Back-to-school shopping needs apparently outweighed consumers' concerns about the recession in September, allowing a lot of retailers to report better sales than expected and even, in the case of several chains, raise earnings guidance for the quarter.

By one trade group's calculations, sales in established stores at about 30 chains rose 0.1 percent during the month compared with the same period in 2008 when the financial markets were terrifying both regulators and consumers. It might not sound like much of an increase, but the news was welcome.

"Small as that gain was, it was the first year-over-year increase since July 2008, and marked a significant psychological turning point for the industry performance, as well as the start of the retail recovery," said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the New York-based International Council of Shopping Centers, in his analysis of the results.

Others agreed. "September's numbers are a good sign that retail sales are on a path to recovery," wrote Frank Badillo, senior economist at Retail Forward, a consulting and research firm in Columbus, Ohio.

Yet they and other industry observers cautioned that a late Labor Day this year delayed some back-to-school shopping and that it was easy to show an improvement over the rocky fall months of 2008.

"It's still unclear whether the consumer is back or not," said Steven Baumgarten, an analyst with PNC Capital Advisors in Philadelphia who noted about half of the chains that reported results still reported decreases in sales at stores open at least a year, a key industry statistic sometimes called comparable store sales.

Although the biggest industry player, Wal-Mart, no longer participates in the monthly sales revelations that help investors track how things are going in retail, data coming out of other chains showed that discounters appeared to be drawing in shoppers.

Target, which reported a 1.7 percent drop in comparable store sales, said the size of transactions in its stores was down during the month but that was partially offset by more transactions taking place. The company said its third-quarter results would beat analysts' expectations.

Both J.C. Penney and Kohl's raised their earnings guidance. Kohl's comparable store sales rose 5.5 percent in September, while Penney's dropped 1.4 percent, a better performance than the 3 percent to 6 percent drop that company officials had expected.

TJX Companies, parent of the off-price chains T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, proved especially popular, with comparable store sales results up 7 percent over last year. "We saw strong trends continue in September and customer traffic counts accelerated beyond their already high levels," said President and CEO Carol Meyrowitz, in the company's announcement.

Closer to home, South Side teen retailer American Eagle Outfitters seemed to be finding its footing. The company said comparable store sales were flat in the five weeks ended Oct. 3, a better-than-expected performance helped in part by a boost from the late Labor Day, but also by a good week toward the end of the month that seemed to indicate the consumers liked its new merchandise and its latest promotional offers.

American Eagle also raised its third-quarter earnings guidance. The company now is projecting earnings in the range of 24 to 26 cents per share, rather than the 22 to 25 cents per share earlier projected. Last year, the retailer produced earnings of 30 cents per share in the quarter.

Seeing so many retailers raise guidance and beat sales estimates made Mr. Baumgarten wonder if the bar had been set too low because it's been such a rough year. Even if that were the case, he said it was good to see so many chains managing their inventories well. "You've got to take your hat off to them."

Many retailers have cut back hard. In August, the National Retail Federation trade group in Washington, D.C., released a report that said import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports was expected to drop almost 19 percent compared with last year. That would be the lowest level in seven years.

Even if the consumer shopping exodus has started to ease, observers said the road back to better sales might not be smooth and that not all retailers would benefit to the same extent. The results released yesterday seemed to show sales of home-related goods continuing to struggle while categories such as shoes, accessories and electronics did better.

Meanwhile, Retail Forward's monthly survey of shoppers' intentions found that while 38 percent of those queried in August planned to spend less in the next month -- the lowest number since February 2008 -- that jumped to 47 percent by September.

Target CEO Gregg Steinhafel's comment in his company's sales announcement illustrated the wariness with which many are approaching the holiday shopping season. "While our outlook for the third quarter has improved, we remain cautious in our expectations for fourth-quarter results."

"Money Q&A" and "Company Town" are featured exclusively at PG+, a members-only web site of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Our introduction to PG+ gives you all the details.