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Marian Salzman, a New York public relations executive who specializes in predicting trends in politics, pop culture and the business world, had this initial gut reaction to the social Web site Facebook: It was an electronic dating guide for Ivy League graduates, "and I thought it was going nowhere."
Nearly six years after a Harvard University student launched the site that has grown to become one of the most popular destinations on the Internet, Ms. Salzman acknowledged she was, well, wrong.
"All of us need to really rethink ... the creation of content, news and community," she said yesterday during a presentation to Pittsburgh advertising, marketing and communications professionals.
Ms. Salzman, president of Euro RSCG Worldwide PR, North America, appeared at The Rivers Club, Downtown, to discuss her annual Top 10 Trends list at a lunch co-hosted by local chapters of the Advertising Federation, the Business Marketing Association and the International Association of Business Communicators.
Though she once predicted Facebook would fizzle and so would Twitter, Ms. Salzman said such digital phenomena now drive how people work, shop, collaborate and spend their leisure time.
For 2010, her trend projections range from an emphasis on "hyperlocal" activities - people will spend more time at potluck dinners in their neighborhood cul-de-sacs and will crave local community news - to finding creative ways to raise money for putting children through college.
The most important trend on her list, Ms. Salzman said following her presentation, is "a universal brain-health movement" that will address everything from potential problems from using cell phones, such as exposure to radiation, to the dangers of not wearing helmets in sports and recreation activities and post-traumatic stress disorders that afflict military personnel.
"We're heading to the moment where cell phones are the new tobacco."
Ms. Salzman joined Euro RSCG in August after holding top positions at other global communications firms including Porter Novelli and JWT Worldwide. She has written or co-authored 15 books and is sought after by broadcast and print publications to deliver trends projections - especially every December.
"The last two weeks are the worst of the working year. For 50 weeks, no one cares about the future.
Then every media organization suddenly needs to know." The end of 2009 was even more frantic than usual, she said, "because we were getting rid of a decade."
"The last time we were so obsessed it was with Y2K [at the end of 1999], and we didn't think about al-Qaeda. This time the turnover was pensive, quiet contemplation."
For the new decade, the predominance of Web-based information and a lack of privacy that results from cell phones and other electronic communication devices, means "each of you is a media property," she told the audience.
"Google has you figured out better than your spouse or your credit card company."
1. Lines that zig but don't zag: People want more knowledge about each other's political and religious affiliations, leading to hyperpolarization among groups.
2. Beware the MobMedia: Bullies can be virtual and can wield lots of power as they attack targets ranging from celebrities to political figures to local teachers and corporate brands.
3. Children's place: Children are increasingly exploited as prime-time props. For example, The Balloon Boy, the Obama daughters and Jon and Kate's brood.
4. Obamaclock: Measuring time by what the president has accomplished -- or not -- during his first term in office.
5. Heading off angst: A "brain-health" movement that includes scrutiny about radiation from cell phones, helmet safety, traumatic brain injuries and post-traumatic stress disorder.
6. No piggy in the bank: Coming up with creative ways to raise money for nonprofits, for startups and for putting the kids through college.
7. In-your-face honesty: A trend among celebrities to speak out about their misdeeds so the media puts it behind them. David Letterman did it right; Tiger Woods didn't.
8. Go community! A focus on "hyperlocalization" including spending more time in your neighborhood and learning community news and issues. Social media tools will fuel this.
9. The shadow of the bomb, again: Increased anxiety about events in places including Pakistan, North Korea and Iran. Potential terrorist attacks such as the Christmas Day incident on Northwest Airlines only heighten the concerns.
10. Hands-on aspirations for in-sourcing: Fix your own plumbing, tile your own floor or mend something because it's comforting to do something with your hands. Even doing laundry feels good.
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