Text Size:
A|
A|
A
Email
PrintThis Sunday Magazine story with an eye toward the future was originally published in August of 1995.
Get out your crystal balls and fasten your seat belts. We're about to ride a wave of predictions into the 21st century.
Why now? Because it's 1995, the year when the vibes should be reaching out to us from the next millennium, according to the folks at Trends Research Institute in Rhinebeck, N.Y. With the Industrial Age making way for the Information Age, we want to be prepared.
Judging from the Western Pennsylvanians we talked to, there's a tempered excitement about our potential as a technological and cultural region, while a few of you aren't ruling out a catastrophe of Nostradamus-sized proportions. Practicality, however, was the rule.
"It's difficult to imagine what new professions people will be doing," Dave Pahnos of the NASA Robotics Engineering Consortium said as he mused on a future filled with "smart" robots to do much of the work for us.
"It was just as difficult at the turn of the (20th) century, when a majority of the workforce was in agriculture. They couldn't imagine what all those people would do when they left the farm. But the nice thing about people is that they are very inventive about finding productive things to do."
Says Gerald Celente, editor of the institute's Trends Journal, "Something really different does happen, according to history, when those 1,000-year marks hit."
When future shock hits, it's likely to come in waves of technological advances, everything from genetic engineering to virtual reality vacation. Hopeful thoughts include nostalgia for tomorrow: a baseball-only stadium in Pittsburgh.
Research by the Information Networking Institute at Carnegie Mellon University came up with a view of the United States in the year 2010 that ''made me so depressed, I've stopped thinking about it," says institute director Ben Bennington.
He foresees significant changes in demographics, access to education and the nature of work. "This will make for a faster pace, more complex world -- a nastier world," Bennington warns. "There will be more interdependency, more vulnerability, more opportunity for mischief."
He says this as a certainty.
But even he isn't entirely pessimistic, getting excited when he talks about information technology.
"Personally, I think having an excitement about the future is crucial to living today," says astronomer Martin Ratcliffe of the Carnegie Science Center.
To come up with more visions of the future relevant to our readers, we talked to a diverse group of people prominent in their fields and posed this question:
What does the next century have in store for Western Pennsylvania?
Here's what they foresaw:
DAVE PAHNOS, NASA Robotics Engineering Consortium
There is a whole new generation of machines actually about to go commercial in the next five years. These are intelligent, mobile machines. The word we use for them is autonomous -- they deal with the world as they find it; and they have the capacity to do work.
As labor rates become less a component of manufacturing, we'll see what we considered the 19th-century criteria for productivity come back in the 21st century -- quality of engineering and of design, productivity of the plant and proximity to power, raw materials and transportation. ... (Western Pennsylvania is) very, very well positioned for transportation, for power, for things I just said, and remember the first one was engineering -- we have currently one of the best technological workforces in the country.
As the world becomes wired with fiber-optic cable we're going to have a 360-degree field of view and high resolution. ... If you think about the primary reason for business travel, it's for face-to-face meetings. ... If you can give the viewer a rich enough visual field to make the viewer feel that he's there, think about what that will mean. Even right here, in the workplace. Do you really have to come into the office? What for? The whole concept of office space is going to change.
BEN BENNINGTON, Director, Information Networking Institute, CMU
I'm not terribly bullish on technology. Because, while you can predict techology, you can't predict the market. ... You talk to a teen about why he buys CDs. He won't talk about the music. He'll say I like having a collection on my shelf so my friends can see them. The same with a newspaper. I once asked a guy about why he reads a newspaper. He talked about waking up before everyone else, how he put the coffee on, how he went out to pick up the newspaper.
I'm hot on mobile communications. First, in terms of capability and size of computers. We already have the wearable computer here at CMU. There's no reason why computers can't become as small and as cheap as you want them. ... It's the one area I would buy stock in and take it to the bank.
MARTIN RATCLIFFE, Head of planetarium department, Carnegie Science Center
Regarding space flight, there's an intriguing thing. ... I (could) see Europe and the Japanese as being leaders in the next century in space. ... Of course, the ideal is that the whole planet will get together; that's what the international space station is about.
Many look at this as a romantic idea, but there's a more important reason, which we saw when a comet hit Jupiter. The chances are that sometime in our history, the Earth will be hit by a rather large object. We know in the past, this causes extinction. Looking maybe 1,000 years into the future, it could mean the survival of the human race.
TOM MURPHY, Pittsburgh mayor
Pittsburgh will need to cooperate more closely with the county and other governments to be successful and competitive. The city needs to recognize that we will be facing a global economy, and in that light the airport will serve us to great advantage. The other piece is ... continuing recognition that the universities and hospitals and their research facilities, the growth of banks here and the development of the land along our rivers all provide us with great opportunities.
MORTON COLEMAN, University of Pittsburgh's director of the Institute of Politics
We're in one of the periods like the Industrial Revolution in England in the 1840s. This time, it's a major shift in the world's technology. Pittsburgh has to reposition itself in a nonindustrial world. The outcome of that will determine our politics. If we emerge as an important economic center, we'll have a strong political base. If we emerge as a small, regional center, we'll be a small player in politics.
SOPHIE MASLOFF, Former Pittsburgh mayor
I think the Pirates will have a new stadium like the one I proposed -- before the end of the century -- which means they will stay in Pittsburgh for a while. Cyril Wecht will be back in the political scene, and not just as coroner. Housing problems in the city and county are both long overdue for review, and I think that will happen in the next few years. Both governments will also be plagued by money trouble as the tax base continues to shrink.
RICK SANTORUM, U.S. Senator
The next century presents great opportunity for economic growth and expansion in Western Pennsylvania. ... Over the past two decades, our area has rebounded and adapted well to the modernization of the workforce. This transition, as well as our low cost of living and our high quality of life, will help us build on these successes and utilize our dedicated and skilled workers into the next century.
RAYMOND CHRISTMAN, President, Southwestern Pennsylvania Industrial Resource Center
Pittsburgh will be one of the nation's leading examples of the integration of technology and manufacturing, characterized by hundreds of smaller companies employing the latest in technology and modern manufacturing practices. ... (As a result,) Pittsburgh in the 21st century will be among the top 10 high technology regions in America, driven by our world leadership in computer software, environmental technology and biomedical research.
ERROL FRAILEY, Pittsburgh Downtown Partnership
Downtown will be in position to be more of a player in the retail market with the addition of more unique retail stores. I would project in five years that people won't be as concerned with safety here and litter on Downtown sidewalks. Those concerns will be addressed. ... One thing I think we'll see, not even far into the next century, is that Pittsburgh will be viewed as a major destination -- we think now about New Orleans for conventions, or San Francisco, or New York, but people haven't thought about Pittsburgh in that regard.
JOHN CRAIG, Editor, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Two things are going to happen: There is going to be an increasing intimacy on a global basis in communications. We're going to find a lot of institutions in the business becoming international, like CNN. Concurrently, there will be the the development of regional communication powerhouses. ... The people in this region, in Pittsburgh, are an economic and social entity. That's irreversible.
Newspapers will be around in some form because ... there are thousands of pieces of information out there, and people need someone to help sort them out. One example is classified advertising. ... That kind of organizational effort, and the currency of it, is something people will pay for. I also think there's a long-term market for good storytelling, for entertaining. ... I think (newspapers) will be printed for a long time. I don't think it's likely that newspapers will be as big, and they won't be circulating as much. (Instead), they will send some information through faxes or laser printers in people's homes.
CAROL BROWN, President, Pittsburgh Cultural Trust
The Downtown Cultural District will have two new theaters opened by then -- the Art Cinema and the new home of the Pittsburgh Public Theater. We will have a beautiful two-tiered riverfront park in place along Fort Duquesne Boulevard and the 10th Street Bypass. One or two more hotels will be under way, along with the development of residential space. Liberty Avenue will be very different, with the rehabilitation and fascade restoration of most of the small buildings, which will house restaurants, clubs and more upscale retail.
Mid-size arts organizations that rooted themselves in the 1990s will continue to flourish with the requisite support, and small organizations, particularly the African-American ones, will continue to grow. The challenge will be in funding.
BARBARA LUDEROWSKI, Executive/Artistic Director, Mattress Factory
The North Side will be the center of cultural activity, with the presence of the Mattress Factory, The Andy Warhol Museum, the Carnegie Science Center, Manchester Craftsman's Guild and others and with the proposed redevelopment of the Federal-North Corridor to house a world-class performing space for musicians, filmmakers, dancers, artists and actors. ... The neighborhood will be known as a vibrant, multicultural community that nurtures and encourages creativity, education and expression.
In the next century, arts organizations will be the first to be approached for assistance in redevelopment projects. Many of the wonderful vacant and unused warehouse buildings in Pittsburgh will be renovated and occupied as
artists' residences and studios, making the region a hub of artistic activity.
B-TREE, performance poet
I see hope, I see life. Whenever people are oppressed so much, voices have to come up, and these are usually artistic voices. I see a cultural uprising. I see a tidal wave of art and the beginnings of a cultural renaissance. Instead of sports putting Pittsburgh on the map, art is going to do it. Music is going to give Western Pennsylvania an artistic rush.
BEAUFORT LONGEST JR., Executive director, Health Policy Institute
The most important change that will probably be with us as the century turns is one that has already begun: consolidation in the health-care system. ... So much of the care that people receive now in hospitals will increasingly be provided outside of hospitals. A lot will be done for people in their homes. ... In part, this is due to better technology, but it's also driven by the need to contain costs.
(Another aspect of consolidation) will be a more tightly, vertically integrated system. The health-care system will take care of people throughout their needs. It starts when they're healthy, then follows them through illnesses, hospital stays, rehabilitation, long-term care and, finally, hospice care.
Dr. JAMES McMASTER, of orthopedic dept. at Allegheny General Hosptial and president of Allegheny-Singer Research Institute
Due to our understanding of genetics and particularly the genetics of immunology, we will be able in the next decade to apply "genetic engineering" to practical, real-time medical problems. This will be accomplished through xeno (cross-species) transplants and lead to the ability to control, if not eradicate, AIDS, and have a direct impact on a variety of malignancies and how they are treated. It will dramatically impact the area of organ transplantation.
The economic upheaval in medicine at this time will be a relatively brief event, simply due to the fact that our country realizes that our biomedical industries represent our most valuable and most exportable asset. ... This region will continue to grow as a center for basic biomedical science and the translation of that into practical science, attracting businesses large and small and people to work here.
KHALID RAHEEM, President and executive director, Gang-Peace Council of Western Pennsylvania
I am gravely concerned about some of the recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions on issues such as affirmative action and ... voting districts ... I hope they will spur the African-American community to act and reaffirm its own commitment to build and to stengthen institutions that promote equality. ... The rise of all-white militia groups opposed to the U.S. government and its programs that benefit people of color and an emerging police state also gravely concern me.
But I have faith and confidence in our Creator and youth. Even with all the bad news, I'm hopeful, faithful and optimistic that the youth will take the bull by its horns and hold this country accountable for its past injustices ... and make it better for the future.
TIM STEVENS, President, Pittsburgh chapter of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People
We are entering a very serious moment in this nation's history in race relations. The partnership that was so evident for many parts of this nation, particularly in the early '60s. . . what has since occurred is much more a concentration on the table of economic and employment opportunity. These battles are much more serious and profound in their effect on the economic and social conditions of the black community than if black folks and white folks can sit together at a counter.
I think race is becoming more of an issue now, and we are nowhere close to being colorblind in Pittsburgh, Western Pennsylvania or this nation. The level of this problem is too deep for (black people) to do it alone. We have to form solid, powerful, passionate partnerships with people of good will, whoever they are and wherever they're from.
DAN ROONEY, owner of the Steelers
What I see is more activity on a global basis because of the explosion of television. ... There will be great numbers of TV stations looking for programming, and I think American sports are very, very good as a television medium. We've done it and honed it so it's really ready (to go globally. The NFL is) already doing that in Europe.
The sports will be competing against each other rather than among themselves. I think you will see labor peace in all sports. If you don't see labor peace (in a particular sport), they won't be here.
MARK SAUER, president, Pirates
The Pirates will be well into their second century of play in Pittsburgh, housed in what will be regarded as the best ballpark in the best Downtown area in the country. Baseball will have cured its labor problems and will be regaining its status as the national pastime.
HOWARD BALDWIN, owner of the Penguins
Sports teams' values will continue to grow as cities and governments realize the dramatic economic impact they have on a community and region. Governments will and should assist in creating an environment where teams will be able to compete with all size markets. This is a necessity due to rising costs. As well, electronically, teams' rights values will shift from national to local because of the new distribution capabilities that are on the horizon and, in certain markets, already there.
JOHN OLIVER III, President, Western Pennsylvania Conservancy and Gov. Ridge's nominee to head the new state Dept. of Conservation and Natural Resources
I see government conducting environmental business in a much more positive, reasonable, user-friendly way. The means would be using market incentives, and the concept would be one of assistance and help rather than command and control.
The passage of an Industrial Reuse bill puts all the hundreds of acres of abandoned, old manufacturing sites along the rivers back into productive use by removing the very strict liability requirements.
I see Pittsburgh and communities throughout Western Pennsylvania giving a lot of attention to neighborhood beautification. This adds to the quality of life, and that's important also to the economic well-being of this region.
JOHN HERBST, Executive director, Historical Society of Western Pennsylvania
Two issues immediately come to mind when thinking about our future as a region and a people: First, I think we should remember that the region functioned most effectively in the last part of the 19th century because its major industries were directed by relatively few people. It will be up to us to replace that kind of leadership with public policies formulated by an enlightened electorate. ... Second, I think many people in Western Pennsylvania have traditionally defined themselves in terms of their ethnic identity. ... As we move forward, the trick will be to retain what makes us special.
JOHN MURRAY, president, Duquesne University
I think we have not yet begun to appreciate what the information explosion really means. ... It will become absolutely mandatory for everyone to know how to use the hardware -- it's going to be as common as a pen and a piece of paper is now.
I think the three major universities are the bedrock of the future in Pittsburgh. With the various types of research (Duquesne, Pitt and Carnegie Mellon are doing), the universities are even more critical to the future of the economy of the region.
I (also) am chairing the Compac 21 committee (to prepare Allegheny County for the 21st century). We're concerned that the county has the proper structure, organization and function to compete with counties around the country.
GRACE ANN GEIBEL, president, Carlow College
Some things won't change in Western Pennsylvania: Colleges will have to continue to prepare students for the work place. Competence, not gender, will determine who leads in the next century. ... Lifelong continuing education, which is what education is really all about, will become a cornerstone of successful colleges in the fast-paced years ahead.
JUDY DODD, nutrition consultant for Giant Eagle; former president, American Dietetic Association
(Families recognize that) food is more than a package. I see people coming back to scratch cooking. I see young couples shopping for fresh ingredients and wanting to know how to cook.
EARL BUFORD, Pittsburgh police chief
I can see the city police department being completely automated, with computers in all vehicles and pocket computers on officers walking beats. ... I can envision equipment that will be able to scan a crime scene to pick up fingerprints and do fiber and hair analysis.
I see more computer crime, more white-collar type of crimes taking place. Criminals will become more sophisticated. There won't be as much one-on-one theft, but the theft of a whole department store. Property will become more theft-proof. We can envision signal devices built right into the fabric of cars, for example, that will be easy to trace via satellites ... throughout the whole world.
KATE ARONSON, lead singer of Squonk Opera
I'm so unconnected with the corporate. I think corporations will become even bigger and thereby become a less important part of my life. That way I can live life on the fringes, in obscurity. That's where all the freedom is. I like Pittsburgh because it tends to stay the same size. I think a city this
size lends itself to creative experimentation because its not like N.Y. or L.A., where there is a constant push to produce. I see Pittsburgh becoming an even easier place to live financially.
Doug Oster writes a blog, "Growing With Doug," exclusively at PG+, a members-only web site of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Our introduction to PG+ gives you all the details.
