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Supreme Court race 'a dead heat,' says pollster
ELECTION 2009
Sunday, October 18, 2009

HARRISBURG -- Before he was a trial judge or an appellate judge, lawyer Jack Panella had a private practice in Northampton County, where he sometimes represented sports figures, including professional boxers and race car drivers.

One of his clients -- and still one of his friends -- was former world heavyweight boxing champ Larry Holmes. Judge Panella said that during a visit to his home near Easton a few years ago, Mr. Holmes joked, "I paid for this room in Jack's house."

Judge Panella, a Superior Court judge since 2004 and a Common Pleas judge for 13 years before that, said he's used to dealing with tough opponents. Part of his job in representing Mr. Holmes was negotiating contracts with famed boxing promoter Don King.

But on Nov. 3, Democrat Panella will duke it out with another tough opponent, Judge Joan Orie Melvin, a Republican from Marshall, who is one of his colleagues on Superior Court. They are running for the lone vacant seat on the state Supreme Court.

"It's a huge race, for several reasons," said Philadelphia political analyst Larry Ceisler. "Panella has strong support from labor and trial lawyers, and if he wins, it's further proof that Pennsylvania has gone Democratic, and that could give momentum to the Democratic gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates next year.

"But if Orie Melvin can win, it sends a troubling message to Democrats," especially since they outnumber Republicans by more than 1 million registered voters.

The two Superior Court judges differ in some obvious ways: male vs. female, Democrat vs. Republican, Eastern Pennsylvanian vs. Western Pennsylvanian. Judge Orie Melvin won a three-way GOP primary in May, while Judge Panella was unopposed on the Democratic side.

Judge Orie Melvin comes from a well-known political family that includes state Senate Republican Whip Jane Orie. Judge Orie Melvin has been on the Superior Court bench since 1997. Before that she also was a trial judge and served as chief magistrate of Pittsburgh's municipal courts, the first woman in that post.

In Allegheny County, "Most magistrates are Democrats, but her fellow magistrates consistently praised her," said county Republican Chairman Jim Roddey. "She's had an exemplary career on Common Pleas and Superior courts. She's a person of principle -- she didn't want to take the [2005] pay raise."

When the Supreme Court said she couldn't refuse the raise, she took it but then gave it back to the state treasury, along with annual cost-of-living adjustments.

Best of all, from Mr. Roddey's viewpoint, is that she isn't an "activist judge" who interprets the law according to her personal political spin.

"On the bench, she follows the state and federal constitutions; she doesn't try to create law," he said. "She gives everyone a level playing field."

Despite the Democrats' sizeable edge in voter registration, Mr. Roddey thinks Judge Orie Melvin will appeal to many from the opposite party and win on Nov. 3.

State Democratic Chairman T. J. Rooney, who lives in the Lehigh Valley and knows Judge Panella well, obviously disagrees.

"For two decades Jack has been the kind of guy who distinguishes himself and rises to the top," said Mr. Rooney, a former state legislator. "He's a born leader and a man of great intellect. Those are tremendous qualifications for a person to serve on the state's highest court."

Christopher Borick, a professor/pollster at Muhlenberg College, agrees with Mr. Ceisler that this statewide race has implications for 2010.

"This has been a great decade for Democrats, but if Republicans can win this race, it could be a signal that next year could be a good year for a Republican resurgence," Mr. Borick said.

Although partisan politics isn't supposed to have a role in Supreme Court actions, the top brass of both parties are focusing attention on the Panella-Orie Melvin race. After the 2010 census is completed, the Legislature will have to redraw the lines of the 103 House districts and the 50 Senate districts to account for changes in population.

The Supreme Court is now evenly split along party lines -- three Republican justices and three Democrats, with one vacancy. So the winner of this race will swing the balance to 4-3 for one party. The high court may have to hear lawsuits challenging the way the new House and Senate district lines are drawn, and that could have a bearing on which party gets an edge in certain districts.

According to a recent poll done by Dane & Associates for the online political Web site GrassrootsPA.com, the two candidates are close. The poll, released Oct. 7, showed Judge Panella with support from 38 percent of the 866 voters sampled, while Judge Orie Melvin was at 35 percent with the rest undecided.

"If you look at how close our poll was, I think a great deal of the outcome is going to come down to turnout, and which side gets its voters out to the polls," said GrassrootsPA founder Christopher Lilik.

Judge Panella's lead "falls within the margin of error [of 2.75 percent], so although he has a slight edge over Orie Melvin, for all intents and purposes it's a dead heat," said Tony Dane, president of the polling firm. "Whoever has the better grass-roots organization will most likely win the race."

As for labor union endorsements, Democrat Panella is understandably far ahead. More than 40 labor groups, including the Service Employees International Union, the Building and Construction Trades Council, the state Corrections Officers Association and the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO are backing him.

The Teamsters Joint Council 40 in Pittsburgh also endorsed him, even though the statewide Teamsters organization is supporting Judge Orie Melvin. Also in her camp are the the Pennsylvania Builders Association and the Pennsylvania State Troopers Association.

In regard to campaign cash, Judge Panella also was far ahead in mid-September, when the most recent fundraising reports were filed with the state.

Thanks to contributions from labor unions and trial lawyers, he had raised $1.1 million this year and had just over $900,000 left on Sept. 14. His biggest contributor -- at $500,000 -- was the Committee for a Better Tomorrow, a political action committee of the Philadelphia Trial Lawyers Association. A Philly local of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers gave $100,000 and the Mid-Atlantic Laborers Union in Boston gave $50,000. He has started running TV ads in some markets.

Judge Orie Melvin had raised $418,000 this year and had $190,000 left on Sept. 14. Her biggest contributor, at $100,000, was also the trial lawyers' Committee For a Better Tomorrow. The Philly law firm of Saul Ewing gave $5,000, and another law firm, K&L Gates, gave $1,000, as did the Highmark Health political action committee.


Correction/Clarification: (Published Oct. 20, 2009) The Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association has endorsed Superior Court Judge Jack Panella, a Democrat, for state Supreme Court in the Nov. 3 election. The association didn't endorse Superior Court Judge Joan Orie Melvin, a Republican, as incorrectly stated in this article as originally published Oct. 18, 2009. Also, the National Rifle Association endorsed Judge Orie Melvin in the May primary, but the NRA hasn't made an endorsement for the Nov. 3 election.
Bureau Chief Tom Barnes can be reached at tbarnes@post-gazette.com or 717-787-4254.
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First published on October 18, 2009 at 12:00 am
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