvania.

"All politics is local and local issues are important in state House races," Mr. Ardo contended. "Voters in any state House district in Pennsylvania don't necessarily vote for a candidate because of trends in some other state. I don't think we should overly stress the Scott Brown win in Massachusetts."

Both Mr. Reed and Mr. Gerber are in their 30s and are rising members of their parties, so both have reasons of personal ambition for wanting to win this year, as well as a desire to help their parties.

There is virtually no chance the state Senate will change hands this year, since Republicans now control it by an almost unsurmountable 30-20 margin.

Democrats took control of the House by just a single seat in November 2006. Rep. Barbara McIlvaine Smith, D-Chester County, won -- by just a handful of votes -- what had been a Republican seat. That gave House Democrats a razor-thin margin of 102-101 in the 2007-08 session.

They increased that to a 104-99 margin for 2009-10. But Republicans have a good chance to regain Ms. McIlvaine Smith's seat plus another seat in adjacent Delaware County that is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Bryan Lentz, who is running for Congress. Ms. McIlvaine Smith, who has grown disillusioned with what she believes are outdated procedures and a lack of emphasis on reform, is not seeking re-election.

In all, six House Democrats -- those two plus Speaker Keith McCall of Carbon, Kathy Manderino of Philadelphia, Richard Grucela of Northampton and Tony Melio of Bucks -- have decided to pack it in, with a seventh, Rep. Frank Oliver of Philadelphia, possibly leaving.

Republicans "will be competitive" in the Philadelphia suburbs and the Lehigh Valley, counties such as Delaware, Chester, Bucks and Northampton, Mr. Reed said.

The Lehigh Valley seat of Mr. Grucela "could go either way," he added. Mr. Borick agreed, calling it "by no means a safe Democratic seat." Conversely, Democrats are almost certain to retain seats from Philadelphia.

So far, no lawmakers from the western half of the state have talked of leaving. There has been speculation that one-time House Democratic leader Bill DeWeese of Waynesburg might retire after 34 years, but he said recently he's probably going to seek re-election. Mr. DeWeese has been charged with having two people on his legislative payroll who performed mostly political work.

The retiring Democrats could be offset by six incumbent Republicans who are also saying goodbye to Harrisburg. They include Rep. Sam Rohrer of Berks, who is running for the GOP nomination for governor, plus Reps. Mario Civera of Delaware County, Will Gabig of Cumberland, Merle Phillips of Northumberland, Katie True of Lancaster and Russ Fairchild of Union.

Mr. Civera's Delaware County district is near Philadelphia and the Philly suburbs have been trending more for Democrats in recent years. So that district could be a pickup in the blue column.

Three House seats also are currently vacant and are to be filled in special elections held on primary day, May 18. Former Rep. Don Walko, D-North Side, is now a judge, as is ex-Rep. Craig Dally, R-Northampton, while former Rep. Bob Mensch, R-Montgomery, is now a state senator.

Some retiring lawmakers say they've been around long enough -- 20 years or more in some cases -- but the increasing stress and strain of being in the state Legislature is cited privately by some of those who are leaving.

Also, criticism from the public stemming from Bonusgate -- Attorney General Tom Corbett's ongoing probe into whether taxpayers' funds were paid to legislative staffers for political work -- is wearing on some incumbents.

Polls show the Legislature held in low esteem by many citizens, while ongoing disputes over the state budget -- the 2009-10 budget was 101 days late last year and another impasse looms this year -- is also contributing to members calling it quits.

Looking for more from the Post-Gazette? Join PG+, our members-only web site. You'll get exclusive sports content, opinion, financial information, discounts from retailers and restaurants, and more. Our introduction to PG+ gives you all the details.