The National Bureau of Economic Research has not officially declared an end to the recession, but with new numbers from the U.S. Commerce Department, it could. The agency reported that after four straight quarters of decline, the economy grew in the third quarter at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, its fastest rate in two years.
Further, the National Association for Business Economics reported more companies planning to add employees in the next six months than to cut them. And the president's Council of Economic Advisors said business spending on equipment and software, which peaked in the fourth quarter of 2007, was beginning to creep upward again. Finally, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of housing prices rose for the third month in a row in August, for a total gain of 3 percent since May.
The economy may have come out of its coma, but it is not yet dancing. The Commerce Department reported that home sales were down by 3.6 percent in September (because of rising prices?), and that consumer spending overall was down by one-half of a percent, the first decline in five months. One might think people are afraid to spend. Oh, wait -- the Conference Board reported consumer confidence fell in October. In fact, its measure of how consumers feel about their present situation (as opposed to future expectations) fell to its lowest point in 26 years.
The bad news: The state Department of Labor and Industry reported the Pittsburgh region's jobless rate rose in September to 8.1 percent, its highest level in 23 years.
The good news: That's still lower than the national unemployment rate of 9.8 percent.
Hey, we take our good news where we can get it.
Bankruptcy court, that is. The Max & Erma's restaurant chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. Attorney Robert O. Lampl said the company will continue to operate normally as it seeks to negotiate with creditors.
Centaur PA and Valley View Downs, divisions of Indianapolis gaming company Centaur LLC, also filed for Chapter 11 last week, stalling plans to build a $425 million racetrack casino in Lawrence County. The company said it took the action to preserve $50 million that it needs to pay for its slots license.
"The recovery has started, but in its early phases it won't feel like a recovery." -- Nariman Behravish, IHS Global Insight chief economist.
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